5 ms·

The argument feels like survivorship bias. Yes, there are always new opportunities for good fortune, but there also is a constant stream of potential pitfalls a

The argument feels like survivorship bias. Yes, there are always new opportunities for good fortune, but there also is a constant stream of potential pitfalls and mishaps. One should not let the constant stream of social media and other arbitrary data provoke an irrational fear of missing out.

phil_e_delphian 5y ago
That might be a fair criticism of a reading of this as "you should speculate in NFTs". Less so if you follow the conclusion that recent sales of NFTs are the latest in a long line of mass adoption/mainstreaming of Blockchain tech and investments. From that perspective, it's more comparable to telling lifelong cash holders people to begin "investing" - there's certainly survivorship bias if you're looking at specific stocks/markets, but the thing to "buy into" is the ecosystem.
- arcticbull 5y ago
  Who in earth is a “lifelong cash holder”
  - phil_e_delphian 5y ago
    48% of the American populace, if we're talking participation in the stock market. A significantly higher percentage if we exclude those whose only holdings are in opt-out company-sponsored 401k plans. [0] More than 5% of US households are entirely "unbanked," so literally cash only. [1] I hope that fills in the knowledge gaps, so you can now engage with the content presented to you. [0] https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/03/25/more-than-half-of-u-s-households-have-some-investment-in-the-stock-market/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/03/25/more-than-h... [1] https://www.fdic.gov/analysis/household-survey/index.html https://www.fdic.gov/analysis/household-survey/index.html
    - arcticbull 5y ago
      Hold on haha, put away your snark. Just because someone doesn’t participate in the stock market doesn’t mean they’re “cash holders for life” - people do participate in real estate and accrue other assets. I would be stunned if those 48% of people were just stuffing cash in couch cushions. Not to mention why would we exclude 401(k)s? 57% of Americans don’t have a spare $500. [1] This sounds a suspicious amount like 48% + 5%. Give or take. The un-banked aren’t unbanked because bank accounts are inaccessible. They’ve got nothing to put in them. They’re not “lifelong cash holders” they’re broke. Cash non-holders if you will. So basically anyone with money invests it, and most people are hand-to-mouth broke. What exactly are they saving or investing? This is a fundamental social policy issue and not something you’re going to solve with blockchain magic. [1] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/most-americans-cant-afford-a-500-emergency-expense/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/most-americans-cant-afford-a-50...
      - phil_e_delphian 5y ago
        Yes, people with no money have trouble investing money, I'm not sure where I stated otherwise. But sure, let's continue down the rabbit hole of analyzing a group I referenced off-hand for the sake of a hypothetical example. wrt my comment about 401ks - they are often opt-out these days in part due to regulatory maneuvering on the part of the C-suite to protect their own benefits (e.g. safe harbor plans). Including folks with a 401k as "participants" in the stock market vastly overstates their actual investment activity and participation. More telling of actual participation is that 86% of households in the US don't own any individual stocks - most people with a 401k have it invested in whatever the default managed fund is. Convincing some portion of that 86% to participate on their own in the stock market is the parallel I was drawing - those with resources to participate in a financial system, which has lower barriers to entry than they might anticipate. "This is a fundamental social policy issue and not something you’re going to solve with blockchain magic." This conclusion is so orthogonal to the literal content, and point of my original comment that I can only recommend you reread it and start from there.
        arcticbull 5y ago
  - pope_meat 5y ago
    The poor's, like me.
    - arcticbull 5y ago
      Don’t poor folks not have money to invest?
      - pope_meat 5y ago
        Bingo. 50% of us are paycheck to paycheck, ain't much to invest when 70% of your income goes to the landlord...you know, to further invest.
        arcticbull 5y ago
        Yeah I’m sorry that’s really tough. Fingers crossed for ya things will get better.

phil_e_delphian 5y ago

That might be a fair criticism of a reading of this as "you should speculate in NFTs". Less so if you follow the conclusion that recent sales of NFTs are the latest in a long line of mass adoption/mainstreaming of Blockchain tech and investments. From that perspective, it's more comparable to telling lifelong cash holders people to begin "investing" - there's certainly survivorship bias if you're looking at specific stocks/markets, but the thing to "buy into" is the ecosystem.

arcticbull 5y ago
Who in earth is a “lifelong cash holder”
- phil_e_delphian 5y ago
  48% of the American populace, if we're talking participation in the stock market. A significantly higher percentage if we exclude those whose only holdings are in opt-out company-sponsored 401k plans. [0] More than 5% of US households are entirely "unbanked," so literally cash only. [1] I hope that fills in the knowledge gaps, so you can now engage with the content presented to you. [0] https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/03/25/more-than-half-of-u-s-households-have-some-investment-in-the-stock-market/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/03/25/more-than-h... [1] https://www.fdic.gov/analysis/household-survey/index.html https://www.fdic.gov/analysis/household-survey/index.html
  - arcticbull 5y ago
    Hold on haha, put away your snark. Just because someone doesn’t participate in the stock market doesn’t mean they’re “cash holders for life” - people do participate in real estate and accrue other assets. I would be stunned if those 48% of people were just stuffing cash in couch cushions. Not to mention why would we exclude 401(k)s? 57% of Americans don’t have a spare $500. [1] This sounds a suspicious amount like 48% + 5%. Give or take. The un-banked aren’t unbanked because bank accounts are inaccessible. They’ve got nothing to put in them. They’re not “lifelong cash holders” they’re broke. Cash non-holders if you will. So basically anyone with money invests it, and most people are hand-to-mouth broke. What exactly are they saving or investing? This is a fundamental social policy issue and not something you’re going to solve with blockchain magic. [1] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/most-americans-cant-afford-a-500-emergency-expense/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/most-americans-cant-afford-a-50...
    - phil_e_delphian 5y ago
      Yes, people with no money have trouble investing money, I'm not sure where I stated otherwise. But sure, let's continue down the rabbit hole of analyzing a group I referenced off-hand for the sake of a hypothetical example. wrt my comment about 401ks - they are often opt-out these days in part due to regulatory maneuvering on the part of the C-suite to protect their own benefits (e.g. safe harbor plans). Including folks with a 401k as "participants" in the stock market vastly overstates their actual investment activity and participation. More telling of actual participation is that 86% of households in the US don't own any individual stocks - most people with a 401k have it invested in whatever the default managed fund is. Convincing some portion of that 86% to participate on their own in the stock market is the parallel I was drawing - those with resources to participate in a financial system, which has lower barriers to entry than they might anticipate. "This is a fundamental social policy issue and not something you’re going to solve with blockchain magic." This conclusion is so orthogonal to the literal content, and point of my original comment that I can only recommend you reread it and start from there.
      - arcticbull 5y ago
- pope_meat 5y ago
  The poor's, like me.
  - arcticbull 5y ago
    Don’t poor folks not have money to invest?
    - pope_meat 5y ago
      Bingo. 50% of us are paycheck to paycheck, ain't much to invest when 70% of your income goes to the landlord...you know, to further invest.
      - arcticbull 5y ago
        Yeah I’m sorry that’s really tough. Fingers crossed for ya things will get better.