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I agree. I think the implied conclusion that “none of the AI know what they’re doing!” is disingenuous. This is like the comparisons of 200 top hedge funds to

by acchow 5y ago

I agree. I think the implied conclusion that “none of the AI know what they’re doing!” is disingenuous. This is like the comparisons of 200 top hedge funds to index performance and concluding that hedge funds can’t beat the market. Ignoring the other conclusion: most hedge funds suck Edit: or most hedge funds are fraudulent?

eklbt 5y ago
This hedge fund example is not great because the hedge funds that beat the market(and overcome the added management fees) can't do so consistently.
- qweqwweqwe-90i 5y ago
  But many do... e.g. rentec
  - sidlls 5y ago
    Statistically it stretches credulity to the breaking point for an outlier be an outlier year after year, whether it's in this or any other area.
- spywaregorilla 5y ago
  "Hedge funds" generally aren't supposed to beat the market. They're supposed to do different to the market. That might be, for example, generally a bit worse but hugely better if the market suffers a catastrophic loss for a simple example.
aeturnum 5y ago
> This is like the comparisons of 200 top hedge funds to index performance and concluding that hedge funds can’t beat the market. I think you've misread what conclusion you're supposed to draw from this kind of assessment. For both the hedge funds and this the conclusion isn't that the job is impossible - but that we lack the tools to predict who will do the job. You can't know which hedge fund will outperform (though some will) and we don't seem to be able to predict which AI models will perform well enough to use. Also that your odds of picking a winner "from the field" are quite bad. It doesn't mean there's anything wrong with using a hedge fund - but there's a level of risk that one shouldn't ignore. Like, my conclusion from this is that I would not accept a pure AI solution (because most of them are bad), but I would be interested in AI assistance. For many people, the promise is in replacing not supplementing doctors and this is the same as failure.
- cratermoon 5y ago
  > the conclusion isn't that the job is impossible Oh no, that could be the conclusion. Ever study quantum physics? Lots of people have tried to come up with some kind of model with inner "hidden" variables that tries to make HEP physics into a completely deterministic, almost classical, theory. By your logic, if we just trained and AI with enough subatomic interactions, it would eventually be able to predict with 100% accuracy the results of a quantum process. That's utter bunk. Markets are the same way: people think there must be some rules that can be worked out to make them 100% predictable, when in reality there is an element randomness that makes cryptographers jealous. It will never be possible to predict the next number in a random process. If you flip a coin 99 times and get 99 heads, you still can't predict what the 100th toss will be (and before someone "well ackshually"s with something about an unfair coin: don't)
  - aeturnum 5y ago
    > Oh no, that could be the conclusion. I mean, the job certainly could be impossible, but those studies don't prove it. As it relates to the discussion at hand we know that we can do better at evaluating mammography because humans do it. Maybe I am not understanding what you are saying?
tyingq 5y ago
"all AI systems were less accurate than consensus of two radiologists" So 2 of the 36 were better than one radiologist, none were better than two radiologists collaborating.
rmah 5y ago
Those "hedge funds can't beat index funds or the market" are marketing/PR messaging for index ETFs. Many, if not most, hedge funds are not trying to "beat the market". For some hedge funds, if they did beat the market, then they would be sued by investors for taking far too much risk. Investing has more goals than "make me the most money possible" but most naive investors don't understand this. That said, retail investors don't invest with hedge funds anyway, so most hedge funds don't really care about such misleading messaging.

by acchow 5y ago

eklbt 5y ago

This hedge fund example is not great because the hedge funds that beat the market(and overcome the added management fees) can't do so consistently.

qweqwweqwe-90i 5y ago
But many do... e.g. rentec
- sidlls 5y ago
  Statistically it stretches credulity to the breaking point for an outlier be an outlier year after year, whether it's in this or any other area.
spywaregorilla 5y ago
"Hedge funds" generally aren't supposed to beat the market. They're supposed to do different to the market. That might be, for example, generally a bit worse but hugely better if the market suffers a catastrophic loss for a simple example.

aeturnum 5y ago

> This is like the comparisons of 200 top hedge funds to index performance and concluding that hedge funds can’t beat the market. I think you've misread what conclusion you're supposed to draw from this kind of assessment. For both the hedge funds and this the conclusion isn't that the job is impossible - but that we lack the tools to predict who will do the job. You can't know which hedge fund will outperform (though some will) and we don't seem to be able to predict which AI models will perform well enough to use. Also that your odds of picking a winner "from the field" are quite bad. It doesn't mean there's anything wrong with using a hedge fund - but there's a level of risk that one shouldn't ignore. Like, my conclusion from this is that I would not accept a pure AI solution (because most of them are bad), but I would be interested in AI assistance. For many people, the promise is in replacing not supplementing doctors and this is the same as failure.

cratermoon 5y ago
> the conclusion isn't that the job is impossible Oh no, that could be the conclusion. Ever study quantum physics? Lots of people have tried to come up with some kind of model with inner "hidden" variables that tries to make HEP physics into a completely deterministic, almost classical, theory. By your logic, if we just trained and AI with enough subatomic interactions, it would eventually be able to predict with 100% accuracy the results of a quantum process. That's utter bunk. Markets are the same way: people think there must be some rules that can be worked out to make them 100% predictable, when in reality there is an element randomness that makes cryptographers jealous. It will never be possible to predict the next number in a random process. If you flip a coin 99 times and get 99 heads, you still can't predict what the 100th toss will be (and before someone "well ackshually"s with something about an unfair coin: don't)
- aeturnum 5y ago
  > Oh no, that could be the conclusion. I mean, the job certainly could be impossible, but those studies don't prove it. As it relates to the discussion at hand we know that we can do better at evaluating mammography because humans do it. Maybe I am not understanding what you are saying?

tyingq 5y ago

"all AI systems were less accurate than consensus of two radiologists" So 2 of the 36 were better than one radiologist, none were better than two radiologists collaborating.

rmah 5y ago

Those "hedge funds can't beat index funds or the market" are marketing/PR messaging for index ETFs. Many, if not most, hedge funds are not trying to "beat the market". For some hedge funds, if they did beat the market, then they would be sued by investors for taking far too much risk. Investing has more goals than "make me the most money possible" but most naive investors don't understand this. That said, retail investors don't invest with hedge funds anyway, so most hedge funds don't really care about such misleading messaging.