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What I've always hated about that is there is a sense of an immutable judgement going forward if at some point you perform poorly. Surely it's obvious that that

What I've always hated about that is there is a sense of an immutable judgement going forward if at some point you perform poorly. Surely it's obvious that that idea is merely an approximation and life is somewhat more complex? Isn't it the case that if past performance is an indicator of future performance then there is no hope of improving anything? I really think there is quite serious denial of the possibility of bad things happening to people which effects their performance and it not being their fault, often with very serious consequences for them. I have a friend who had a family crisis occur during his A-levels; the impact on his future prospects was huge and he has had to struggle to stand a chance at getting a decent job. I personally had a family crisis during my degree which several impacted my performance and has destroyed my confidence, something which still impacts me today (though I did manage to get a 2:1 despite it all), does that mean I cannot perform well in the future? I understand what you're saying about there being an overall correlation but I really do think you have to be careful about it - on the whole, it may be true, but it's the individual edge cases that matter, and adopting that position as if it was some immutable fact is dangerous.

djm 15y ago
I agree with what you're saying. A person's direction in life can change at any time and it's unfortunate that people judge and discriminate so carelessly. They are acting rationally though. Take, for example, your anecdote about your friend's employment difficulty. The employer is just trying to get the best person they can for the job. They can't realistically predict future performance of the person they hire so they just rely on credentialism and base the decision on past performance/qualifications in the hope that a person who performed well in the past will continue to do so.
- singular 15y ago
  Sure, and it's understandable given the number of CVs companies have to filter through, especially the more desirable places - there has to be some way of filtering through. I think it's very important to highlight that these judgements aren't etched in stone, though, it's a point which is lost in that phrase, hence me not being a huge fan of it.
stonemetal 15y ago
As you say it is an indicator not a guaranty, and a really good one when you look at a long enough history. a family crisis during my degree which several impacted my performance I would say that it is a pretty good indicator of how you behave in the future if those circumstances happen again. What is dangerous is not using enough data to make the determination. Your friends A-levels is just one data point, making a judgement on one data point isn't going to make a good choice.
lhnz 15y ago
I agree but I prefer to think that's a lack of agency [1] than proof that past performance doesn't correlate with future performance. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agency_(philosophy) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agency_(philosophy)

djm 15y ago

I agree with what you're saying. A person's direction in life can change at any time and it's unfortunate that people judge and discriminate so carelessly. They are acting rationally though. Take, for example, your anecdote about your friend's employment difficulty. The employer is just trying to get the best person they can for the job. They can't realistically predict future performance of the person they hire so they just rely on credentialism and base the decision on past performance/qualifications in the hope that a person who performed well in the past will continue to do so.

singular 15y ago
Sure, and it's understandable given the number of CVs companies have to filter through, especially the more desirable places - there has to be some way of filtering through. I think it's very important to highlight that these judgements aren't etched in stone, though, it's a point which is lost in that phrase, hence me not being a huge fan of it.

stonemetal 15y ago

As you say it is an indicator not a guaranty, and a really good one when you look at a long enough history. a family crisis during my degree which several impacted my performance I would say that it is a pretty good indicator of how you behave in the future if those circumstances happen again. What is dangerous is not using enough data to make the determination. Your friends A-levels is just one data point, making a judgement on one data point isn't going to make a good choice.

lhnz 15y ago

I agree but I prefer to think that's a lack of agency [1] than proof that past performance doesn't correlate with future performance. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agency_(philosophy) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agency_(philosophy)