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> Acute infections in vaccinated and unvaccinated people feature similar proliferation and peak Ct... If this is the case, what is the "long COVID" risk to peo

> Acute infections in vaccinated and unvaccinated people feature similar proliferation and peak Ct... If this is the case, what is the "long COVID" risk to people who experience breakthrough infections?

sudosysgen 5y ago
Lesser. They do say that vaccinated individuals clear the infection more quickly, and indeed cellular immunity takes some time to kick in. From that a good guess is that long covid risk is lower. Also, remember that selection bias still exists. There are going to be individuals with replication but lower viral loads that never get tested because they have no symptoms, and there will likely be a higher proportion of those in the vaccinated group.
- LurkingPenguin 5y ago
  I suspect that long COVID risk is lower in vaccinated individuals (and hope so as an expat who traveled halfway around the world to get vaccinated) but the risk should be quantified. There are a growing number of reports of people with breakthrough infections who are experiencing symptoms that aren't "mild", and some reports of people with "long COVID" like symptoms. It's not reason enough to panic, but it's concerning, especially in light of the fact that until very recently, health experts and the media kept telling us that breakthrough infections were "rare" even as it was becoming evident they weren't.
  - toiletaccount 5y ago
    Yeah it's probably not so rare. The errors in this case never fall on the side of false positive, and it's impossible they caught every breakthrough case. It follows that there are more breakthrough cases than what's reported. The point of contention is by what margin the CDC is off. If you really want to embiggen the problem, ask yourself how many people got covid but never got tested. The rate of mild infection is probably a lot higher than reported because only people with anxiety and/or serious covid bothered to get tested or hospitalized. Everyone else called in sick or didn't know/care. Disclaimer: I'm drunk.
  - Gibbon1 5y ago
    I think so. All evidence points to systemic infection being rarer in vaccinated people. Probably once the initial rush of antibodies dissipates, the virus can get a foothold in the sinuses easy enough. But most the time the immune system will squash it without much trouble. My feeling so far seems if you think of infection as a continuum then vaccines probably reduce detectable by PCR infection by 2/3rds. Symptomatic illness by 8 to 1. And serious illness by 30 to 1. But the risk from community spread can be high enough to overwhelm those odds. Where I live case rates are 25 higher than they were 8 weeks ago.

sudosysgen 5y ago

Lesser. They do say that vaccinated individuals clear the infection more quickly, and indeed cellular immunity takes some time to kick in. From that a good guess is that long covid risk is lower. Also, remember that selection bias still exists. There are going to be individuals with replication but lower viral loads that never get tested because they have no symptoms, and there will likely be a higher proportion of those in the vaccinated group.

LurkingPenguin 5y ago
I suspect that long COVID risk is lower in vaccinated individuals (and hope so as an expat who traveled halfway around the world to get vaccinated) but the risk should be quantified. There are a growing number of reports of people with breakthrough infections who are experiencing symptoms that aren't "mild", and some reports of people with "long COVID" like symptoms. It's not reason enough to panic, but it's concerning, especially in light of the fact that until very recently, health experts and the media kept telling us that breakthrough infections were "rare" even as it was becoming evident they weren't.
- toiletaccount 5y ago
  Yeah it's probably not so rare. The errors in this case never fall on the side of false positive, and it's impossible they caught every breakthrough case. It follows that there are more breakthrough cases than what's reported. The point of contention is by what margin the CDC is off. If you really want to embiggen the problem, ask yourself how many people got covid but never got tested. The rate of mild infection is probably a lot higher than reported because only people with anxiety and/or serious covid bothered to get tested or hospitalized. Everyone else called in sick or didn't know/care. Disclaimer: I'm drunk.
- Gibbon1 5y ago
  I think so. All evidence points to systemic infection being rarer in vaccinated people. Probably once the initial rush of antibodies dissipates, the virus can get a foothold in the sinuses easy enough. But most the time the immune system will squash it without much trouble. My feeling so far seems if you think of infection as a continuum then vaccines probably reduce detectable by PCR infection by 2/3rds. Symptomatic illness by 8 to 1. And serious illness by 30 to 1. But the risk from community spread can be high enough to overwhelm those odds. Where I live case rates are 25 higher than they were 8 weeks ago.