3 ms·
> rare outcomes become much more likely. Citations needed. Alternatively if vaccine reactions depend on something like immunotype of the individual that isn't
by lamontcg 5y ago
> rare outcomes become much more likely.
Citations needed.
Alternatively if vaccine reactions depend on something like immunotype of the individual that isn't going to change, and if you tolerate the vaccine today you're likely to tolerate it for the next 50 years.
Also if we apply the concept of Original Antigenic Sin, then once you've formed a healthy humoral reaction to a given antigen you're likely to continue to have healthy reactions to similar antigens in the future (and vice versa, if you form a poor immune reaction you my have poor reactions in the future).
- whatshisface 5y ago>Citations needed. Well, like you point out it depends on how many of the rare effects are determined by variation from person to person, and how many are determined by variation from time to time. If it's all person-to-person then your chance of a rare effect drops to zero once you have a single dose, but if it's time-to-time, your chances of making it through without something weird happening drop as (P_safe)^n, i.e., exponentially. Without any studies I know of that would tell us which was happening, we could assign a neutral prior of 50% to both cases. That leads to: P(safe) = 1/2(1-0) + 1/2 (P_safe)^n. Obviously this is an oversimplification, but it still leads to an exponential decay, just not to 0.