6 ms·

This makes complete sense – just another example of power law dynamics of the internet. Short-term, we're going to see companies pursue a remote model in order

This makes complete sense – just another example of power law dynamics of the internet. Short-term, we're going to see companies pursue a remote model in order to attract talent. This will be great for employees; live in Colorado, go on hikes and have a great lifestyle while commanding a SF salary! Longer-term, companies are going to realize that (except for the top ~10% of performers, who will always command a high salary) having remote workers in the US is functionally equivalent to having remote workers in Mexico or Argentina. US workers are in for a rude awakening when they realize they're competing in a labor market with a more driven, lower cost-of-living population in the rest of the world. Shameless plug – I wrote a blog post about all of this back in December: https://paranoidenough.com/2020/12/07/Labor-Market-Arbitrage.html https://paranoidenough.com/2020/12/07/Labor-Market-Arbitrage...

Sevii 5y ago
The focus on programmers as the vanguard of the remote work trend distracts from what could be the real change the outsourcing of white collar work. Why do we need our lawyers, accountants, human resources and other back office employees to be American when Chilean workers will do those jobs for half or a quarter the pay? What outsourcing did to manufacturing jobs, remote work may do to white collar jobs.
- joelbluminator 5y ago
  Law and accountancy is much harder to outsource than programming. You usually have to be U.S certified so thats pretty much protected.
  - ThalesX 5y ago
    You have the Ubers and AirBnBs circumventing laws around the world and you think it's hard to optimize for a remote law and accountancy practice? Just have offshore remoters do the bulk of work and have it signed by a certified local lawyer / accountant.
    - joelbluminator 5y ago
      It's not impossible I guess, you will need to find people who know U.S law well. If you're talking about accountancy that's pretty complex stuff. You can outsource the grunt work easily (going over Excel sheets, that has been ousourced for decades already) but the substantial work no, I don't think it's that easy.
      - ThalesX 5y ago
        I don't think it's easy either. There are smart people everywhere in the world. If these people could be easily paid and could get their results validated by a local expert, there would be a lot of financial incentive for these smart people to learn the US law, for example, and create case files for the local experts to evaluate and sign on. Would it cut the need for the local experts? No. Would it reduce their numbers? Maybe, it could also diversify them. Would it lower the cost for the service? I also think so.
        PaulDavisThe1st 5y ago
        Would it result in the "superstar" local experts (to use TFA's terminology) making huge amounts of money? Almost certainly.
        joelbluminator 5y ago
        I think the big disruption will be automation especially for accountancy, so much of it is grunt work.
    - lthornberry 5y ago
      Certified lawyers/accountants have ethical compliance responsibilities. They should be doing meaningful review, not just "signing off." There are savings to be realized, but they are more limited than one might think. The difference here is that there are professional associations with both the ability to discipline people who don't follow the rules, and a deep interest in doing so.
      - 5y ago
  - justaguy88 5y ago
    You could set up a US Law school in another country
    - PaulDavisThe1st 5y ago
      The school is less of a problem than the state-by-state bar exam, I believe.
      - sangnoir 5y ago
        You don't need to pass the bar to be a paralegal & do the grunt work while the firm is billing US rates. Bigger law and accounting firms already utilize this model, whereby entry level employees do the bulk of the raw work, and the audit report/advisory/legal filing gets pushed up the hierarchy while being simultaneously refined and improved, sometimes sent back down the chain. Many revisions later, the final version is signed off, by someone who has passed the state bar, and possibly has their name on the building - if the client is a big deal.
    - ghaff 5y ago
      There's no shortage of lawyers and law school grads from 2nd and 3rd tier schools aren't actually all that well paid on average. The big NY white shoe firm salaries? They mostly come from a relatively small number of schools, students who did well, often had good internships or clerkships, maybe were on law review, maybe have connections, etc.
  - mateo411 5y ago
    For lawyers they can only practice law in the states in which they have passed the bar in. So, it's even more restricted. If you want to practice in another state, then I think you need to take the bar for that state. It's a 3 day test. You also have to take the CPA exam to become a CPA, but that looks like you can transfer your accreditation to another state.
joelbluminator 5y ago
There are real drawbacks to remote only in terms of culture and employee committment. Those who can afford it will probably keep being hybrid I think. Those who want to cut costs will outsource. But since software companies are swimming in money I am not sure its a huge priority.
justaguy88 5y ago
Time zone 'compatibility' is extremely important Happily hire north/south, but too many hours east/west and people have to give up off-time just to have regular meetings
- bluekite2000 5y ago
  East/West can work well as well. I have a team in Vietnam with USA clients and we just do 1h overlap per day. Too many meetings may not be a good thing.
- mariojv 5y ago
  I think it really depends on the type of work and people involved whether east/west can work well. We're working with some contractors with a 9 hour time difference between headquarters and their office, but having really efficient weekly check-ins against concrete, written goals, good async communication, and a lot of people scattered in timezones in between is helping us succeed. It definitely takes coordination and a good team, but I think it can be really useful. Most of the experts for the super specific thing we're working on are actually in Europe, so it would be more challenging to do this project if we limited ourselves to north/south hiring.
datavirtue 5y ago
Offshoring failed for the same reason s we will not have the worries you espouse.
- zz865 5y ago
  I'm not sure why you think it failed, my company's biggest office is in India, same as my last job.
blahblahblogger 5y ago
Agreed. My company (Pinterest) recently opened "new offices" for engineering talent, but they were in Mexico City and elsewhere. The idea that we'll be competing with other US-based workers is wrong. In the long run our remote-work "more freedom" fantasy will come to an end.
silksowed 5y ago
i have plenty of gaps for short hikes but am yet to leave the house for it. next week ill test this out as recently i have run out of laundry to do during the boring parts of the day. good problem to have, need to be better about capitalizing on my free time
sails 5y ago
great article, I think you should extend this thought as the market settles post pandemic. I also enjoyed some of the articles you linked. Great rabbit hole! Any thoughts/improvements on the original post? Fwiw, I'm building a team in South Africa to service Europe based on the exact premise of the article. Culturally similar, timezone, legal structure.

Sevii 5y ago

The focus on programmers as the vanguard of the remote work trend distracts from what could be the real change the outsourcing of white collar work. Why do we need our lawyers, accountants, human resources and other back office employees to be American when Chilean workers will do those jobs for half or a quarter the pay? What outsourcing did to manufacturing jobs, remote work may do to white collar jobs.

joelbluminator 5y ago
Law and accountancy is much harder to outsource than programming. You usually have to be U.S certified so thats pretty much protected.
- ThalesX 5y ago
  You have the Ubers and AirBnBs circumventing laws around the world and you think it's hard to optimize for a remote law and accountancy practice? Just have offshore remoters do the bulk of work and have it signed by a certified local lawyer / accountant.
  - joelbluminator 5y ago
    It's not impossible I guess, you will need to find people who know U.S law well. If you're talking about accountancy that's pretty complex stuff. You can outsource the grunt work easily (going over Excel sheets, that has been ousourced for decades already) but the substantial work no, I don't think it's that easy.
    - ThalesX 5y ago
      I don't think it's easy either. There are smart people everywhere in the world. If these people could be easily paid and could get their results validated by a local expert, there would be a lot of financial incentive for these smart people to learn the US law, for example, and create case files for the local experts to evaluate and sign on. Would it cut the need for the local experts? No. Would it reduce their numbers? Maybe, it could also diversify them. Would it lower the cost for the service? I also think so.
      - PaulDavisThe1st 5y ago
        Would it result in the "superstar" local experts (to use TFA's terminology) making huge amounts of money? Almost certainly.
      - joelbluminator 5y ago
        I think the big disruption will be automation especially for accountancy, so much of it is grunt work.
  - lthornberry 5y ago
    Certified lawyers/accountants have ethical compliance responsibilities. They should be doing meaningful review, not just "signing off." There are savings to be realized, but they are more limited than one might think. The difference here is that there are professional associations with both the ability to discipline people who don't follow the rules, and a deep interest in doing so.
    - 5y ago
- justaguy88 5y ago
  You could set up a US Law school in another country
  - PaulDavisThe1st 5y ago
    The school is less of a problem than the state-by-state bar exam, I believe.
    - sangnoir 5y ago
      You don't need to pass the bar to be a paralegal & do the grunt work while the firm is billing US rates. Bigger law and accounting firms already utilize this model, whereby entry level employees do the bulk of the raw work, and the audit report/advisory/legal filing gets pushed up the hierarchy while being simultaneously refined and improved, sometimes sent back down the chain. Many revisions later, the final version is signed off, by someone who has passed the state bar, and possibly has their name on the building - if the client is a big deal.
  - ghaff 5y ago
    There's no shortage of lawyers and law school grads from 2nd and 3rd tier schools aren't actually all that well paid on average. The big NY white shoe firm salaries? They mostly come from a relatively small number of schools, students who did well, often had good internships or clerkships, maybe were on law review, maybe have connections, etc.
- mateo411 5y ago
  For lawyers they can only practice law in the states in which they have passed the bar in. So, it's even more restricted. If you want to practice in another state, then I think you need to take the bar for that state. It's a 3 day test. You also have to take the CPA exam to become a CPA, but that looks like you can transfer your accreditation to another state.

joelbluminator 5y ago

There are real drawbacks to remote only in terms of culture and employee committment. Those who can afford it will probably keep being hybrid I think. Those who want to cut costs will outsource. But since software companies are swimming in money I am not sure its a huge priority.

justaguy88 5y ago

Time zone 'compatibility' is extremely important Happily hire north/south, but too many hours east/west and people have to give up off-time just to have regular meetings

bluekite2000 5y ago
East/West can work well as well. I have a team in Vietnam with USA clients and we just do 1h overlap per day. Too many meetings may not be a good thing.
mariojv 5y ago
I think it really depends on the type of work and people involved whether east/west can work well. We're working with some contractors with a 9 hour time difference between headquarters and their office, but having really efficient weekly check-ins against concrete, written goals, good async communication, and a lot of people scattered in timezones in between is helping us succeed. It definitely takes coordination and a good team, but I think it can be really useful. Most of the experts for the super specific thing we're working on are actually in Europe, so it would be more challenging to do this project if we limited ourselves to north/south hiring.

datavirtue 5y ago

Offshoring failed for the same reason s we will not have the worries you espouse.

zz865 5y ago
I'm not sure why you think it failed, my company's biggest office is in India, same as my last job.

blahblahblogger 5y ago

Agreed. My company (Pinterest) recently opened "new offices" for engineering talent, but they were in Mexico City and elsewhere. The idea that we'll be competing with other US-based workers is wrong. In the long run our remote-work "more freedom" fantasy will come to an end.

silksowed 5y ago

i have plenty of gaps for short hikes but am yet to leave the house for it. next week ill test this out as recently i have run out of laundry to do during the boring parts of the day. good problem to have, need to be better about capitalizing on my free time

sails 5y ago

great article, I think you should extend this thought as the market settles post pandemic. I also enjoyed some of the articles you linked. Great rabbit hole! Any thoughts/improvements on the original post? Fwiw, I'm building a team in South Africa to service Europe based on the exact premise of the article. Culturally similar, timezone, legal structure.