4 ms·

[edit] this is in response to the earlier version of your post where you wonder if the virus will ever go away: That I think is a given. Even if we had a bulle

by cm2187 5y ago

[edit] this is in response to the earlier version of your post where you wonder if the virus will ever go away: That I think is a given. Even if we had a bullet proof vaccine, you have such a large reserve of unvaccinated people across the world, plus animals, that the virus is endemic at this stage. Which isn't a problem. If once vaccinated the virus is mostly harmless, then it is just one more of the many endemic diseases we live with without worrying about.

prox 5y ago
We might also see the first batch of medicines appear in 2022, if we can successfully prevent ICU visits with effective medicines for starters, that would mean a lot to healthcare professionals worldwide.
- Griffinsauce 5y ago
  Is there any actual development here? It's definitely not a given that we can do this.
  - Spellman 5y ago
    There actually is! Two studies in Brazil have shown a pretty significant reduction in hospitalizations in a RCT of fluvoxamine. More data obviously required. Plus there has been more work on other treatments, but most are pretty expensive. https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22619137/fluvoxamine-covid-ivermectin-together-study-mcmaster https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22619137/fluvoxamine-covi...
  - prox 5y ago
    While obviously complicated, Pfizer is working on a promising medication and I know of a dutch trial using antibodies that’s starting a next phase.
JackFr 5y ago
I am not a virologist, but based on my reading, in 100 years COVID will still be with us. At worst it will be the flu, and at best it will be just another strain of a cold. COVID has the very helpful quality of being least impactful on the very young. As new children are born they will be exposed to COVID multiple times over their lives, to the point when they are at ages we now consider vulnerable, they likely will have developed as much resistance as one can have.
loceng 5y ago
Which is why top virologists around the world have been trying to sound the alarm to warn that you don't vaccinate during a pandemic because it drives escape mutant variants; this type of response gets downvoted into oblivion by an ideological mob who are fear driven more than critical thinking, who have memorized the mainstream narrative responses to such statements by experts - or attempting character assassination of experts not toeing the line; https://twitter.com/lefarfadet8/status/1427754200398766087 https://twitter.com/lefarfadet8/status/1427754200398766087 Edit to add: Look at the critical conversation people are having instead of downvoting me into oblivion! HN's full of so many ideologues it's crazy.
- cm2187 5y ago
  Not that I am qualified for such a debate, but it's not clear to me that the risk of creating variants is greater than the risk of letting the virus run through the population unopposed. The variants so far seem to be variations of the same virus with similar risk profiles, and the vaccines seem to be mostly efficient against these variants.
  - loceng 5y ago
    For each variant we've given an alphabet to, like Delta, there are variants occurring from those - they seem to only give them a letter once it's a large enough step in mutation; I'm not sure of the actual labeling practices used. But yes, I'm not qualified for the pinnacle of such a debate either, but those discussions aren't even happening - at least not in public which they need to be. There are mutations that are occurring however just in vaccinated, that aren't occurring in the non-vaccinated, the virus mutating to escape the immunity of the vaccinations - which then makes those variants easier to spread to other vaccinated [and potentially easier to spread to unvaccinated as well]; UCSF recently released study of 1,300+ patients with COVID,78% had specific variants associated with vaccinated vs. 48% of unvaccinated having those same variants - various conclusions of possibilities could be made from that.
    - pionar 5y ago
      (Replying here since your original post is dead) It's not that nobody's talking about it, it's just that people have done the research, and they've proven people like Dr. Montagnier wrong. Why give air to people who keep saying things that are wrong? https://twitter.com/GKangInd/status/1397429770028158978 https://twitter.com/GKangInd/status/1397429770028158978
bsaul 5y ago
"If once vaccinated the virus is mostly harmless" Note that even not vaccinated, the ultra large majority of people either are asymptomatic or don't get anything worst than a flu (which doesn't mean covid = flu in general) We seem to have forgotten that the original concern with the virus was the fact that it saturated intensive care units in hospitals, and thus prevented people from getting proper care.
- 8ytecoder 5y ago
  Which, unfortunately, is still relevant - as seen in Louisiana and Florida. A frank and honest admission by one of the physicians on Reddit was that most people who stay in ventilator for weeks have no path to recovery but families don’t let them go. Essentially COVID patients hold up the beds for a long time as well.
- graeme 5y ago
  That’s the original acute concern. Long run we still don’t know if it will have effects on brain function etc. There are some disturbing lines of evidence on this front. For example the UK biobank showing grey matter loss post infection including in mild cases: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.11.21258690v1.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.11.21258690v...
  - bsaul 5y ago
    i remember this study, but i'm surprised we don't have more papers on the same topic since. It seemed like a pretty big news, and yet i don't hear people recommending mass-vaccination mention it. Any idea why ?
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
    - mafuy 5y ago
      I recommend mass vax and this point is one of the main points I use. But I agree with you that sadly, this danger is not well known.
p_j_w 5y ago
>Which isn't a problem. If once vaccinated the virus is mostly harmless, then it is just one more of the many endemic diseases we live with without worrying about. It's a problem if you're one of the many people who, for whatever reason, can't be safely vaccinated.

by cm2187 5y ago

prox 5y ago

We might also see the first batch of medicines appear in 2022, if we can successfully prevent ICU visits with effective medicines for starters, that would mean a lot to healthcare professionals worldwide.

Griffinsauce 5y ago
Is there any actual development here? It's definitely not a given that we can do this.
- Spellman 5y ago
  There actually is! Two studies in Brazil have shown a pretty significant reduction in hospitalizations in a RCT of fluvoxamine. More data obviously required. Plus there has been more work on other treatments, but most are pretty expensive. https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22619137/fluvoxamine-covid-ivermectin-together-study-mcmaster https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22619137/fluvoxamine-covi...
- prox 5y ago
  While obviously complicated, Pfizer is working on a promising medication and I know of a dutch trial using antibodies that’s starting a next phase.

JackFr 5y ago

I am not a virologist, but based on my reading, in 100 years COVID will still be with us. At worst it will be the flu, and at best it will be just another strain of a cold. COVID has the very helpful quality of being least impactful on the very young. As new children are born they will be exposed to COVID multiple times over their lives, to the point when they are at ages we now consider vulnerable, they likely will have developed as much resistance as one can have.

loceng 5y ago

Which is why top virologists around the world have been trying to sound the alarm to warn that you don't vaccinate during a pandemic because it drives escape mutant variants; this type of response gets downvoted into oblivion by an ideological mob who are fear driven more than critical thinking, who have memorized the mainstream narrative responses to such statements by experts - or attempting character assassination of experts not toeing the line; https://twitter.com/lefarfadet8/status/1427754200398766087 https://twitter.com/lefarfadet8/status/1427754200398766087 Edit to add: Look at the critical conversation people are having instead of downvoting me into oblivion! HN's full of so many ideologues it's crazy.

cm2187 5y ago
Not that I am qualified for such a debate, but it's not clear to me that the risk of creating variants is greater than the risk of letting the virus run through the population unopposed. The variants so far seem to be variations of the same virus with similar risk profiles, and the vaccines seem to be mostly efficient against these variants.
- loceng 5y ago
  For each variant we've given an alphabet to, like Delta, there are variants occurring from those - they seem to only give them a letter once it's a large enough step in mutation; I'm not sure of the actual labeling practices used. But yes, I'm not qualified for the pinnacle of such a debate either, but those discussions aren't even happening - at least not in public which they need to be. There are mutations that are occurring however just in vaccinated, that aren't occurring in the non-vaccinated, the virus mutating to escape the immunity of the vaccinations - which then makes those variants easier to spread to other vaccinated [and potentially easier to spread to unvaccinated as well]; UCSF recently released study of 1,300+ patients with COVID,78% had specific variants associated with vaccinated vs. 48% of unvaccinated having those same variants - various conclusions of possibilities could be made from that.
  - pionar 5y ago
    (Replying here since your original post is dead) It's not that nobody's talking about it, it's just that people have done the research, and they've proven people like Dr. Montagnier wrong. Why give air to people who keep saying things that are wrong? https://twitter.com/GKangInd/status/1397429770028158978 https://twitter.com/GKangInd/status/1397429770028158978

bsaul 5y ago

"If once vaccinated the virus is mostly harmless" Note that even not vaccinated, the ultra large majority of people either are asymptomatic or don't get anything worst than a flu (which doesn't mean covid = flu in general) We seem to have forgotten that the original concern with the virus was the fact that it saturated intensive care units in hospitals, and thus prevented people from getting proper care.

8ytecoder 5y ago
Which, unfortunately, is still relevant - as seen in Louisiana and Florida. A frank and honest admission by one of the physicians on Reddit was that most people who stay in ventilator for weeks have no path to recovery but families don’t let them go. Essentially COVID patients hold up the beds for a long time as well.
graeme 5y ago
That’s the original acute concern. Long run we still don’t know if it will have effects on brain function etc. There are some disturbing lines of evidence on this front. For example the UK biobank showing grey matter loss post infection including in mild cases: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.11.21258690v1.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.11.21258690v...
- bsaul 5y ago
  i remember this study, but i'm surprised we don't have more papers on the same topic since. It seemed like a pretty big news, and yet i don't hear people recommending mass-vaccination mention it. Any idea why ?
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - mafuy 5y ago
    I recommend mass vax and this point is one of the main points I use. But I agree with you that sadly, this danger is not well known.

p_j_w 5y ago

>Which isn't a problem. If once vaccinated the virus is mostly harmless, then it is just one more of the many endemic diseases we live with without worrying about. It's a problem if you're one of the many people who, for whatever reason, can't be safely vaccinated.