6 ms·

You don't think $3.5 Billion spent on a project with little customers is noteworthy?

by typon 5y ago

vikramkr 5y ago
It's still an R&D effort- once they've spent that much on manufacturing and marketing, if they still have few customers then thats something else
- avg_dev 5y ago
  Once it works properly, you won't need to spend anything at all on marketing... people will flock to it in droves. Trucking will be up-ended. Freight will change. People will in a short period of time stop owning cars and call them as needed. I'm just not sure we'll ever get there.
  - ghaff 5y ago
    I'm pretty sure we'll see this on certain highways in certain weather conditions--which would actually be a killer feature for a lot of us. But it doesn't fundamentally change car ownership and use--and may or may not change trucking.
    - nytesky 5y ago
      Yeah, the actual driving part is just part of the job. You would need personnel at every stop along the route to handle refueling or changing trailers. As well security concerns to an unmanned vehicle laden with goods. I mean an automated cruise control would allow night driving and such some savings there.
      - sdenton4 5y ago
        Eh, imagine two drivers for eight trucks... Takes care of the security problem, so long as the US doesn't devolve into road banditry, and the humans can handle refueling, and the trucks can drive without the usual restrictions on human fatigue.
  - nytesky 5y ago
    Not owning a car seems hard for anyone with a life more complicated than single office drone. I often need to stash kids equipment in the car for later pickup; we keep medicine and books in the car used often, strollers, umbrellas, not to mention car seats. That’s a lot of stuff to lug between Uber to Uber. People who play sports after work, sales folks traveling with merchandise, etc. cars are a home away from home in our lifestyles.
    - Closi 5y ago
      IMO Society will adapt and people will find different solutions for these things. Take for instance two scenarios: * London - I used to live there and commute on the tube. Not everyone uses a car on a regular basis, except maybe to go to the supermarket. I didn't find it particularly hard to bring my sportswear in a bag and put a kindle in my jacket pocket. I assume New York is the same! * Amsterdam and The Hague - I used to travel to these cities often, and these societies exist almost entirely on bike. I have a car, but also manage to walk into work and not bring everything with me everywhere. It just seems like the assumption is "it will only work if it can support me doing exactly what I do now", but this sort of technology has the potential to completely change the way people work and live.
    - ghaff 5y ago
      Also cars equipped with boat racks, bike racks—often fairly specialized for specific equipment. Loading up cars the night before for a trip. Could definitely make a difference at the margins in cities but you already have Uber. This might cut price in half? A lot of people seem to assume that this makes taxi rides almost too cheap to meter relative to owning a car or taking an Uber. And I'm pretty sure that's not true. You don't pay yourself to drive and the US IRS deduction for mileage is something like 50 cents per mile. That's probably a pretty good floor for a robo-taxi including the mileage it takes to get to you.
    - 908B64B197 5y ago
      Waymo might end up replacing the second car, or get someone to travel the last miles to public transportation for the daily commute.
  - kc0bfv 5y ago
    "Once it works properly, you won't need to spend anything at all on marketing... people will flock to it in droves." I agree. However this really remains to be seen. If Waymo got everything working as right as they could it might still fail. This is a culture shift you're talking about, and even when past tech has required less to shift some has failed.
  - AtlasBarfed 5y ago
    Trucking and highway driving are so much easier. And will probably be solved far sooner by other people, and Waymo will have missed an obvious stepping stone, business scaler, revenue stream.
ghaff 5y ago
Personally I'm not convinced that Waymo isn't continuing to flush a whole lot of money down the toilet. But this is a test/prototype in an area where I assume most households own cars and rarely take taxis and ride shares around the local area. So the fact that not a lot of people are taking a Waymo except maybe for the novelty is utterly unsurprising.
bastawhiz 5y ago
But their Arizona test is just that, a test. They are (or at least they state that they're) polishing the experience of using the service. What better place to do that than in a place where demand isn't going to be especially high, with ideal weather and lots of well-kept roads? Surely nobody thinks the Arizona service is Waymo's best stab at a productionalized offering.

You don't think $3.5 Billion spent on a project with little customers is noteworthy?

by typon 5y ago

You don't think $3.5 Billion spent on a project with little customers is noteworthy?

It's still an R&D effort- once they've spent that much on manufacturing and marketing, if they still have few customers then thats something else

avg_dev 5y ago
Once it works properly, you won't need to spend anything at all on marketing... people will flock to it in droves. Trucking will be up-ended. Freight will change. People will in a short period of time stop owning cars and call them as needed. I'm just not sure we'll ever get there.
- ghaff 5y ago
  I'm pretty sure we'll see this on certain highways in certain weather conditions--which would actually be a killer feature for a lot of us. But it doesn't fundamentally change car ownership and use--and may or may not change trucking.
  - nytesky 5y ago
    Yeah, the actual driving part is just part of the job. You would need personnel at every stop along the route to handle refueling or changing trailers. As well security concerns to an unmanned vehicle laden with goods. I mean an automated cruise control would allow night driving and such some savings there.
    - sdenton4 5y ago
      Eh, imagine two drivers for eight trucks... Takes care of the security problem, so long as the US doesn't devolve into road banditry, and the humans can handle refueling, and the trucks can drive without the usual restrictions on human fatigue.
- nytesky 5y ago
  Not owning a car seems hard for anyone with a life more complicated than single office drone. I often need to stash kids equipment in the car for later pickup; we keep medicine and books in the car used often, strollers, umbrellas, not to mention car seats. That’s a lot of stuff to lug between Uber to Uber. People who play sports after work, sales folks traveling with merchandise, etc. cars are a home away from home in our lifestyles.
  - Closi 5y ago
    IMO Society will adapt and people will find different solutions for these things. Take for instance two scenarios: * London - I used to live there and commute on the tube. Not everyone uses a car on a regular basis, except maybe to go to the supermarket. I didn't find it particularly hard to bring my sportswear in a bag and put a kindle in my jacket pocket. I assume New York is the same! * Amsterdam and The Hague - I used to travel to these cities often, and these societies exist almost entirely on bike. I have a car, but also manage to walk into work and not bring everything with me everywhere. It just seems like the assumption is "it will only work if it can support me doing exactly what I do now", but this sort of technology has the potential to completely change the way people work and live.
  - ghaff 5y ago
    Also cars equipped with boat racks, bike racks—often fairly specialized for specific equipment. Loading up cars the night before for a trip. Could definitely make a difference at the margins in cities but you already have Uber. This might cut price in half? A lot of people seem to assume that this makes taxi rides almost too cheap to meter relative to owning a car or taking an Uber. And I'm pretty sure that's not true. You don't pay yourself to drive and the US IRS deduction for mileage is something like 50 cents per mile. That's probably a pretty good floor for a robo-taxi including the mileage it takes to get to you.
  - 908B64B197 5y ago
    Waymo might end up replacing the second car, or get someone to travel the last miles to public transportation for the daily commute.
- kc0bfv 5y ago
  "Once it works properly, you won't need to spend anything at all on marketing... people will flock to it in droves." I agree. However this really remains to be seen. If Waymo got everything working as right as they could it might still fail. This is a culture shift you're talking about, and even when past tech has required less to shift some has failed.
- AtlasBarfed 5y ago
  Trucking and highway driving are so much easier. And will probably be solved far sooner by other people, and Waymo will have missed an obvious stepping stone, business scaler, revenue stream.

ghaff 5y ago

Personally I'm not convinced that Waymo isn't continuing to flush a whole lot of money down the toilet. But this is a test/prototype in an area where I assume most households own cars and rarely take taxis and ride shares around the local area. So the fact that not a lot of people are taking a Waymo except maybe for the novelty is utterly unsurprising.

bastawhiz 5y ago

But their Arizona test is just that, a test. They are (or at least they state that they're) polishing the experience of using the service. What better place to do that than in a place where demand isn't going to be especially high, with ideal weather and lots of well-kept roads? Surely nobody thinks the Arizona service is Waymo's best stab at a productionalized offering.