4 ms·

>"“While we cannot entirely rule out the effects of under-reporting,” the authors wrote, “our results show that crime complaints decreased, rather than increase

by nickff 5y ago

>"“While we cannot entirely rule out the effects of under-reporting,” the authors wrote, “our results show that crime complaints decreased, rather than increased, during a slowdown in proactive policing, contrary to deterrence theory.”" >"Each week during the slowdown saw civilians report an estimated 43 fewer felony assaults, 40 fewer burglaries and 40 fewer acts of grand larceny. And this slight suppression of major crime rates actually continued for seven to 14 weeks after those drops in proactive policing — which led the researchers to estimate that overall, the slowdown resulted in about 2,100 fewer major-crimes complaints." The fact that assaults, robberies, and burglaries aren't being reported would seem to indicate that people just weren't bothering to contact the police, because they knew the police would not help. Murder, rape, and (hospital-reported) shooting rates dropping would be more indicative that less policing would reduce crime.

kevingadd 5y ago
Are you suggesting rape and murder have the same causes as assaults and burglaries? The article describes the claim that "proactive policing" creates pressures that would lead to (among other issues) assaults and robberies. Why would removing those pressures reduce the frequency of rape?
- nickff 5y ago
  I'm suggesting that assaults and burglaries tend to be under-reported, and would be more 'marginalized' by under-policing. I think the reporting rate for rape and murder is much higher (and less variable) than those of burglary and assault.
  - ipaddr 5y ago
    I would suggest the other way around. Many women don't report.
    - Mirioron 5y ago
      While that's true, assault is also very commonly not reported. I don't think I even realized before the age of 25 that I could report someone for hitting me. If something broke then I would think of it, but if it just hurt then no. With that being said aggravated assault accounted for 68.2% of violent crime in 2019 according to the FBI.[0] [0] https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-2019/topic-pages/violent-crime https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-...
- StanislavPetrov 5y ago
  >Are you suggesting rape and murder have the same causes as assaults and burglaries? They absolutely do - and the cause is having violent criminals running loose on the streets. The overwhelming majority of serious crime, from rape and murder to assault and burglary is committed by an extremely small number of people. When those people aren't removed from society after committing crimes, they are out on the street committing other crimes. As a resident of NY for over 4 decades I haven't seen the situation this bad since the bad old days of the 80s and 90s. The streets are littered with people booting up on the sidewalks, in midtown, in broad daylight. Aggressive "panhandlers" harass, threaten and assault passersby without fear of reproach or arrest. The fact that crimes are not being reported or prosecuted does not mean that there has been a reduction of crime - quite the opposite - which is abundantly apparent to anyone who lives here. Since the "no bail" law was passed as well as laws preventing people under 18 from being prosecuted as adults (among other things), there has been a massive spike in crime. In years passed, getting caught with an illegal gun, let alone using it in a crime, would mean automatic jail time. Today, that criminal is back out on the street in hours. There is a good reason that New Yorkers rejected Bill Deblasio's buddies in favor of former cop Eric Adams to be the next mayor - the city is a disaster zone.
  - kevingadd 5y ago
    There are many sources to support a claim that most rapists know their victims, rapes are not primarily committed by "violent criminals running loose on the streets". https://www.rainn.org/statistics/perpetrators-sexual-violence https://www.rainn.org/statistics/perpetrators-sexual-violenc...
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]

by nickff 5y ago

kevingadd 5y ago

Are you suggesting rape and murder have the same causes as assaults and burglaries? The article describes the claim that "proactive policing" creates pressures that would lead to (among other issues) assaults and robberies. Why would removing those pressures reduce the frequency of rape?

nickff 5y ago
I'm suggesting that assaults and burglaries tend to be under-reported, and would be more 'marginalized' by under-policing. I think the reporting rate for rape and murder is much higher (and less variable) than those of burglary and assault.
- ipaddr 5y ago
  I would suggest the other way around. Many women don't report.
  - Mirioron 5y ago
    While that's true, assault is also very commonly not reported. I don't think I even realized before the age of 25 that I could report someone for hitting me. If something broke then I would think of it, but if it just hurt then no. With that being said aggravated assault accounted for 68.2% of violent crime in 2019 according to the FBI.[0] [0] https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-2019/topic-pages/violent-crime https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-...
StanislavPetrov 5y ago
>Are you suggesting rape and murder have the same causes as assaults and burglaries? They absolutely do - and the cause is having violent criminals running loose on the streets. The overwhelming majority of serious crime, from rape and murder to assault and burglary is committed by an extremely small number of people. When those people aren't removed from society after committing crimes, they are out on the street committing other crimes. As a resident of NY for over 4 decades I haven't seen the situation this bad since the bad old days of the 80s and 90s. The streets are littered with people booting up on the sidewalks, in midtown, in broad daylight. Aggressive "panhandlers" harass, threaten and assault passersby without fear of reproach or arrest. The fact that crimes are not being reported or prosecuted does not mean that there has been a reduction of crime - quite the opposite - which is abundantly apparent to anyone who lives here. Since the "no bail" law was passed as well as laws preventing people under 18 from being prosecuted as adults (among other things), there has been a massive spike in crime. In years passed, getting caught with an illegal gun, let alone using it in a crime, would mean automatic jail time. Today, that criminal is back out on the street in hours. There is a good reason that New Yorkers rejected Bill Deblasio's buddies in favor of former cop Eric Adams to be the next mayor - the city is a disaster zone.
- kevingadd 5y ago
  There are many sources to support a claim that most rapists know their victims, rapes are not primarily committed by "violent criminals running loose on the streets". https://www.rainn.org/statistics/perpetrators-sexual-violence https://www.rainn.org/statistics/perpetrators-sexual-violenc...
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]