> Simple example are many famous artists. They used to be considered quacks, people who are a waste of canvas, but ended up being very influental and quite an i

> Simple example are many famous artists. They used to be considered quacks, people who are a waste of canvas, but ended up being very influental and quite an important part of our culture. Performance and public perception are not the same thing. One is much more steady and less susceptible to wild and capricious swings than the other. Most people have a fairly stable level of performance over time, except when dramatic or destructive events or behaviour interfere (such as drug abuse, stock market crashes, etc.) The millions of people who are stably employed and have been for years are clear evidence of this. If past performance was not an indicator of future performance, then work experience, resumes, and criminal histories are all meaningless. Past performance is evidence for the consistency of present behaviour.