5 ms·
Yes although the delta variant has undermined the efficacy of vaccines at preventing infection (from 91% to 66% [1]), it is still fairly effective at preventing
by criticaltinker 5y ago
Yes although the delta variant has undermined the efficacy of vaccines at preventing infection (from 91% to 66% [1]), it is still fairly effective at preventing severe outcomes such as hospitalization and death.
> but a poor basis on which to shift policy from vaccination to infecting the entire population and blessing the survivors
This is not at all what the paper is suggesting, and people should not be interpreting it as such. The fact is that a vast majority of people infected by SARS-CoV-2 will survive without any severe outcomes. In fact a significant proportion (at least 33% and up to 65% [2][3], perhaps even more [4][5]) will be completely asymptomatic.
This has implications for vaccine strategy because supply of doses is limited - these findings imply that individuals who are immunologically naive or vulnerable due to age and comorbidities should be prioritized for vaccination, rather than people who have already acquired robust and durable immunity from natural infection [6].
[1] https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e4.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e4.htm
[2] The Proportion of SARS-CoV-2 Infections That Are Asymptomatic
https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/full/10.7326/M20-6976 https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/full/10.7326/M20-6976
[3] Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the general population: Analysis of nationwide serosurvey data in the Netherlands
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00768-y https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00768-y
[4] Evaluating the massive underreporting and undertesting of COVID-19 cases in multiple global epicenters
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S253104372030129X https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S253104372...
[5] Undiagnosed SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity during the first 6 months of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States
https://stm.sciencemag.org/content/13/601/eabh3826 https://stm.sciencemag.org/content/13/601/eabh3826
[6] Model-informed COVID-19 vaccine prioritization strategies by age and serostatus
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/371/6532/916.full.pdf https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/371/6532/916.full...
- kafkaIncarnate 5y ago> This is not at all what the paper is suggesting, and people should not be interpreting it as such. I don't think the OP meant that the paper is suggesting that, the article linked makes it clear that Senators (such as Rand Paul) are using this pre-print paper to suggest exactly that. Rand Paul has a lot of clout and influence over the various narratives in this country, especially against protective mandates. In his world, public policy would be non-existent, and the will of the people would be enacted through market forces (choosing to go to certain businesses based on their personal decisions to impose mandates as a business on their customers or employees). Then the market decides if we actually as a country naturally fight against the virus at all or instead help it spread, and further divide the country based on people's uninformed individual purchasing choices. The science really doesn't enter the picture for Rand Paul, despite him being a medical doctor, because to him government intervention in anything is always inherently bad.