Pei mentions in passing that China's median age will rise significantly, but he spends no time on the causes, and so kind of misses the point. China's working

Pei mentions in passing that China's median age will rise significantly, but he spends no time on the causes, and so kind of misses the point. China's working age population will decline by about 250M people, about a quarter, by 2040.[1] (Aside, its elderly population will rise by about 200M in the same period.) GDP is produced by working age people, so this decline is the headwind that China faces. It's also why the Chinese state is trying to boost fertility,[2] in a heavy-handed, state-ish way.[3] GDP is consumed in raising children. 1. This is known, because nearly everyone who will be of working age in 2040 is alive today, and immigration and emigration are negligible for China. Working age pop: https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/chinas-demographic-outlook-to-2040-and-its-implications-an-overview/ https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/chinas-demograp... 2. Xi's new emphasis on "common prosperity". 3. Seeing Like a State, worth reading. https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300078152/seeing-state https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300078152/seeing-state