9 ms·

Why Don’t They Believe Us?

40 points by andrenth 5y ago

mikewarot 5y ago
WOW... there's a lot of insight and work put into that rant. I personally have little faith those leading the CDC et al, yet I and my family are all fully vaccinated. At this point I'm trusting the inertia built up in the system, not the people leading it. I wish things would improve, but I'm too exhausted (by long covid) to waste my energy on hope.
aaroninsf 5y ago
Justifying stupidity with reference to other stupidity still stupid. Details at 11, after these words.
ojisan_seiuchi 5y ago
> Meanwhile, Texas and Florida, which largely remained open and avoided draconian lockdowns, seem to have made out OK. Kids have been going to school, businesses have stayed open. You look at COVID death rates by state, and neither Florida nor Texas cracks the top half. The arguments are passionate, but in at least one case objectively wrong. The current death rate in Florida is 1.15 per 100,000, putting it at #1 in the U.S. Likewise, the current COVID-19 death rate in TX is 0.81 per 100,000 putting that state at #6 in the U.S.[1] [1]: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html
- torstenvl 5y ago
  That opinion piece is from August 10th, before the current wave impacted TX and FL as much as they have been affected throughout the middle-end of August. In any case, you're looking at the current average, which is obviously skewed toward the states experiencing a current wave. Texas has an overall COVID-19 death rate of 2,008/1,000,000 people, which is 1/10000th of a percentage point higher than the national average. Florida has an overall COVID-19 death rate of 2,138/1,000,000 people, which is still much better than New Jersey (3,032), New York (2,823), Massachusetts (2,653), Rhode Island (2,618), and Connecticut (2,354), and is certainly impacted by the high number of elderly and retirees in Florida. As for current rates, California has not-quite-twice the population of Florida (39.5mm vs 21.5mm) but a 3-day mov avg. death rate three times as high (119 vs. 39). Obviously, statistics can be interpreted a lot of ways. Lies, damn lies, and statistics, of course. FL's 7-day mov avg (64) is more than half of CA's 7-day mov avg. (94), for example. But the fact remains that the two states with the least restrictive lockdowns did not end up the two states with the worst COVID-19 death rates over the course of the pandemic so far. At a minimum, that constitutes a reasonable basis to question whether the expert consensus is sufficiently based in evidence as to support unprecedented restrictions of liberty in the country that ostensibly leads the free world. Sources: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/FL https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/FL https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/CA https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/CA
  - lost-found 5y ago
    Florida changed how they report deaths early last month. They went from counting them on the date they were recorded to counting them on the date of death. This is almost never the same day, often it is quite delayed. Florida’s recent daily deaths are significantly understated. https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article253796898.html https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article25379689...
    - torstenvl 5y ago
      Thank you, I didn't know that. That's helpful regarding the discrepancy between 3-day and 7-day moving averages compared to other states.
  - JakeAl 5y ago
    And don't forget to factor in age group, meaning the national average last week per capita for 18-74 was 5.x and Florida has a lot of old retired people, many moving out of places like NY this year. Then there's Texas with greater than 1M illegal immigrants most of whom were said to be infected, which I'm going to guess these factors skews the numbers for this year.
legobmw99 5y ago
This article is long on emotions and short on… anything else, really. Data, for starters, or an understanding that individual events don’t determine the truth or falsity of claims like that institutional racism is real and present in America. It’s not clear to me if the author is taking on these views themselves, or just presenting what someone _might_ think, but I think it’s combining and conflating a lot of disconnected things to justify a viewpoint which can be deadly to hold
- _flagged_ 5y ago
  Which data would you like? The one that's been purposely suppressed[0] and deemed "wrong" early on and got scientists into trouble because it went against the status quo mentality? [0] Insert <citation needed> here to smugly rebuke this statement.
- strawhatguy 5y ago
  And what data would you use? When it's quite clear that the media and the agencies are distorting the data, or at best have erroneous and uncorrected data, then trust is lost. Ultimately, you do have to trust your source of said data, and that's precisely what's been discounted, several times. Maybe the COVID data is correct right now, but how does one really know? Not many of us go out and try to collect it ourselves.
  - legobmw99 5y ago
    There are a lot of claims in the article besides COVID policy effectiveness, for starters. They present the racism of the MAGA movement through a single debunked anecdote, rather than hate crime statistics. Policy brutality is presented not as a reality which has numbers and history but as an event that happened one time to one man, etc. As for COVID data, it would be foolish to claim that the data we have is perfect. After all, we had a seemingly official policy of “if we don’t do tests more, we won’t have more cases” for the first month of the spread in the US. And without a doubt, there are people with stuff to gain by artificially inflating the numbers (incendiary media, etc) and artificially suppressing them (governors, etc). But, I think it’s also difficult to form a coherent claim that the data available is, in aggregate, completely bogus. If you slap an error bar of even 20% on the case numbers, I don’t think my ultimate interpretation of that would not change very much, but YMMV
jleyank 5y ago
The red states had several waves to prepare their responses, then a vaccine appeared. One would think these two factors would have guaranteed excellent response vs later COVID waves. Instead, they planted their heads in the sand, blew off the vaccine and are leading n America if not the world in cases. And deaths are rising quickly. They just threw it all away, “reasons”.
- torstenvl 5y ago
  Ah, yes, those red state rednecks and their COVID-19 death rates barely better than backwaters like... (checks notes)... Belgium (2,180 deaths/1,000,000 people). Sorry for the sarcasm, but I don't know how better to express my frustration at this kind of stereotyping. Americans and the world should be in this together, rather than making this another divisive culture war political shibboleth. Indeed, I submit the hypothesis that this disdain makes it more likely that rural America will distrust you when you try to tell them what's in their best interest.
  - jleyank 5y ago
    Sorry, but I have difficulty coming up with descriptive words for people who see what might keep their people alive (watching what’s happening elsewhere) and yet fail to profit from the data. Edit: google says the rate for Belgium has been flat this year. This is what I’m saying - after watching Italy and nyc and maybe India people should have been prepared.
pandemicthrow 5y ago
Probably my 10th account in the past year or so; the others got flagged for bringing up points that this article brings up. Maybe not in such a nice way, but still. The rampant suppression of "wrongthink" on HN is just utterly fucking baffling. I don't know what to say beyond that, but I've lost respect for any kind of serious discussion on HN. Go open up the Donald Trump Is Now President thread and see the emotional outpouring on this platform. I sincerely wish most non-tech subjects should be forbidden - especially those that incite emotional outrage (take that shit to reddit).
cyanydeez 5y ago
this is GIGO
DenisM 5y ago
Well, that's a lot of preaching to the choir. Everyone who read through this was already agreeing with it going in. Everyone who generally disagrees bailed out after the first paragraph. However the collection of such incidents with attendant citations is commendable in its own right.
drewrv 5y ago
This article feels like it’s saying “Imagine you’re ignorant of how elections work. Imagine you also don’t now much about history, or about statistics. Imagine you’re too lazy to google the word “gender” and read Wikipedia. Now do you understand why someone like this would be skeptical of a new vaccine!” I understand perfectly well why massive amounts of people are forgoing vaccination. Right wing media and the social media ecosystem have twisted their brains so bad they’d prefer to go to a farm supply store and take horse dewormer.
explodingman 5y ago
The article points out failings of political/cultural elites as a way of casting doubt on the competence of scientific elites. The analogy is false, The proposition that the vaccines are safe and effective, and predictions around Brexit or Trump, come from completely separate fields. The two "elites" in those two fields hardly ever overlap, use very different methods, have quite different histories and different internal cultures. But the author did a very good job of it. Well written garbage.
sebelk 5y ago
"Why would people in one of the most welcoming, tolerant countries in the world" Wow, really? What country is he writing about? This statement lowers the price of the entire post ...

40 points by andrenth 5y ago

WOW... there's a lot of insight and work put into that rant. I personally have little faith those leading the CDC et al, yet I and my family are all fully vaccinated. At this point I'm trusting the inertia built up in the system, not the people leading it. I wish things would improve, but I'm too exhausted (by long covid) to waste my energy on hope.

aaroninsf 5y ago

Justifying stupidity with reference to other stupidity still stupid. Details at 11, after these words.

ojisan_seiuchi 5y ago

> Meanwhile, Texas and Florida, which largely remained open and avoided draconian lockdowns, seem to have made out OK. Kids have been going to school, businesses have stayed open. You look at COVID death rates by state, and neither Florida nor Texas cracks the top half. The arguments are passionate, but in at least one case objectively wrong. The current death rate in Florida is 1.15 per 100,000, putting it at #1 in the U.S. Likewise, the current COVID-19 death rate in TX is 0.81 per 100,000 putting that state at #6 in the U.S.[1] [1]: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html

torstenvl 5y ago
That opinion piece is from August 10th, before the current wave impacted TX and FL as much as they have been affected throughout the middle-end of August. In any case, you're looking at the current average, which is obviously skewed toward the states experiencing a current wave. Texas has an overall COVID-19 death rate of 2,008/1,000,000 people, which is 1/10000th of a percentage point higher than the national average. Florida has an overall COVID-19 death rate of 2,138/1,000,000 people, which is still much better than New Jersey (3,032), New York (2,823), Massachusetts (2,653), Rhode Island (2,618), and Connecticut (2,354), and is certainly impacted by the high number of elderly and retirees in Florida. As for current rates, California has not-quite-twice the population of Florida (39.5mm vs 21.5mm) but a 3-day mov avg. death rate three times as high (119 vs. 39). Obviously, statistics can be interpreted a lot of ways. Lies, damn lies, and statistics, of course. FL's 7-day mov avg (64) is more than half of CA's 7-day mov avg. (94), for example. But the fact remains that the two states with the least restrictive lockdowns did not end up the two states with the worst COVID-19 death rates over the course of the pandemic so far. At a minimum, that constitutes a reasonable basis to question whether the expert consensus is sufficiently based in evidence as to support unprecedented restrictions of liberty in the country that ostensibly leads the free world. Sources: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/FL https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/FL https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/CA https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/CA
- lost-found 5y ago
  Florida changed how they report deaths early last month. They went from counting them on the date they were recorded to counting them on the date of death. This is almost never the same day, often it is quite delayed. Florida’s recent daily deaths are significantly understated. https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article253796898.html https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article25379689...
  - torstenvl 5y ago
    Thank you, I didn't know that. That's helpful regarding the discrepancy between 3-day and 7-day moving averages compared to other states.
- JakeAl 5y ago
  And don't forget to factor in age group, meaning the national average last week per capita for 18-74 was 5.x and Florida has a lot of old retired people, many moving out of places like NY this year. Then there's Texas with greater than 1M illegal immigrants most of whom were said to be infected, which I'm going to guess these factors skews the numbers for this year.

legobmw99 5y ago

This article is long on emotions and short on… anything else, really. Data, for starters, or an understanding that individual events don’t determine the truth or falsity of claims like that institutional racism is real and present in America. It’s not clear to me if the author is taking on these views themselves, or just presenting what someone _might_ think, but I think it’s combining and conflating a lot of disconnected things to justify a viewpoint which can be deadly to hold

_flagged_ 5y ago
Which data would you like? The one that's been purposely suppressed[0] and deemed "wrong" early on and got scientists into trouble because it went against the status quo mentality? [0] Insert <citation needed> here to smugly rebuke this statement.
strawhatguy 5y ago
And what data would you use? When it's quite clear that the media and the agencies are distorting the data, or at best have erroneous and uncorrected data, then trust is lost. Ultimately, you do have to trust your source of said data, and that's precisely what's been discounted, several times. Maybe the COVID data is correct right now, but how does one really know? Not many of us go out and try to collect it ourselves.
- legobmw99 5y ago
  There are a lot of claims in the article besides COVID policy effectiveness, for starters. They present the racism of the MAGA movement through a single debunked anecdote, rather than hate crime statistics. Policy brutality is presented not as a reality which has numbers and history but as an event that happened one time to one man, etc. As for COVID data, it would be foolish to claim that the data we have is perfect. After all, we had a seemingly official policy of “if we don’t do tests more, we won’t have more cases” for the first month of the spread in the US. And without a doubt, there are people with stuff to gain by artificially inflating the numbers (incendiary media, etc) and artificially suppressing them (governors, etc). But, I think it’s also difficult to form a coherent claim that the data available is, in aggregate, completely bogus. If you slap an error bar of even 20% on the case numbers, I don’t think my ultimate interpretation of that would not change very much, but YMMV

jleyank 5y ago

The red states had several waves to prepare their responses, then a vaccine appeared. One would think these two factors would have guaranteed excellent response vs later COVID waves. Instead, they planted their heads in the sand, blew off the vaccine and are leading n America if not the world in cases. And deaths are rising quickly. They just threw it all away, “reasons”.

torstenvl 5y ago
Ah, yes, those red state rednecks and their COVID-19 death rates barely better than backwaters like... (checks notes)... Belgium (2,180 deaths/1,000,000 people). Sorry for the sarcasm, but I don't know how better to express my frustration at this kind of stereotyping. Americans and the world should be in this together, rather than making this another divisive culture war political shibboleth. Indeed, I submit the hypothesis that this disdain makes it more likely that rural America will distrust you when you try to tell them what's in their best interest.
- jleyank 5y ago
  Sorry, but I have difficulty coming up with descriptive words for people who see what might keep their people alive (watching what’s happening elsewhere) and yet fail to profit from the data. Edit: google says the rate for Belgium has been flat this year. This is what I’m saying - after watching Italy and nyc and maybe India people should have been prepared.

pandemicthrow 5y ago

Probably my 10th account in the past year or so; the others got flagged for bringing up points that this article brings up. Maybe not in such a nice way, but still. The rampant suppression of "wrongthink" on HN is just utterly fucking baffling. I don't know what to say beyond that, but I've lost respect for any kind of serious discussion on HN. Go open up the Donald Trump Is Now President thread and see the emotional outpouring on this platform. I sincerely wish most non-tech subjects should be forbidden - especially those that incite emotional outrage (take that shit to reddit).

cyanydeez 5y ago

this is GIGO

DenisM 5y ago

Well, that's a lot of preaching to the choir. Everyone who read through this was already agreeing with it going in. Everyone who generally disagrees bailed out after the first paragraph. However the collection of such incidents with attendant citations is commendable in its own right.

drewrv 5y ago

This article feels like it’s saying “Imagine you’re ignorant of how elections work. Imagine you also don’t now much about history, or about statistics. Imagine you’re too lazy to google the word “gender” and read Wikipedia. Now do you understand why someone like this would be skeptical of a new vaccine!” I understand perfectly well why massive amounts of people are forgoing vaccination. Right wing media and the social media ecosystem have twisted their brains so bad they’d prefer to go to a farm supply store and take horse dewormer.

explodingman 5y ago

The article points out failings of political/cultural elites as a way of casting doubt on the competence of scientific elites. The analogy is false, The proposition that the vaccines are safe and effective, and predictions around Brexit or Trump, come from completely separate fields. The two "elites" in those two fields hardly ever overlap, use very different methods, have quite different histories and different internal cultures. But the author did a very good job of it. Well written garbage.

sebelk 5y ago

"Why would people in one of the most welcoming, tolerant countries in the world" Wow, really? What country is he writing about? This statement lowers the price of the entire post ...