4 ms·

The idea that we do gain of function research in urban areas is mind boggling to me. If someone told you they were working on experimental nuclear warheads, yo

by feral 5y ago

The idea that we do gain of function research in urban areas is mind boggling to me. If someone told you they were working on experimental nuclear warheads, you'd think they were crazy if their lab was in a city. But they experiment with dangerous pathogens in cities of millions of people, and the janitors go home to their families every evening. I don't know whether covid escaped from a lab, and I don't know whether the benefits of GoF research outweighs the risks. But if the research is so important, it should be done in the desert somewhere with a long quarantine period on exit. I'm sure the appropriate labs are designed to never let the pathogens escape. Sure; when the stakes are this high, backstop it.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
bbfjgktmnrnrn 5y ago
They were asked about this recently on This Week in Virology, the most important virology podcast. They said that no scientist wants to work in a remote location, they want to have a city social life. Which is why these labs are typically located in million+ cities. They also said that this is safe, because no pandemic to date started from a lab, and that eventually it will be proven that this pandemic is zoonotic too. They also said that they do not understand why a year and a half in people keep on talking about this baseless conspiracy theory.
- AntiDyatlov 5y ago
  Surely they don't believe the odds of GOF research producing a much more lethal pandemic than the one we're dealing with are 0%. At the same time, nobody ever showed that GOF research has benefits commensurate with the risks. It would appear the virologists are not trustworthy.
- feral 5y ago
  > They said that no scientist wants to work in a remote location, they want to have a city social life. Which is why these labs are typically located in million+ cities. Sounds honest, but selfish given how the most recent pandemic took out the 'city social lives' of hundreds of millions of non-virologists. Hard to understand the cost:benefit there. > They also said that this is safe, because no pandemic to date started from a lab, That's got to be the least reassuring safety argument I have ever heard. >They also said that they do not understand why a year and a half in people keep on talking about this baseless conspiracy theory. Kills millions directly; massive indirect costs; a year and a half later virologists don't understand that its a problem that we're not certain it didn't come from a lab. Not an expert, but at these stakes, it makes it sound like there's no adults in charge.
  - tzs 5y ago
    > Kills millions directly; massive indirect costs; a year and a half later virologists don't understand that its a problem that we're not certain it didn't come from a lab. It has only been a year and a half. It typically takes several years or even decades to trace a new virus in humans back to its origin.
    - feral 5y ago
      I don't mean we should be sure it couldn't have been a lab escape because we have found the natural origin. I mean we should be sure it wasn't a lab escape because lab escapes have a prior probability extremely close to zero. There are lots of smart folk, and intelligence agencies, trying to figure out whether covid is a natural event or a lab leak, and very few analyzes seem to be starting off with "as we all know, because of X, Y, and Z, lab escapes are effectively impossible, and these labs are so well designed that human error never results in accidents, so..."
- thewakalix 5y ago
  > They also said that this is safe, because no pandemic to date started from a lab Not quite the same order of magnitude, but a certain reaction comes to mind: > THAT IS NOT REASSURING! HAVEN'T YOU PEOPLE EVER HEARD OF THE ANTHROPIC PRINCIPLE?
- inglor_cz 5y ago
  Technically, they are right. No pandemic ever started from a lab. But the 2007 British foot and mouth disease outbreak indeed started from a lab. Fortunately this disease can be controlled fairly well as long as you are willing to slaughter anything in wide circles around the case clusters. So, no global pandemic. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_United_Kingdom_foot-and-mouth_outbreak https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_United_Kingdom_foot-and-m... A similar human disease would be much harder to stop.
sampo 5y ago
> I don't know whether the benefits of GoF research outweighs the risks It should be obvious now, that all the gain-of-function research done on coronaviruses didn't help at all with this pandemic. Gain-of-function researchers didn't contribute to vaccine development, vaccines were developed by different people.
throwawaysea 5y ago
It’s also not solely about the lab design. The people and the processes matter. In fact that’s one of the key issues with WIV - they performed GoF with SARS like coronaviruses at a lab with undertrained staff that didn’t understand safety protocols. This was documented by the Washington Post’s Josh Rogin before lab leak theory became a political football, and was known to the US state department a few years ago: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/03/08/josh-rogin-chaos-under-heaven-wuhan-lab-book-excerpt-474322 https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/03/08/josh-rogin...
Borrible 5y ago
It's all fun and games until someone gets poked in the eye. And tickling the Dragons Tail is great fun. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demon_core https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demon_core You need people that like to have that kind of fun and don't really care about the risks. Since they are underpaid in relation to the potential risk, a risk they absolutely know but don't care about, because its so small in their own calculations, you have to give them at least some incentives. They don't do it just for the scientific fame or out of patriotism anymore. And they are really bright guys and girls. At least they were told. They were selected for it. Oh, of course they were also selected for following the security guidelines. They are good boys and girls. That helps them to hide the dangers from their conscience. And none of them would ever doubt their own calculations or that of their superiors. Everything is under control, nothing can happen, everything is safe. We calculated at least twice. Until an eye is poked out. Or a lot of eyes. And even if something happens, who cares about a few dozen or hundred expendables at most, in the long run? I already said, it can't be more, because of our safety routines and our extremely bright guys and girls that we need to tickle the Dragons Tail. Setting the labs up in population centers for other reasons, lab phase two? Now come on, that is conspiracy theory and Resident Evil Science. “The main thing that I learned about conspiracy theory, is that conspiracy theorists believe in a conspiracy because that is more comforting. The truth of the world is that it is actually chaotic. The truth is that it is not The Iluminati, or The Jewish Banking Conspiracy, or the Gray Alien Theory. The truth is far more frightening - Nobody is in control. The world is rudderless.” Alan Moore https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/662444-the-main-thing-that-i-learned-about-conspiracy-theory-is https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/662444-the-main-thing-that-... But then again, only the paranoid survive and being paranoid doesn't mean, they are not after you. ;-)

by feral 5y ago

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

bbfjgktmnrnrn 5y ago

They were asked about this recently on This Week in Virology, the most important virology podcast. They said that no scientist wants to work in a remote location, they want to have a city social life. Which is why these labs are typically located in million+ cities. They also said that this is safe, because no pandemic to date started from a lab, and that eventually it will be proven that this pandemic is zoonotic too. They also said that they do not understand why a year and a half in people keep on talking about this baseless conspiracy theory.

AntiDyatlov 5y ago
Surely they don't believe the odds of GOF research producing a much more lethal pandemic than the one we're dealing with are 0%. At the same time, nobody ever showed that GOF research has benefits commensurate with the risks. It would appear the virologists are not trustworthy.
feral 5y ago
> They said that no scientist wants to work in a remote location, they want to have a city social life. Which is why these labs are typically located in million+ cities. Sounds honest, but selfish given how the most recent pandemic took out the 'city social lives' of hundreds of millions of non-virologists. Hard to understand the cost:benefit there. > They also said that this is safe, because no pandemic to date started from a lab, That's got to be the least reassuring safety argument I have ever heard. >They also said that they do not understand why a year and a half in people keep on talking about this baseless conspiracy theory. Kills millions directly; massive indirect costs; a year and a half later virologists don't understand that its a problem that we're not certain it didn't come from a lab. Not an expert, but at these stakes, it makes it sound like there's no adults in charge.
- tzs 5y ago
  > Kills millions directly; massive indirect costs; a year and a half later virologists don't understand that its a problem that we're not certain it didn't come from a lab. It has only been a year and a half. It typically takes several years or even decades to trace a new virus in humans back to its origin.
  - feral 5y ago
    I don't mean we should be sure it couldn't have been a lab escape because we have found the natural origin. I mean we should be sure it wasn't a lab escape because lab escapes have a prior probability extremely close to zero. There are lots of smart folk, and intelligence agencies, trying to figure out whether covid is a natural event or a lab leak, and very few analyzes seem to be starting off with "as we all know, because of X, Y, and Z, lab escapes are effectively impossible, and these labs are so well designed that human error never results in accidents, so..."
thewakalix 5y ago
> They also said that this is safe, because no pandemic to date started from a lab Not quite the same order of magnitude, but a certain reaction comes to mind: > THAT IS NOT REASSURING! HAVEN'T YOU PEOPLE EVER HEARD OF THE ANTHROPIC PRINCIPLE?
inglor_cz 5y ago
Technically, they are right. No pandemic ever started from a lab. But the 2007 British foot and mouth disease outbreak indeed started from a lab. Fortunately this disease can be controlled fairly well as long as you are willing to slaughter anything in wide circles around the case clusters. So, no global pandemic. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_United_Kingdom_foot-and-mouth_outbreak https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_United_Kingdom_foot-and-m... A similar human disease would be much harder to stop.

sampo 5y ago

> I don't know whether the benefits of GoF research outweighs the risks It should be obvious now, that all the gain-of-function research done on coronaviruses didn't help at all with this pandemic. Gain-of-function researchers didn't contribute to vaccine development, vaccines were developed by different people.

throwawaysea 5y ago

It’s also not solely about the lab design. The people and the processes matter. In fact that’s one of the key issues with WIV - they performed GoF with SARS like coronaviruses at a lab with undertrained staff that didn’t understand safety protocols. This was documented by the Washington Post’s Josh Rogin before lab leak theory became a political football, and was known to the US state department a few years ago: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/03/08/josh-rogin-chaos-under-heaven-wuhan-lab-book-excerpt-474322 https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/03/08/josh-rogin...

Borrible 5y ago

It's all fun and games until someone gets poked in the eye. And tickling the Dragons Tail is great fun. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demon_core https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demon_core You need people that like to have that kind of fun and don't really care about the risks. Since they are underpaid in relation to the potential risk, a risk they absolutely know but don't care about, because its so small in their own calculations, you have to give them at least some incentives. They don't do it just for the scientific fame or out of patriotism anymore. And they are really bright guys and girls. At least they were told. They were selected for it. Oh, of course they were also selected for following the security guidelines. They are good boys and girls. That helps them to hide the dangers from their conscience. And none of them would ever doubt their own calculations or that of their superiors. Everything is under control, nothing can happen, everything is safe. We calculated at least twice. Until an eye is poked out. Or a lot of eyes. And even if something happens, who cares about a few dozen or hundred expendables at most, in the long run? I already said, it can't be more, because of our safety routines and our extremely bright guys and girls that we need to tickle the Dragons Tail. Setting the labs up in population centers for other reasons, lab phase two? Now come on, that is conspiracy theory and Resident Evil Science. “The main thing that I learned about conspiracy theory, is that conspiracy theorists believe in a conspiracy because that is more comforting. The truth of the world is that it is actually chaotic. The truth is that it is not The Iluminati, or The Jewish Banking Conspiracy, or the Gray Alien Theory. The truth is far more frightening - Nobody is in control. The world is rudderless.” Alan Moore https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/662444-the-main-thing-that-i-learned-about-conspiracy-theory-is https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/662444-the-main-thing-that-... But then again, only the paranoid survive and being paranoid doesn't mean, they are not after you. ;-)