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For yes/no questions I think (but haven't checked the math) that the incentive is to shift the distribution closer to my opinion. If my opinion is, say, 75% tha
by chriswarbo 5y ago
For yes/no questions I think (but haven't checked the math) that the incentive is to shift the distribution closer to my opinion. If my opinion is, say, 75% that it's misleading, then the truthful response would be a coin toss with bias 75%.
However, if I know my answer will affect censorship, etc. then I may try to predict the resulting distribution, and vote yes if I predict it's less than 75%, and no if I predict it's more than 75%.
For example, I may be more "trigger happy" if I think people are more likely to believe something uncritically; I may be more of a "devil's advocate" if I think something is under-represented, or less likely to be taken seriously.