An amphibious invasion of Taiwan will require months of build-up (that would be visible on satellite) and there are only a few windows during the year in which

An amphibious invasion of Taiwan will require months of build-up (that would be visible on satellite) and there are only a few windows during the year in which it could take place because of conditions in the Taiwan Strait. Such an invasion would be a binary event. If China fails, it's game over for the CCP. Not the kind of risk they're known for taking. If anything, I think Afghanistan will only increase Beijing's belief that America's decline is accelerating and it will eventually be able to get what it wants without a head-on kinetic conflict with the US. I've always thought a more likely scenario would be for China to first take Kinmen, which is trivially easy. The US is not going to risk WW3 over Kinmen and it would only be a symbolic victory, but it would put the US and Taiwan leadership in a very tough place.