4 ms·
Luck can simultaneously play a huge role and be relatively unimportant. On any given product, you can do most things wrong and maybe 1% of the time you'll get
by jonas21 5y ago
Luck can simultaneously play a huge role and be relatively unimportant.
On any given product, you can do most things wrong and maybe 1% of the time you'll get lucky and succeed -- or you can do most things right and succeed maybe 30% of the time (I'm just making these numbers up, but they seem in the right ballpark based on my experience).
In a single instance, you're more likely than not to fail regardless of what you do, and both groups could chalk that up to "bad luck". But among the ones that have succeeded, you'll find that there are 30x more in the latter group than the former.
- majormajor 5y agoUsing your same numbers: if you're one of the ones that succeeded, it's important to remember that 70% of your success was still chance. If you compare yourself to someone else who isn't succeeding, they could still very well just be a victim of that more-than-two-thirds-chance they're going to fail. So if you just tell them "here's what I did differently, that's why you're failing" you're doing them a disservice. I think that makes it relatively important, since the world is full of successful people who want to tell other people that one little secret that'll turn their life around.
- pc86 5y agoI don't think your math is right.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]