4 ms·

What reason do we have to believe that there will be a point in the future with less COVID risk than there is today? By what mechanism will that arise?

mym1990 5y ago
Vaccination numbers still have a lot of room to grow, the virus may mutate into something that has a lower kill rate, the vaccine efficacy will likely improve, etc...
- ghaff 5y ago
  Well, and at some point, even relatively cautious rational people go: "I'm not permanently curtailing my activities." I live in a deep blue state and, while you see masks, life has returned to normal in a lot of respects.
- chipotle_coyote 5y ago
  My (limited!) understanding is that mutations that make pathogens more contagious but less fatal are evolutionarily advantageous, so to the degree we can talk about Covid-19 having “self-interest,” becoming ever closer to Bad Case of Flu is within it.
  - roflc0ptic 5y ago
    In the long term this evolutionary pressure is present, however, it's not an iron law - as I understand, in addition to becoming more transmissible, COVID variants have become a bit more fatal over time.
    - mym1990 5y ago
      I've seen this as well. I feel like maybe worst case scenario is a virus that is silent, contagious, and eventually deadly, and can stick around long enough to infect others.
roflc0ptic 5y ago
Mass vaccination and exposure. The hope is that our immune systems will collectively get used to it, and its evolution will be constrained enough that, while it will continue to mutate, our immune systems will continue to have a "good enough" answer to it that we avoid the cytokine storm problem that's killing people.
- closeparen 5y ago
  At the rate things are going it would take decades to get everyone exposed, but much less time than that to lose natural immunity. The only Americans who might be vaccinated in the future but aren’t vaccinated today are children under 12. The FDA is in no hurry on this because it doesn’t make much difference anyway (minimal vaccine risks loom larger next to minimal COVID risk).
  - roflc0ptic 5y ago
    I think this is a slightly-too-bleak-for-the-evidence take, because it's not clear how long immune defense persists. COVID antibodies tend to go away kind of quickly, but there are (so I hear) other mechanisms of defense which may persist longer. Things could of course be much worse - it's possible that the COVID molecule is somehow unusually well situated for immune escape and length of immunity won't matter that much; those of us in countries that can afford it will get our semi-annual microchip infusion with the latest flavors.

mym1990 5y ago

Vaccination numbers still have a lot of room to grow, the virus may mutate into something that has a lower kill rate, the vaccine efficacy will likely improve, etc...

ghaff 5y ago
Well, and at some point, even relatively cautious rational people go: "I'm not permanently curtailing my activities." I live in a deep blue state and, while you see masks, life has returned to normal in a lot of respects.
chipotle_coyote 5y ago
My (limited!) understanding is that mutations that make pathogens more contagious but less fatal are evolutionarily advantageous, so to the degree we can talk about Covid-19 having “self-interest,” becoming ever closer to Bad Case of Flu is within it.
- roflc0ptic 5y ago
  In the long term this evolutionary pressure is present, however, it's not an iron law - as I understand, in addition to becoming more transmissible, COVID variants have become a bit more fatal over time.
  - mym1990 5y ago
    I've seen this as well. I feel like maybe worst case scenario is a virus that is silent, contagious, and eventually deadly, and can stick around long enough to infect others.

roflc0ptic 5y ago

Mass vaccination and exposure. The hope is that our immune systems will collectively get used to it, and its evolution will be constrained enough that, while it will continue to mutate, our immune systems will continue to have a "good enough" answer to it that we avoid the cytokine storm problem that's killing people.

closeparen 5y ago
At the rate things are going it would take decades to get everyone exposed, but much less time than that to lose natural immunity. The only Americans who might be vaccinated in the future but aren’t vaccinated today are children under 12. The FDA is in no hurry on this because it doesn’t make much difference anyway (minimal vaccine risks loom larger next to minimal COVID risk).
- roflc0ptic 5y ago
  I think this is a slightly-too-bleak-for-the-evidence take, because it's not clear how long immune defense persists. COVID antibodies tend to go away kind of quickly, but there are (so I hear) other mechanisms of defense which may persist longer. Things could of course be much worse - it's possible that the COVID molecule is somehow unusually well situated for immune escape and length of immunity won't matter that much; those of us in countries that can afford it will get our semi-annual microchip infusion with the latest flavors.