5 ms·

Funnily enough, I’ve lived in a zero covid area (nova scotia) and eliminating it was actually a far easier way of living than the “learn to live with it” approa

by graeme 5y ago

Funnily enough, I’ve lived in a zero covid area (nova scotia) and eliminating it was actually a far easier way of living than the “learn to live with it” approach practiced elsewhere. You have less travel, and you have to react quickly to small threats, but in exchange you get months and months of essentially normalcy. I think it would still be feasible for the rich world to do in spring 2022, when it is warm season again, if we get tired of this. It could then be maintained with border agreements. We don’t accept endemic tuberculosis even though that is airborne. The other thing that would make it easier would be if we actually started acting in the knowledge that it is airborne. We have treated SARS-Cov-2 as a droplet and fomite disease. This has meant we avoid easy and effective solutions (HEPA, open windows, co2 monitors, N95) in favour of inconvenient and ineffective solutions (six feet rule, hand washing, no hugs, deep cleaning). You’re infinitely safer giving a hug and holding breath for a couple seconds (if you choose) than going into an unventilated meeting six feet apart. (I wash my hands of course, but it is a colossal error to make that the centerpoint of public health advice) Pretty much every country that aimed at elimination achieved it pretty easily! Or at least for less aggregate effort than countries aiming at mitigation. For some reason we chose the latter.

perl4ever 5y ago
>The other thing that would make it easier would be if we actually started acting in the knowledge that it is airborne If you have a sincerely held belief that is controversial, then it's helpful to provide information about why you hold the belief and how you came to reject some other consensus.
- graeme 5y ago
  The CDC page is pretty clear about aerosol transmission methods. And that’s only updated as of May 7th: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/sars-cov-2-transmission.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-br... The widely documented superspreader events are impossible to explain by droplet or fomite transmission. Literally impossible. You think an infected bar patron goes around within 6 feet of 80 other people and shakes their hands or breathes on them? 224 people were infected at this Quebec city gym. Aerosol is the only viable mechanism to do that: https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/superspreading-event-canada-megagym-quebec-1.5985744 https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/superspreading-event-canada-m... Here’s a couple articles summing things up: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/why-arent-we-talking-more-about-airborne-transmission/614737/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/why-arent... https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/07/opinion/coronavirus-airborne-transmission.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/07/opinion/coronavirus-airbo...
  - perl4ever 5y ago
    Sorry for the misunderstanding, the possibly controversial beliefs I was referring to were such as - "we" haven't been acting as if it was airborne, that there is a sharp distinction between droplets and airborne particles, and that the precautions that are appropriate are as you listed and the others are mostly useless. Airborne particles are indeed in the CDC FAQ; I don't know how far back that goes. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html
    - graeme 5y ago
      Cdc added them may 2021 or so. The WHO still denies airborne spread. Plenty of jurisdictions still vigorously fight against recognizing aerosol spread as it would involve more work to fight. For example Ontario: https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2021/08/26/ontario-fought-against-treating-covid-19-as-an-airborne-threat-in-hospitals-and-won-with-the-fourth-wave-bearing-down-was-that-the-right-move.html https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2021/08/26/ontario-fought-a... And yes, if you have a virus that cam infect 245 people in the gym through the air, then ventilation is more important than handwashing. I’m not sure anyone has even established evidence for fomite spread! I expect it is a mechanism too but the point is it has been treated as default for some reason despite lack of evidence and evidence for other methods.
      - perl4ever 5y ago
        >Cdc added them may 2021 or so The Delta variant took over in the US around the beginning of July. Doesn't the type of spread you are harping on mainly pertain to Delta? If so, then the CDC was anticipating it a month or more in advance; that doesn't seem like a belated response.
josephcsible 5y ago
> We don’t accept endemic tuberculosis even though that is airborne. Isn't the R0 of tuberculosis way lower than the R0 of COVID, especially the delta variant?
- graeme 5y ago
  Yes, but TB has been as high as 3.5-4.3, depending on local conditions: https://theunion.org/our-work/covid-19/covid-19-and-tb-frequently-asked-questions#q2 https://theunion.org/our-work/covid-19/covid-19-and-tb-frequ... We do lots of work to contain it.
IAmGraydon 5y ago
What I find most interesting about this pandemic is how everyone seems to have become a virologist, epidemiologist, or both! The medical schools must be bursting at the seams. Tell me - where is it that you got your degree from?

by graeme 5y ago

perl4ever 5y ago

>The other thing that would make it easier would be if we actually started acting in the knowledge that it is airborne If you have a sincerely held belief that is controversial, then it's helpful to provide information about why you hold the belief and how you came to reject some other consensus.

graeme 5y ago
The CDC page is pretty clear about aerosol transmission methods. And that’s only updated as of May 7th: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/sars-cov-2-transmission.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-br... The widely documented superspreader events are impossible to explain by droplet or fomite transmission. Literally impossible. You think an infected bar patron goes around within 6 feet of 80 other people and shakes their hands or breathes on them? 224 people were infected at this Quebec city gym. Aerosol is the only viable mechanism to do that: https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/superspreading-event-canada-megagym-quebec-1.5985744 https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/superspreading-event-canada-m... Here’s a couple articles summing things up: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/why-arent-we-talking-more-about-airborne-transmission/614737/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/why-arent... https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/07/opinion/coronavirus-airborne-transmission.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/07/opinion/coronavirus-airbo...
- perl4ever 5y ago
  Sorry for the misunderstanding, the possibly controversial beliefs I was referring to were such as - "we" haven't been acting as if it was airborne, that there is a sharp distinction between droplets and airborne particles, and that the precautions that are appropriate are as you listed and the others are mostly useless. Airborne particles are indeed in the CDC FAQ; I don't know how far back that goes. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html
  - graeme 5y ago
    Cdc added them may 2021 or so. The WHO still denies airborne spread. Plenty of jurisdictions still vigorously fight against recognizing aerosol spread as it would involve more work to fight. For example Ontario: https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2021/08/26/ontario-fought-against-treating-covid-19-as-an-airborne-threat-in-hospitals-and-won-with-the-fourth-wave-bearing-down-was-that-the-right-move.html https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2021/08/26/ontario-fought-a... And yes, if you have a virus that cam infect 245 people in the gym through the air, then ventilation is more important than handwashing. I’m not sure anyone has even established evidence for fomite spread! I expect it is a mechanism too but the point is it has been treated as default for some reason despite lack of evidence and evidence for other methods.
    - perl4ever 5y ago
      >Cdc added them may 2021 or so The Delta variant took over in the US around the beginning of July. Doesn't the type of spread you are harping on mainly pertain to Delta? If so, then the CDC was anticipating it a month or more in advance; that doesn't seem like a belated response.

josephcsible 5y ago

> We don’t accept endemic tuberculosis even though that is airborne. Isn't the R0 of tuberculosis way lower than the R0 of COVID, especially the delta variant?

graeme 5y ago
Yes, but TB has been as high as 3.5-4.3, depending on local conditions: https://theunion.org/our-work/covid-19/covid-19-and-tb-frequently-asked-questions#q2 https://theunion.org/our-work/covid-19/covid-19-and-tb-frequ... We do lots of work to contain it.

IAmGraydon 5y ago

What I find most interesting about this pandemic is how everyone seems to have become a virologist, epidemiologist, or both! The medical schools must be bursting at the seams. Tell me - where is it that you got your degree from?