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China isn't capable of taking Taiwan within that timeframe, but I'm afraid it could happen a lot sooner than the "experts" in the US expect. The US still has t

China isn't capable of taking Taiwan within that timeframe, but I'm afraid it could happen a lot sooner than the "experts" in the US expect. The US still has the most fearsome military the world has ever seen, but Afghanistan has demonstrated that the people at the top are not anywhere near as smart and capable as they think they are. That's a dangerous combination.

thepasswordis 5y ago
If China wants Taiwan, now is the time to take it. Americans have absolutely 0 appetite for war at the moment (certainly not if we aren't attacked directly), and the fighting force has a disdain for their leadership, whose arrogance and incompetence just saw 13 of their brothers killed in a single day.
- LurkingPenguin 5y ago
  An amphibious invasion of Taiwan will require months of build-up (that would be visible on satellite) and there are only a few windows during the year in which it could take place because of conditions in the Taiwan Strait. Such an invasion would be a binary event. If China fails, it's game over for the CCP. Not the kind of risk they're known for taking. If anything, I think Afghanistan will only increase Beijing's belief that America's decline is accelerating and it will eventually be able to get what it wants without a head-on kinetic conflict with the US. I've always thought a more likely scenario would be for China to first take Kinmen, which is trivially easy. The US is not going to risk WW3 over Kinmen and it would only be a symbolic victory, but it would put the US and Taiwan leadership in a very tough place.
- scottLobster 5y ago
  Taiwan has semiconductors and is an actual ally against China. Afghanistan was a politically toxic occupation without a purpose. If China thinks America looks at Taiwan the same as Afghanistan they've got another thing coming. Granted strategic incompetence seems to be the flavor of the moment, so who knows?
- ceejayoz 5y ago
  > 13 of their brothers 11. Two servicewomen were killed.

thepasswordis 5y ago

If China wants Taiwan, now is the time to take it. Americans have absolutely 0 appetite for war at the moment (certainly not if we aren't attacked directly), and the fighting force has a disdain for their leadership, whose arrogance and incompetence just saw 13 of their brothers killed in a single day.

LurkingPenguin 5y ago
An amphibious invasion of Taiwan will require months of build-up (that would be visible on satellite) and there are only a few windows during the year in which it could take place because of conditions in the Taiwan Strait. Such an invasion would be a binary event. If China fails, it's game over for the CCP. Not the kind of risk they're known for taking. If anything, I think Afghanistan will only increase Beijing's belief that America's decline is accelerating and it will eventually be able to get what it wants without a head-on kinetic conflict with the US. I've always thought a more likely scenario would be for China to first take Kinmen, which is trivially easy. The US is not going to risk WW3 over Kinmen and it would only be a symbolic victory, but it would put the US and Taiwan leadership in a very tough place.
scottLobster 5y ago
Taiwan has semiconductors and is an actual ally against China. Afghanistan was a politically toxic occupation without a purpose. If China thinks America looks at Taiwan the same as Afghanistan they've got another thing coming. Granted strategic incompetence seems to be the flavor of the moment, so who knows?
ceejayoz 5y ago
> 13 of their brothers 11. Two servicewomen were killed.