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Correlation is not causation, but there certainly is a lot of evidence that causally links poverty with crime and drug-use, and poverty from accumulating petty

Correlation is not causation, but there certainly is a lot of evidence that causally links poverty with crime and drug-use, and poverty from accumulating petty fines and late-fee penalties. It seems to me the burden is on the broken-window excuse of a hypothesis. I've spent weeks in a middle-class community never seeing a cop. Surprise surprise, the crime-rate is low...Yet I knew that plenty of recreational drugs were flowing through this white-middle class community...it was barely hidden. Meanwhile, in poorer communities like where I grew up, police are everywhere patrolling, waiting to harass anyone they don't like the look of... hell I was interrogated for sitting in my front yard once.

spideymans 5y ago
I've been blessed to run in many different social circles in life. Poor black kids, incredibly wealthy white kids, I've seen it all. My experience is completely in line with yours. The wealthy white kids I was around were loaded with hard drugs. Coke use was rampant. I could open random drawers at my friends place and see bags of the stuff. Heck, some were outright dealing the stuff. Meanwhile my poorer black friends pretty much only smoked weed, while occasionally dabbling in some other minor drugs (mushrooms, MDMA, etc...). Of course the only ones with stores of police harassment were my poorer friends. My rich friends got away with anything they wanted
- _-david-_ 5y ago
  Statistical speaking, areas with higher rates of blacks have higher violent crime rates so it is possible cops are patrolling the black areas at a higher rate. This would lead to increased police which would lead to increased harassment just because there are more cops.
Stupulous 5y ago
I don't think this works as a causal explanation. A decrease in petty fines shouldn't be significant enough at changing poverty to be reflected in crime rates in just a couple months. You'd also expect a delay as the fines that would otherwise be demanded in that time wouldn't be collected for some months, I assume. As an alternative, maybe people who are mistreated by police become immediately more likely to commit crimes? Or maybe police who would otherwise be doing proactive policing are doing something more beneficial instead? Those are just speculations, though.
- SubiculumCode 5y ago
  Many people cannot pay their fines, or it requires significant tradeoffs. And it is so easy for things to roll out of control. Once the due date is past, the fine is doubled or triple. A $200 fine can become 400 or $600. Now its harder to pay, and so it doesn't because your car broke down and the kids are hungry. A warrant is issued for your arrest. They arrest you while at work. Even though you are out again the next morning, your work fired you, and won't give you a good reference. You get a knock on your door. Rent is due. Then two months. You feel fucked. A neighbor offers you relief, a fun night with some meth. You consider, but decide not too. You get kicked out for not paying rent. Now you are back living at your mom's. You feel like a loser, but at least its a roof. But she's an ass. She forgets to tell you of a phone call inviting your to an interview. But you have to make it to court to plead guilty/mercy for not paying your fines, but your sister calls you right before. She just got beat up down the street, and needs you to pick her up. Your are 5 minutes late, and the judge doesn't care. On the way home, you get pulled over for expired tags. New ticket. I guess you won't pay the car payment this month. Your car get repossessed. It costs 200 +%40/day + $400 in late payments. You borrow some money from the neighbor. He's creeepy but get your car back. Insurance is due. Tags are not paid. You are afraid to drive. You don't have a job. Meanwhile your creepy neighbor will forgive your debt if you get on your knees. You decide to not pay him, but he grabs you anyway. Rapes you. Police don't believe you. You are a poor slut. Your friend says come over and says let's party. You do. You get high. You keep getting high. You sleep with someone because they have a hit. He says, damn you hot, you could make some good money, and leaves a little for the road. You start jonesing, then take him up on the offer. Next thing you know you are a hooked junky prostitute. You sell your car for next to nothing and a blowjob. Your mom kicks you out. Now you live by the river with Frank. Frank protects you but he's an alcoholic. I made this up, but this is how it works. THis is how it worked for people I know.
  - Stupulous 5y ago
    I'm not disputing that there is a link between fines and poverty or between poverty and crime. But I can't fathom how 5% of assaults and burglaries are a direct result of getting a fine in the last two months. Even in your perfect storm story, it's three or four months before you commit a crime. If you got fined before the slowdown, the fine still applies and still doubles. If you would have been fined during the slowdown but aren't, you would have had a month to pay anyway. You can also set up a payment plan to pay your fine over a period of a couple years. I don't doubt that some small portion of the effect is exactly this. But 5% reduction in a month seems like far too much. I'm not even sure if there was a big reduction in fines- how many fines come out of proactive policing? I don't know, it's not totally impossible. It just seems less likely than the null hypothesis of random variation in the data, while a more direct relationship could compete.

spideymans 5y ago

I've been blessed to run in many different social circles in life. Poor black kids, incredibly wealthy white kids, I've seen it all. My experience is completely in line with yours. The wealthy white kids I was around were loaded with hard drugs. Coke use was rampant. I could open random drawers at my friends place and see bags of the stuff. Heck, some were outright dealing the stuff. Meanwhile my poorer black friends pretty much only smoked weed, while occasionally dabbling in some other minor drugs (mushrooms, MDMA, etc...). Of course the only ones with stores of police harassment were my poorer friends. My rich friends got away with anything they wanted

_-david-_ 5y ago
Statistical speaking, areas with higher rates of blacks have higher violent crime rates so it is possible cops are patrolling the black areas at a higher rate. This would lead to increased police which would lead to increased harassment just because there are more cops.

Stupulous 5y ago

I don't think this works as a causal explanation. A decrease in petty fines shouldn't be significant enough at changing poverty to be reflected in crime rates in just a couple months. You'd also expect a delay as the fines that would otherwise be demanded in that time wouldn't be collected for some months, I assume. As an alternative, maybe people who are mistreated by police become immediately more likely to commit crimes? Or maybe police who would otherwise be doing proactive policing are doing something more beneficial instead? Those are just speculations, though.

SubiculumCode 5y ago
Many people cannot pay their fines, or it requires significant tradeoffs. And it is so easy for things to roll out of control. Once the due date is past, the fine is doubled or triple. A $200 fine can become 400 or $600. Now its harder to pay, and so it doesn't because your car broke down and the kids are hungry. A warrant is issued for your arrest. They arrest you while at work. Even though you are out again the next morning, your work fired you, and won't give you a good reference. You get a knock on your door. Rent is due. Then two months. You feel fucked. A neighbor offers you relief, a fun night with some meth. You consider, but decide not too. You get kicked out for not paying rent. Now you are back living at your mom's. You feel like a loser, but at least its a roof. But she's an ass. She forgets to tell you of a phone call inviting your to an interview. But you have to make it to court to plead guilty/mercy for not paying your fines, but your sister calls you right before. She just got beat up down the street, and needs you to pick her up. Your are 5 minutes late, and the judge doesn't care. On the way home, you get pulled over for expired tags. New ticket. I guess you won't pay the car payment this month. Your car get repossessed. It costs 200 +%40/day + $400 in late payments. You borrow some money from the neighbor. He's creeepy but get your car back. Insurance is due. Tags are not paid. You are afraid to drive. You don't have a job. Meanwhile your creepy neighbor will forgive your debt if you get on your knees. You decide to not pay him, but he grabs you anyway. Rapes you. Police don't believe you. You are a poor slut. Your friend says come over and says let's party. You do. You get high. You keep getting high. You sleep with someone because they have a hit. He says, damn you hot, you could make some good money, and leaves a little for the road. You start jonesing, then take him up on the offer. Next thing you know you are a hooked junky prostitute. You sell your car for next to nothing and a blowjob. Your mom kicks you out. Now you live by the river with Frank. Frank protects you but he's an alcoholic. I made this up, but this is how it works. THis is how it worked for people I know.
- Stupulous 5y ago
  I'm not disputing that there is a link between fines and poverty or between poverty and crime. But I can't fathom how 5% of assaults and burglaries are a direct result of getting a fine in the last two months. Even in your perfect storm story, it's three or four months before you commit a crime. If you got fined before the slowdown, the fine still applies and still doubles. If you would have been fined during the slowdown but aren't, you would have had a month to pay anyway. You can also set up a payment plan to pay your fine over a period of a couple years. I don't doubt that some small portion of the effect is exactly this. But 5% reduction in a month seems like far too much. I'm not even sure if there was a big reduction in fines- how many fines come out of proactive policing? I don't know, it's not totally impossible. It just seems less likely than the null hypothesis of random variation in the data, while a more direct relationship could compete.