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Energy hasn't been increasing in cost ( not even gasoline in the US, really - although it's a messy dataset ). Raw materials and food are "marginally free" - it
by lcargill99 15y ago
Energy hasn't been increasing in cost ( not even gasoline in the US, really - although it's a messy dataset ). Raw materials and food are "marginally free" - it almost costs more to figure out how much more you need than to produce it, so long as there is no speculative run on the commodity.
The Internet (apparently) produces much more consumer surplus than it sinks in cost. I'd say it's deflationary because:
1) 1980s models of radio are completely infeasible.
2) 1980s models of television programming are pure-cost infeasible.
3) Cable TV is dependent on movie-replacement shows like "Breaking Bad" and sports.
4) There's a strong probability that theater-movies will follow the same curve as CD sales did with Napster, and soon.
The only things that are not essentially deflationary are housing, education, government and healthcare. Housing might be teetering on the brink of deflation. Education... who knows? And healthcare is likely to see something like deflation as status-oriented (read customer-perception quality stuff) gets squeezed out.
Government? Who knows?
- rdl 15y agoGas is over $4 per gallon, and people drive longer distances due to housing issues and the decline of public transportation. I drop $100 every time I go to whole foods, and I go a few times a week. Gas was $1-2 per gal until fairly recently (a few years ago), and food has gone up in both price and demanded quality. 2001-2007 was the majority of the increase, but that is due to the recession 2008-2011 and ongoing, at least outside tech. I agree the big commodity bubble was a bit of an exception, but if you took away the recession, headline inflation, if not core, would be way up.