This is not a valid comparison because you're using the case fatality rate (1.8%), and case means symptomatic illness (a majority of infections are not symptoma

This is not a valid comparison because you're using the case fatality rate (1.8%), and case means symptomatic illness (a majority of infections are not symptomatic). A fair comparison would use the infection fatality rate (IFR), which is the risk of death after being infected. Recent meta analyses estimate a global average IFR of ~0.15% [1], which is extremely biased by age. All age stratified IFRs show risk that decreases by orders of magnitude with age. We're talking IFRs below 0.003% for healthy young adults and children [2][3]. I'm not advocating against vaccination, just illustrating that the risk-reward profile is different for everyone based on their age and health. If you want to derive useful probabilistic risk estimates, there are many complex factors to consider. [1] Assessing the age specificity of infection fatality rates for COVID-19: systematic review, meta-analysis, and public policy implications https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-020-00698-1 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-020-00698-1 [2] Infection fatality rate of COVID-19 inferred from seroprevalence data https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7947934/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7947934/ [3] COVID-19 antibody seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California https://academic.oup.com/ije/article/50/2/410/6146069 https://academic.oup.com/ije/article/50/2/410/6146069