6 ms·

A Founder’s Exponential Toolset: Wright’s Law, Moore’s Law, & More

49 points by domrdy 5y ago

streetcat1 5y ago
Would be interesting to watch what would happen once the fed stops the 0% interest rate.
- JohnJamesRambo 5y ago
  Benjamin Graham's weighing machine phase begins. I don't think it will be pretty.
- qzw 5y ago
  Which U.S. political party will allow that to happen during their administration?
  - streetcat1 5y ago
    None, it would be the market. You overestimate the power of the involved entities.
- azeemazhar3 5y ago
  Good experiment! Of course, these are technology trends rather than national trends so may, in some sense and in a qualified way, ignore borders.
candyman 5y ago
It's all a very appealing sort of "alternate reality." I don't mean that in a bad way. If "virtual" will become a bigger and bigger share of our economy and personal rewards system than I guess it makes sense to think about investing this way. Of course as physical beings we still need to pay for food, housing, healthcare, travel, computers, etc. Investing in crypto and crypto-related projects that may act as viable platforms for some of these things does seem like a good idea.
mikewarot 5y ago
>As we know, with exponential curves, they start slow and they get very fast at some point. But when is that point? The question is, where does that kink in the curve happen? There is no kink in an exponential curve, if you think there is, obviously you don't understand exponentials. In the real world, there are S curves, when the finite limits interact and overpower the exponential... those are the ones that determine who makes large amounts of money, and who doesn't. You need to time your ride along the curve such that your organization is firmly on top at that time, the use the resources gained to maintain a monopoly, and thus real profit. (The one thing Econ 101 firmly implanted in my brain is that the only way to make sustainable profits in a free market is to build and defend a monopoly, otherwise you're always struggling to keep up with competitors) Otherwise the only other thing I learned is that there is an organization of venture capitalists called NfX who have some strange ideas to peddle, and sounds like a cult.
- Retric 5y ago
  It’s possible to make extreme amounts of money without owning the market as long as it’s big enough or your in enough of them. Even the 6th largest oil company Exxon Mobil is worth 235 Billion which is far more than most unicorns ever reach. The difference is simply ROI. Keeping up with a growing market is much easier than trying to grow at the expense of competitors in a giant stagnant market.
  - azeemazhar3 5y ago
    There are other dynamics - which I talk about in the book - about how the nature of value creation changes during this period. It is a shift that has been on going for decades and it relates, yes not only to novel growing markets, but also the ways in which firms create and capture value.
- CalChris 5y ago
  Yes, exponentials are infinitely differentiable. We took Calculus 101. The author's point about kink is about opportunity. When does a technology cross a performance boundary and then the Principle of Competitive Exclusion comes into effect. That point is kinda kinky, maybe not in performance but in demand.
klelatti 5y ago
Personal view: the idea and importance of 'The Exponential age' is being oversold here. Sure Moore's Law has - with some adjustments - applied for a long time, but lots of things that are really important don't follow this pattern. Is the author really saying electricity isn't as important as Moore's Law because it wasn't 'exponential'? The key issue is at what point does the technology progress to a point where important things that previously weren't viable suddenly become so. The way in which the technology progresses to that point is key, but being exponential or not is not really relevant.
- azeemazhar3 5y ago
  It is a great point and one which I expound in some detail in the first two chapters of the book. Things don't have to be 'exponential' to be important. Printing press, wheel being two other good examples. Square-rigged sails as well! However, a number of aspects of our economies are not sufficiently configured to enable a kind of phase change in interactions between entities in our economies. And one of those is enabling the rapid development of a whole suite of technologies (outside traditional tech), and those technologies good well be candidates for general purpose technologies, which in turn maginifies the impacts they might have.
  - klelatti 5y ago
    Look forward to reading the book - sounds like it will be a very interesting read (although publishing on the same day as Adam Tooze's Shutdown presents a dilemma!) Completely applaud any effort to step back and examine these effects. We do need better ways of thinking about how technology interacts with economics and, I think now especially, geopolitics given current challenges.

49 points by domrdy 5y ago

streetcat1 5y ago

Would be interesting to watch what would happen once the fed stops the 0% interest rate.

JohnJamesRambo 5y ago
Benjamin Graham's weighing machine phase begins. I don't think it will be pretty.
qzw 5y ago
Which U.S. political party will allow that to happen during their administration?
- streetcat1 5y ago
  None, it would be the market. You overestimate the power of the involved entities.
azeemazhar3 5y ago
Good experiment! Of course, these are technology trends rather than national trends so may, in some sense and in a qualified way, ignore borders.

candyman 5y ago

It's all a very appealing sort of "alternate reality." I don't mean that in a bad way. If "virtual" will become a bigger and bigger share of our economy and personal rewards system than I guess it makes sense to think about investing this way. Of course as physical beings we still need to pay for food, housing, healthcare, travel, computers, etc. Investing in crypto and crypto-related projects that may act as viable platforms for some of these things does seem like a good idea.

mikewarot 5y ago

>As we know, with exponential curves, they start slow and they get very fast at some point. But when is that point? The question is, where does that kink in the curve happen? There is no kink in an exponential curve, if you think there is, obviously you don't understand exponentials. In the real world, there are S curves, when the finite limits interact and overpower the exponential... those are the ones that determine who makes large amounts of money, and who doesn't. You need to time your ride along the curve such that your organization is firmly on top at that time, the use the resources gained to maintain a monopoly, and thus real profit. (The one thing Econ 101 firmly implanted in my brain is that the only way to make sustainable profits in a free market is to build and defend a monopoly, otherwise you're always struggling to keep up with competitors) Otherwise the only other thing I learned is that there is an organization of venture capitalists called NfX who have some strange ideas to peddle, and sounds like a cult.

Retric 5y ago
It’s possible to make extreme amounts of money without owning the market as long as it’s big enough or your in enough of them. Even the 6th largest oil company Exxon Mobil is worth 235 Billion which is far more than most unicorns ever reach. The difference is simply ROI. Keeping up with a growing market is much easier than trying to grow at the expense of competitors in a giant stagnant market.
- azeemazhar3 5y ago
  There are other dynamics - which I talk about in the book - about how the nature of value creation changes during this period. It is a shift that has been on going for decades and it relates, yes not only to novel growing markets, but also the ways in which firms create and capture value.
CalChris 5y ago
Yes, exponentials are infinitely differentiable. We took Calculus 101. The author's point about kink is about opportunity. When does a technology cross a performance boundary and then the Principle of Competitive Exclusion comes into effect. That point is kinda kinky, maybe not in performance but in demand.

klelatti 5y ago

Personal view: the idea and importance of 'The Exponential age' is being oversold here. Sure Moore's Law has - with some adjustments - applied for a long time, but lots of things that are really important don't follow this pattern. Is the author really saying electricity isn't as important as Moore's Law because it wasn't 'exponential'? The key issue is at what point does the technology progress to a point where important things that previously weren't viable suddenly become so. The way in which the technology progresses to that point is key, but being exponential or not is not really relevant.

azeemazhar3 5y ago
It is a great point and one which I expound in some detail in the first two chapters of the book. Things don't have to be 'exponential' to be important. Printing press, wheel being two other good examples. Square-rigged sails as well! However, a number of aspects of our economies are not sufficiently configured to enable a kind of phase change in interactions between entities in our economies. And one of those is enabling the rapid development of a whole suite of technologies (outside traditional tech), and those technologies good well be candidates for general purpose technologies, which in turn maginifies the impacts they might have.
- klelatti 5y ago
  Look forward to reading the book - sounds like it will be a very interesting read (although publishing on the same day as Adam Tooze's Shutdown presents a dilemma!) Completely applaud any effort to step back and examine these effects. We do need better ways of thinking about how technology interacts with economics and, I think now especially, geopolitics given current challenges.