5 ms·

Are incarceration rates low because people behave or are they low because SF police don’t bother to arrest people?

by ecf 5y ago

space_fountain 5y ago
I think that's irrelevant to the point which is that in electing a candidate campaigning on criminal justice reform SFs voters are reacting more to national issues than local ones. SFs criminal justice system is already quite "reformed" and probably the issues that people are seeing aren't primarily in SF
ericd 5y ago
If you look at the property crime rates, it’s certainly not because people behave.
- pessimizer 5y ago
  It depends - are they 5x worse than cities with an average incarceration rate?
  - onos 5y ago
    I think your factor of five is on the “wrong side” of the equation here you’re thinking of. Ie if the crime rate were 5 x that of other cities AND the incarceration rate were 5 x lower, that would mean criminals were 25 x less likely to be prosecuted in SF.
searealist 5y ago
SF's incarceration rates are consistent with its demographics.
lubujackson 5y ago
Low because they don't arrest anyone. But that isn't on the police - they don't arrest anyone because the DA doesn't prosecute anyone. Property crime is sky high... if you happen to get caught breaking into a car the penalty is a warning. That is the policy. You have to break into many cars and be caught (which is hard to do) many times for any action. Boudin has indefensibly ignored violent criminals, too. Like a woman being assaulted while trying to open the door to here condo, fully on video and there was no prosecution. Even a few cases of murder from repeat offenders who were let go repeatedly after violent assault. If you live in SF, try the Citizen phone app for alerts near you. There is some crazy stuff happening all around the city. Lately, cars keep inexplicably flipping over on city streets. The craziest update I've seen was an alert about man dressed like a clown wielding a sword-cane.
- Talanes 5y ago
  >But that isn't on the police - they don't arrest anyone because the DA doesn't prosecute anyone. This always struck me as a BS excuse, because if you're trying to demonstrate that the DA is the problem, wouldn't you want to be making arrests and creating a paper trail to prove your point? Apathy by the police just makes them look bad to anyone who's on the receiving end of it. And getting arrested is still a deterrent without charges. Hell, even "A cop might begin asking me some questions" is a mild deterrent.
  - dralley 5y ago
    I assume they would feel that sticking their neck out like that would put themselves at personal risk, either literally or figuratively.
    - ViViDboarder 5y ago
      In what way would doing there job put them at risk that they didn’t sign up for with the job itself? You’re not going to convince me to pay you more if you do a shit job. Same issue as with the SF school district.
      - dralley 5y ago
        You're asking them to publicly humiliate an office that is politically incentivized (in SF) to throw them under the bus if they see the opportunity to do so, opportunities which might come along more frequently the more they actually arrest people.
        Talanes 5y ago
        I'm asking them to stop publicly eroding our trust in their ability and willingness to do the job we pay them for.
  - spoonjim 5y ago
    Making an arrest is not risk free for a cop, the career lowlifes who have been arrested dozens of times aren’t afraid of anything (including incarceration), and burnout affects even tech workers, of course it affects cops who want to make arrests to get people in jail, and can’t find the motivation when it’s to “create a paper trail.”
toast0 5y ago
They may also be low because there are no state prisons in SF county, so people with longer terms may be counted in the jurisdiction where they're being held.
- ViViDboarder 5y ago
  This guy stats.
ulfw 5y ago
Obviously the latter. Have you read the rest of the article? "Before covid-19 San Francisco was the car-break-in capital of America; but with fewer tourists, criminals have shifted their attention. Home burglaries are up. Shootings have more than doubled in the past year. Viral videos show daytime heists, with perpetrators sauntering out of stores without consequence. Lax enforcement of drug laws can become fatal when even small amounts can kill."
dcolkitt 5y ago
SF has very high property crime, but fairly low violent crime. Most of the America’s incarceration rate is driven by a small number of prisoners serving long sentences. Usually for violent crime or drug trafficking. An amazing statistics is that if the the US released every prisoner except the murderors and rapsists, we’d still have a higher incarceration rate than the EU. A city full of bike thieves, shoplifters, and public defecators isn’t going to have a high incarceration. Even if the police are vigorous about arrests, those people just don’t spend very long in jail.

Are incarceration rates low because people behave or are they low because SF police don’t bother to arrest people?

by ecf 5y ago

Are incarceration rates low because people behave or are they low because SF police don’t bother to arrest people?

I think that's irrelevant to the point which is that in electing a candidate campaigning on criminal justice reform SFs voters are reacting more to national issues than local ones. SFs criminal justice system is already quite "reformed" and probably the issues that people are seeing aren't primarily in SF

ericd 5y ago

If you look at the property crime rates, it’s certainly not because people behave.

pessimizer 5y ago
It depends - are they 5x worse than cities with an average incarceration rate?
- onos 5y ago
  I think your factor of five is on the “wrong side” of the equation here you’re thinking of. Ie if the crime rate were 5 x that of other cities AND the incarceration rate were 5 x lower, that would mean criminals were 25 x less likely to be prosecuted in SF.

searealist 5y ago

SF's incarceration rates are consistent with its demographics.

lubujackson 5y ago

Low because they don't arrest anyone. But that isn't on the police - they don't arrest anyone because the DA doesn't prosecute anyone. Property crime is sky high... if you happen to get caught breaking into a car the penalty is a warning. That is the policy. You have to break into many cars and be caught (which is hard to do) many times for any action. Boudin has indefensibly ignored violent criminals, too. Like a woman being assaulted while trying to open the door to here condo, fully on video and there was no prosecution. Even a few cases of murder from repeat offenders who were let go repeatedly after violent assault. If you live in SF, try the Citizen phone app for alerts near you. There is some crazy stuff happening all around the city. Lately, cars keep inexplicably flipping over on city streets. The craziest update I've seen was an alert about man dressed like a clown wielding a sword-cane.

Talanes 5y ago
>But that isn't on the police - they don't arrest anyone because the DA doesn't prosecute anyone. This always struck me as a BS excuse, because if you're trying to demonstrate that the DA is the problem, wouldn't you want to be making arrests and creating a paper trail to prove your point? Apathy by the police just makes them look bad to anyone who's on the receiving end of it. And getting arrested is still a deterrent without charges. Hell, even "A cop might begin asking me some questions" is a mild deterrent.
- dralley 5y ago
  I assume they would feel that sticking their neck out like that would put themselves at personal risk, either literally or figuratively.
  - ViViDboarder 5y ago
    In what way would doing there job put them at risk that they didn’t sign up for with the job itself? You’re not going to convince me to pay you more if you do a shit job. Same issue as with the SF school district.
    - dralley 5y ago
      You're asking them to publicly humiliate an office that is politically incentivized (in SF) to throw them under the bus if they see the opportunity to do so, opportunities which might come along more frequently the more they actually arrest people.
      - Talanes 5y ago
        I'm asking them to stop publicly eroding our trust in their ability and willingness to do the job we pay them for.
- spoonjim 5y ago
  Making an arrest is not risk free for a cop, the career lowlifes who have been arrested dozens of times aren’t afraid of anything (including incarceration), and burnout affects even tech workers, of course it affects cops who want to make arrests to get people in jail, and can’t find the motivation when it’s to “create a paper trail.”

toast0 5y ago

They may also be low because there are no state prisons in SF county, so people with longer terms may be counted in the jurisdiction where they're being held.

ViViDboarder 5y ago
This guy stats.

ulfw 5y ago

Obviously the latter. Have you read the rest of the article? "Before covid-19 San Francisco was the car-break-in capital of America; but with fewer tourists, criminals have shifted their attention. Home burglaries are up. Shootings have more than doubled in the past year. Viral videos show daytime heists, with perpetrators sauntering out of stores without consequence. Lax enforcement of drug laws can become fatal when even small amounts can kill."

dcolkitt 5y ago

SF has very high property crime, but fairly low violent crime. Most of the America’s incarceration rate is driven by a small number of prisoners serving long sentences. Usually for violent crime or drug trafficking. An amazing statistics is that if the the US released every prisoner except the murderors and rapsists, we’d still have a higher incarceration rate than the EU. A city full of bike thieves, shoplifters, and public defecators isn’t going to have a high incarceration. Even if the police are vigorous about arrests, those people just don’t spend very long in jail.