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Author here. Couple of things: 1. Not investment advice, as stated in the article. That said, I agree there is a lot of pump-and-dump going on in crypto. Do yo

Author here. Couple of things: 1. Not investment advice, as stated in the article. That said, I agree there is a lot of pump-and-dump going on in crypto. Do your own due diligence. 2. The main point was that if the typical HN reader feels late to adopt some technology or trend (with NFTs being the example of choice), they are still probably early compared to the rest of the population. 3. You can download the historical TQQQ data from Nasdaq along with historical Bitcoin pricing and take a look at the returns to date. (Bitcoin data starts just March 8, 2019, but it's not worth the time right now to find a bigger dataset.) Assuming you bought on the same day and held to yesterday, Bitcoin outperforms TQQQ on 58% of buy-in days: https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/funds-and-etfs/tqqq/historical https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/funds-and-etfs/tqqq/h... 4. Investing in a 3x levered Nasdaq 100 index reinforces the point that "we're still early" -- your investment thesis is that large-company tech innovation has a lot of room for growth. 5. Completely agree with the point that there are always additional financial opportunities coming. Don't FOMO in. Edit - Numbered my bullet points incorrectly; added clarity on dates for Bitcoin data.

arcticbull 5y ago
To borrow a question from Burry - do you know how much leverage is in crypto? I did the tqqq historical comparison on yahoo finance and explored it for all dates after roughly October 2017 and for most Buy in dates it outperformed. Selecting 2019 is pretty adverse since the collapse happened in 2018, so you exclude a giant range of down only days. Prior to late 2017 Bitcoin clearly outperformed. However the fact they’re competitive at all for the last 5 years says a lot when the narrative is that there’s no way to win in traditional finance. Quite false, you just have to find a vehicle that aligns with your risk tolerance. And if you set it to “holy moly that’s risky” like every crypto investment then similar or better returns are very achievable. Thanks for your clarifications! My point is more, are we early to the space? Maybe. Does that make it a good investment? Nobody can possibly know. Being early to Betamax did nobody any good. Will any particular coin or chain or technology win? Who knows. If it wins will it be valuable? Who knows! For it to win, it will by definition have to be in reach of the average individual so if you can match your ROI in an established market why on earth wouldn’t you? Also #nfa lol. I’ll be sitting on the sidelines making comparable returns without having to worry about which rock JPEG is going to make my kids inheritance haha. Currently the Google trends data on bitcoin is pancaking, the price is going up appatently, on basically zero volume, and the leading liquidity provider coin in the space (USDT) received DOJ target letters for all its executives for committing bank fraud. That’s gonna be a no for me, fam.

arcticbull 5y ago

To borrow a question from Burry - do you know how much leverage is in crypto? I did the tqqq historical comparison on yahoo finance and explored it for all dates after roughly October 2017 and for most Buy in dates it outperformed. Selecting 2019 is pretty adverse since the collapse happened in 2018, so you exclude a giant range of down only days. Prior to late 2017 Bitcoin clearly outperformed. However the fact they’re competitive at all for the last 5 years says a lot when the narrative is that there’s no way to win in traditional finance. Quite false, you just have to find a vehicle that aligns with your risk tolerance. And if you set it to “holy moly that’s risky” like every crypto investment then similar or better returns are very achievable. Thanks for your clarifications! My point is more, are we early to the space? Maybe. Does that make it a good investment? Nobody can possibly know. Being early to Betamax did nobody any good. Will any particular coin or chain or technology win? Who knows. If it wins will it be valuable? Who knows! For it to win, it will by definition have to be in reach of the average individual so if you can match your ROI in an established market why on earth wouldn’t you? Also #nfa lol. I’ll be sitting on the sidelines making comparable returns without having to worry about which rock JPEG is going to make my kids inheritance haha. Currently the Google trends data on bitcoin is pancaking, the price is going up appatently, on basically zero volume, and the leading liquidity provider coin in the space (USDT) received DOJ target letters for all its executives for committing bank fraud. That’s gonna be a no for me, fam.