3 ms·

78% vaccination, more than half of new are breakthrough, i.e. the vaccinated chances to get infected is more than 28% of that of unvaccinated. Similar numbers

by trhway 5y ago

78% vaccination, more than half of new are breakthrough, i.e. the vaccinated chances to get infected is more than 28% of that of unvaccinated. Similar numbers to MA https://www.bostonherald.com/2021/08/31/massachusetts-reports-1557-coronavirus-cases-hits-milestone-of-more-than-4-5-million-people-fully-vaccinated/ https://www.bostonherald.com/2021/08/31/massachusetts-report... - 65% vaccination rate - out of the 1144 current average new daily infections the 500+ are breakthrough, ie. the chances are 40%. The data is probably skewed by the fact that vaccines smooth the symptoms and thus the breakthroughs are probably much more undercounted.

Retric 5y ago
Vaccination is heavily correlated with age and age is heavily correlated with risk. So, you really need to do a more complex breakdown to understand what’s going on. Aka if 90% of the 80+ year old population is vaccinated and 0% of the under 12 year old population is vaccinated then being unvaccinated starts to look like a good option. Except what you really want is to be young.
- trhway 5y ago
  >Vaccination is heavily correlated with age not really https://eu.boell.org/sites/default/files/2021-06/IL%2004.jpg https://eu.boell.org/sites/default/files/2021-06/IL%2004.jpg Except for teenagers as it was pointed out, though i usually didn't consider them because of being outliers wrt. history of vaccination. Well, lets consider them too. That is new cases by age http://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/25295.jpeg http://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/25295.jpeg Let's look at opposites: 60-69 - 90% vaccination, 8% cases, 0.5M population 10-19 - 25% vaccination, 40% cases, 1.4M population. I.e. almost 3x population, 5x cases with 25% vs 90% vaccination rate. Simple arithmetic - vaccinated chances to get infected are ~35% that of unvaccinated. Whatever way you slice and dice these numbers or the available numbers from other well vaccinated places like MA, UK, Singapore you always get in the 25%-40% ballpark.
  - seoaeu 5y ago
    Um, your graph shows that younger people are several times more likely to be unvaccinated than older people
  - Retric 5y ago
    I think you misunderstood what I meant. As your first graph shows the elderly are more likely to be vaccinated than the young thus age correlates with vaccination rates. However, youth is protection from serious complications or deaths. So if you look hospitalizations or deaths rather than positive tests for infections the graphs look very different. The Simpson’s paradox means your less likely to die after a COVID vaccination, but it’s easy to slice the data to make it look otherwise. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox
    - trhway 5y ago
      i don't discuss the number of hospitalizations or deaths - that is currently established fact that the current vaccines decrease that (at least as the 1st order effect and leaving aside the possible 2nd order that infected vaccinated being undercounted and asymptomatic with higher chances may be walking around spreading) and there is not much point to discuss there. I discuss infection spread at which those vaccines fail, and thus various vaccine mandates policies and societal push for it are completely unfounded and based in hysteria and ideology.
      - deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
      - Retric 5y ago
        Ok, that’s a different issue. We have crossed the threshold where most people are getting sick or vaccinated, with many getting both. People can test positive for infection without being particularly infectious. Just as the vaccinated are less likely to be hospitalized they are also vastly less contagious on average after infection. That’s from two different effects the vaccinated and prior infected are both less sick and sick for a shorter periods. Which is why people talk about herd immunity. Of course the longer people go unvaccinated the more evolution is pushing COVID to become ever more infectious aka Delta as part of a long line of slightly worse variants. But, again eventually almost everyone gets it or the vaccine so there is major pressure to get people vaccinated or just open up so the unvaccinated get sick.
- angelzen 5y ago
  Tidbit: UK, being 0-17 and unvaccinated bears a smaller risk of covid related death than being >40 and vaccinated. https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1420401034376224775 https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1420401034376224775

by trhway 5y ago

Retric 5y ago

Vaccination is heavily correlated with age and age is heavily correlated with risk. So, you really need to do a more complex breakdown to understand what’s going on. Aka if 90% of the 80+ year old population is vaccinated and 0% of the under 12 year old population is vaccinated then being unvaccinated starts to look like a good option. Except what you really want is to be young.

trhway 5y ago
>Vaccination is heavily correlated with age not really https://eu.boell.org/sites/default/files/2021-06/IL%2004.jpg https://eu.boell.org/sites/default/files/2021-06/IL%2004.jpg Except for teenagers as it was pointed out, though i usually didn't consider them because of being outliers wrt. history of vaccination. Well, lets consider them too. That is new cases by age http://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/25295.jpeg http://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/25295.jpeg Let's look at opposites: 60-69 - 90% vaccination, 8% cases, 0.5M population 10-19 - 25% vaccination, 40% cases, 1.4M population. I.e. almost 3x population, 5x cases with 25% vs 90% vaccination rate. Simple arithmetic - vaccinated chances to get infected are ~35% that of unvaccinated. Whatever way you slice and dice these numbers or the available numbers from other well vaccinated places like MA, UK, Singapore you always get in the 25%-40% ballpark.
- seoaeu 5y ago
  Um, your graph shows that younger people are several times more likely to be unvaccinated than older people
- Retric 5y ago
  I think you misunderstood what I meant. As your first graph shows the elderly are more likely to be vaccinated than the young thus age correlates with vaccination rates. However, youth is protection from serious complications or deaths. So if you look hospitalizations or deaths rather than positive tests for infections the graphs look very different. The Simpson’s paradox means your less likely to die after a COVID vaccination, but it’s easy to slice the data to make it look otherwise. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox
  - trhway 5y ago
    i don't discuss the number of hospitalizations or deaths - that is currently established fact that the current vaccines decrease that (at least as the 1st order effect and leaving aside the possible 2nd order that infected vaccinated being undercounted and asymptomatic with higher chances may be walking around spreading) and there is not much point to discuss there. I discuss infection spread at which those vaccines fail, and thus various vaccine mandates policies and societal push for it are completely unfounded and based in hysteria and ideology.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
    - Retric 5y ago
      Ok, that’s a different issue. We have crossed the threshold where most people are getting sick or vaccinated, with many getting both. People can test positive for infection without being particularly infectious. Just as the vaccinated are less likely to be hospitalized they are also vastly less contagious on average after infection. That’s from two different effects the vaccinated and prior infected are both less sick and sick for a shorter periods. Which is why people talk about herd immunity. Of course the longer people go unvaccinated the more evolution is pushing COVID to become ever more infectious aka Delta as part of a long line of slightly worse variants. But, again eventually almost everyone gets it or the vaccine so there is major pressure to get people vaccinated or just open up so the unvaccinated get sick.
angelzen 5y ago
Tidbit: UK, being 0-17 and unvaccinated bears a smaller risk of covid related death than being >40 and vaccinated. https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1420401034376224775 https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1420401034376224775