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“ however the absolute risk is still low.” For an 18 year male athlete, is the risk lower than the risk from COVID? That’s the appropriate question. We don’t s

“ however the absolute risk is still low.” For an 18 year male athlete, is the risk lower than the risk from COVID? That’s the appropriate question. We don’t screen boys for prostate cancer. Why is that? How do we know the vast majority of deaths are in the unvaccinated? Also, is it possible that vaccination status influences medical care? Can we do randomized blind studies to test your assertion? You are probably right, but given the lack of public reporting and the fact that people who make this claim never qualify it with the age or health status makes me deeply skeptical.

michaelmrose 5y ago
An 18 year old male athlete absolutely should get vaccinated. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/myocarditis.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/my... People have reported 1339 (778 confirmed) cases of myocarditis or pericarditis out of 363 million doses. This is not to say that the vaccine caused every case. Incidence in the general population is 10-22 per 100k. If I read that correctly as the annually. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32127272/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32127272/ Then one would expect 300-750 cases to occur within the same week in a vaccinated patient naturally. Another confounding factor is covid is known to cause the same thing so its entirely possible that we are vaccinating people with covid or whom have gotten over covid and in some cases blaming the vaccine for the effect of the disease. Let us suppose that all reported cases are ultimately confirmed and one would expect 300 cases without the vaccination and thus the vaccine caused 1000 extra cases in 363M doses. This is a 1 in 363,000 chance of a side effect that rarely kills you. In that same 363,000 if infected with covid will see 726 deaths 0.002 death rate and most will have some sort of lung damage even if they were perceptively asymptomatic. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/09/200906202950.htm https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/09/200906202950.h...
- roenxi 5y ago
  There is no way they're catching all the cases though; I'd be ok with betting that most 18 year olds aren't going to be able to recognise heart pain. It is legitimate to be worried. > In that same 363,000 if infected with covid will see 726 deaths We're talking about people who have already survived COVID.
  - michaelmrose 5y ago
    With a highly infectious disease and public health measures that aren't liable to last forever if you do not get vaccinated you will almost surely eventually be infected. The appropriate comparison is chance of infection(near 100%) * chance of negative consequences * cost of consequences vs chance of vaccine related injury * cost of vaccine related injury + newly reduced chance of infection and negative effects if infected anyway. An 18 year old male who will eventually get covid if not vaccinated is trading a 1 in 500 chance of death and a 60% chance of lung damage for a 1 in 363,000 chance of myocarditis with a drastically reduced chance of getting covid which will if contracted virtually certainly be mild. It's legitimate to be worried about anything that may effect the health of your family but if you actually understand the numbers its crazy not to get vaccinated.
    - roenxi 5y ago
      > An 18 year old male who will eventually get covid if not vaccinated At risk of repeating myself, this thread is about people who have already had COVID. Getting vaccinated isn't going to radically change the odds of what happens in the future. And thanks to mutations, it is quite likely that if they get the vaccine they're going to catch COVID eventually anyway.

michaelmrose 5y ago

An 18 year old male athlete absolutely should get vaccinated. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/myocarditis.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/my... People have reported 1339 (778 confirmed) cases of myocarditis or pericarditis out of 363 million doses. This is not to say that the vaccine caused every case. Incidence in the general population is 10-22 per 100k. If I read that correctly as the annually. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32127272/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32127272/ Then one would expect 300-750 cases to occur within the same week in a vaccinated patient naturally. Another confounding factor is covid is known to cause the same thing so its entirely possible that we are vaccinating people with covid or whom have gotten over covid and in some cases blaming the vaccine for the effect of the disease. Let us suppose that all reported cases are ultimately confirmed and one would expect 300 cases without the vaccination and thus the vaccine caused 1000 extra cases in 363M doses. This is a 1 in 363,000 chance of a side effect that rarely kills you. In that same 363,000 if infected with covid will see 726 deaths 0.002 death rate and most will have some sort of lung damage even if they were perceptively asymptomatic. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/09/200906202950.htm https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/09/200906202950.h...

roenxi 5y ago
There is no way they're catching all the cases though; I'd be ok with betting that most 18 year olds aren't going to be able to recognise heart pain. It is legitimate to be worried. > In that same 363,000 if infected with covid will see 726 deaths We're talking about people who have already survived COVID.
- michaelmrose 5y ago
  With a highly infectious disease and public health measures that aren't liable to last forever if you do not get vaccinated you will almost surely eventually be infected. The appropriate comparison is chance of infection(near 100%) * chance of negative consequences * cost of consequences vs chance of vaccine related injury * cost of vaccine related injury + newly reduced chance of infection and negative effects if infected anyway. An 18 year old male who will eventually get covid if not vaccinated is trading a 1 in 500 chance of death and a 60% chance of lung damage for a 1 in 363,000 chance of myocarditis with a drastically reduced chance of getting covid which will if contracted virtually certainly be mild. It's legitimate to be worried about anything that may effect the health of your family but if you actually understand the numbers its crazy not to get vaccinated.
  - roenxi 5y ago
    > An 18 year old male who will eventually get covid if not vaccinated At risk of repeating myself, this thread is about people who have already had COVID. Getting vaccinated isn't going to radically change the odds of what happens in the future. And thanks to mutations, it is quite likely that if they get the vaccine they're going to catch COVID eventually anyway.