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The data I've seen is already adjusted I believe, because even absolute count shows more hospitalization and death due to Covid, and its more likely less people
by didibus 5y ago
The data I've seen is already adjusted I believe, because even absolute count shows more hospitalization and death due to Covid, and its more likely less people have been exposed to Covid than have received the vaccine.
My data is EMA in EU says for under 40 year old, of 197 million vaccines, only 321 had the heart inflammation and 5 died from it, the rest recovered.
While CDC data says in the US till now, for under 49 year old, there's been 60902 hospitalizations for Covid (3782 under 18yr), with 24 deaths in the under 18 year range.
The population in US for under 49 year old is 210 million. So even assuming worse case, that every under 49 year old in the US got exposed to Covid, we get:
Vaccine (under 40yr - in EU):
321 hospitalization out of 197 million ~= 0.00016%
5 deaths out of 197 million ~= 0.0000025%
Covid (under 49yr - in US):
60902 hospitalization out of 210 million (best case, likely inflated) ~= 0.03%
24 deaths (under 18yr) out of 82 million (best case, likely inflated) ~= 0.00003%
Unfortunately, I find it hard to find good data, that's why for one I need to use data from EU EMA, and the other I'm using data from US CDC, and one includes the 40-49yr old group while the other doesn't. But I think those are far enough apart anyway that to me it seems clear that Covid even in the best case, where I assume everyone in the US in the age range was exposed to it, is much more likely to put you in the hospital or kill you, even if you are younger. But better data might be needed to confirm, especially data restricted to the under 18 year old age group, since their chances of getting the heart inflammation seems higher, and their chances of Covid complications is lower.
- bombcar 5y agoThe other calculation would be the number of those who get the vaccine and still get (lesser?) covid.