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>One City Hall insider suggests that San Francisco overreacts to issues that are in the national news, and designs solutions to the country’s problems rather th

>One City Hall insider suggests that San Francisco overreacts to issues that are in the national news, and designs solutions to the country’s problems rather than its own. For example, when Mr Boudin ran on his platform of less punitive justice, San Francisco already had one of the lowest incarceration rates in the country. In 2019, 106 adults were in prison for every 100,000 people, one-fifth the rate in California and the nation. If the rest of the country behaved like San Francisco, the prison population would decline by 80%, says James Austin of the jfa Institute, a think-tank that evaluates criminal-justice policies. This seems like a very reasonable hypothesis

ecf 5y ago
Are incarceration rates low because people behave or are they low because SF police don’t bother to arrest people?
- space_fountain 5y ago
  I think that's irrelevant to the point which is that in electing a candidate campaigning on criminal justice reform SFs voters are reacting more to national issues than local ones. SFs criminal justice system is already quite "reformed" and probably the issues that people are seeing aren't primarily in SF
- ericd 5y ago
  If you look at the property crime rates, it’s certainly not because people behave.
  - pessimizer 5y ago
    It depends - are they 5x worse than cities with an average incarceration rate?
    - onos 5y ago
      I think your factor of five is on the “wrong side” of the equation here you’re thinking of. Ie if the crime rate were 5 x that of other cities AND the incarceration rate were 5 x lower, that would mean criminals were 25 x less likely to be prosecuted in SF.
- searealist 5y ago
  SF's incarceration rates are consistent with its demographics.
- lubujackson 5y ago
  Low because they don't arrest anyone. But that isn't on the police - they don't arrest anyone because the DA doesn't prosecute anyone. Property crime is sky high... if you happen to get caught breaking into a car the penalty is a warning. That is the policy. You have to break into many cars and be caught (which is hard to do) many times for any action. Boudin has indefensibly ignored violent criminals, too. Like a woman being assaulted while trying to open the door to here condo, fully on video and there was no prosecution. Even a few cases of murder from repeat offenders who were let go repeatedly after violent assault. If you live in SF, try the Citizen phone app for alerts near you. There is some crazy stuff happening all around the city. Lately, cars keep inexplicably flipping over on city streets. The craziest update I've seen was an alert about man dressed like a clown wielding a sword-cane.
  - Talanes 5y ago
    >But that isn't on the police - they don't arrest anyone because the DA doesn't prosecute anyone. This always struck me as a BS excuse, because if you're trying to demonstrate that the DA is the problem, wouldn't you want to be making arrests and creating a paper trail to prove your point? Apathy by the police just makes them look bad to anyone who's on the receiving end of it. And getting arrested is still a deterrent without charges. Hell, even "A cop might begin asking me some questions" is a mild deterrent.
    - dralley 5y ago
      I assume they would feel that sticking their neck out like that would put themselves at personal risk, either literally or figuratively.
      - ViViDboarder 5y ago
        In what way would doing there job put them at risk that they didn’t sign up for with the job itself? You’re not going to convince me to pay you more if you do a shit job. Same issue as with the SF school district.
- toast0 5y ago
  They may also be low because there are no state prisons in SF county, so people with longer terms may be counted in the jurisdiction where they're being held.
  - ViViDboarder 5y ago
    This guy stats.
- ulfw 5y ago
  Obviously the latter. Have you read the rest of the article? "Before covid-19 San Francisco was the car-break-in capital of America; but with fewer tourists, criminals have shifted their attention. Home burglaries are up. Shootings have more than doubled in the past year. Viral videos show daytime heists, with perpetrators sauntering out of stores without consequence. Lax enforcement of drug laws can become fatal when even small amounts can kill."
- dcolkitt 5y ago
  SF has very high property crime, but fairly low violent crime. Most of the America’s incarceration rate is driven by a small number of prisoners serving long sentences. Usually for violent crime or drug trafficking. An amazing statistics is that if the the US released every prisoner except the murderors and rapsists, we’d still have a higher incarceration rate than the EU. A city full of bike thieves, shoplifters, and public defecators isn’t going to have a high incarceration. Even if the police are vigorous about arrests, those people just don’t spend very long in jail.
pyuser583 5y ago
I had exactly the same thought when I lived in SF. They’d adopt policies that would make tons of sense in Alabama.
refurb 5y ago
How do they measure that rate? Most people sentenced to prison aren’t going to serve it in SF.

ecf 5y ago

Are incarceration rates low because people behave or are they low because SF police don’t bother to arrest people?

space_fountain 5y ago
I think that's irrelevant to the point which is that in electing a candidate campaigning on criminal justice reform SFs voters are reacting more to national issues than local ones. SFs criminal justice system is already quite "reformed" and probably the issues that people are seeing aren't primarily in SF
ericd 5y ago
If you look at the property crime rates, it’s certainly not because people behave.
- pessimizer 5y ago
  It depends - are they 5x worse than cities with an average incarceration rate?
  - onos 5y ago
    I think your factor of five is on the “wrong side” of the equation here you’re thinking of. Ie if the crime rate were 5 x that of other cities AND the incarceration rate were 5 x lower, that would mean criminals were 25 x less likely to be prosecuted in SF.
searealist 5y ago
SF's incarceration rates are consistent with its demographics.
lubujackson 5y ago
Low because they don't arrest anyone. But that isn't on the police - they don't arrest anyone because the DA doesn't prosecute anyone. Property crime is sky high... if you happen to get caught breaking into a car the penalty is a warning. That is the policy. You have to break into many cars and be caught (which is hard to do) many times for any action. Boudin has indefensibly ignored violent criminals, too. Like a woman being assaulted while trying to open the door to here condo, fully on video and there was no prosecution. Even a few cases of murder from repeat offenders who were let go repeatedly after violent assault. If you live in SF, try the Citizen phone app for alerts near you. There is some crazy stuff happening all around the city. Lately, cars keep inexplicably flipping over on city streets. The craziest update I've seen was an alert about man dressed like a clown wielding a sword-cane.
- Talanes 5y ago
  >But that isn't on the police - they don't arrest anyone because the DA doesn't prosecute anyone. This always struck me as a BS excuse, because if you're trying to demonstrate that the DA is the problem, wouldn't you want to be making arrests and creating a paper trail to prove your point? Apathy by the police just makes them look bad to anyone who's on the receiving end of it. And getting arrested is still a deterrent without charges. Hell, even "A cop might begin asking me some questions" is a mild deterrent.
  - dralley 5y ago
    I assume they would feel that sticking their neck out like that would put themselves at personal risk, either literally or figuratively.
    - ViViDboarder 5y ago
      In what way would doing there job put them at risk that they didn’t sign up for with the job itself? You’re not going to convince me to pay you more if you do a shit job. Same issue as with the SF school district.
toast0 5y ago
They may also be low because there are no state prisons in SF county, so people with longer terms may be counted in the jurisdiction where they're being held.
- ViViDboarder 5y ago
  This guy stats.
ulfw 5y ago
Obviously the latter. Have you read the rest of the article? "Before covid-19 San Francisco was the car-break-in capital of America; but with fewer tourists, criminals have shifted their attention. Home burglaries are up. Shootings have more than doubled in the past year. Viral videos show daytime heists, with perpetrators sauntering out of stores without consequence. Lax enforcement of drug laws can become fatal when even small amounts can kill."
dcolkitt 5y ago
SF has very high property crime, but fairly low violent crime. Most of the America’s incarceration rate is driven by a small number of prisoners serving long sentences. Usually for violent crime or drug trafficking. An amazing statistics is that if the the US released every prisoner except the murderors and rapsists, we’d still have a higher incarceration rate than the EU. A city full of bike thieves, shoplifters, and public defecators isn’t going to have a high incarceration. Even if the police are vigorous about arrests, those people just don’t spend very long in jail.

pyuser583 5y ago

I had exactly the same thought when I lived in SF. They’d adopt policies that would make tons of sense in Alabama.

refurb 5y ago

How do they measure that rate? Most people sentenced to prison aren’t going to serve it in SF.