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Holding beats timing in nearly all investable asset classes. If it's not FOMO, then what's stopping people in these risk-averse demographics from investing in b

Holding beats timing in nearly all investable asset classes. If it's not FOMO, then what's stopping people in these risk-averse demographics from investing in bonds instead? Or some other asset with low volatility and positive expected returns?

SubiculumCode 5y ago
Example how you can be wrong: Holding beats timing unless you only have 1 year left to live.
hogFeast 5y ago
What timing? There are plenty of market timing strategies that will beat holding (the market is more volatile than underlying values so this is a natural certainty)...but it depends what you mean by timing. Most of the conventional things that people understand about holding are wrong though...unsurprisingly, given that most of these conventions are produced by people trying to sell you something (I know this, because I worked in financial services, and used some of these conventions to sell things...it makes sense because individuals are stupid enough to do themselves real harm by trying to be clever...but this does not mean that being clever doesn't work, it just means you are stupid).
- lottin 5y ago
  > the market is more volatile than underlying values so this is a natural certainty What do you mean?
  - hogFeast 5y ago
    There is always going to be some timing strategy which beats holding. If we flip this and imagine that everyone knew with certainty what the underlying values (earnings, dividends, etc.) should be then the return on stocks would always just be the return on the underlying values (it is a bit more complex than this, in reality the cost of capital differs between individuals so you are always going to get volatility...but the point is that because people are trade their portfolios faster than fundamentals change, then there is always going to be a timing strategy that works...that is how HFTs make money most days over decades).
    - lottin 5y ago
      Thanks, I definitely don't understand the argument.

SubiculumCode 5y ago

Example how you can be wrong: Holding beats timing unless you only have 1 year left to live.

hogFeast 5y ago

What timing? There are plenty of market timing strategies that will beat holding (the market is more volatile than underlying values so this is a natural certainty)...but it depends what you mean by timing. Most of the conventional things that people understand about holding are wrong though...unsurprisingly, given that most of these conventions are produced by people trying to sell you something (I know this, because I worked in financial services, and used some of these conventions to sell things...it makes sense because individuals are stupid enough to do themselves real harm by trying to be clever...but this does not mean that being clever doesn't work, it just means you are stupid).

lottin 5y ago
> the market is more volatile than underlying values so this is a natural certainty What do you mean?
- hogFeast 5y ago
  There is always going to be some timing strategy which beats holding. If we flip this and imagine that everyone knew with certainty what the underlying values (earnings, dividends, etc.) should be then the return on stocks would always just be the return on the underlying values (it is a bit more complex than this, in reality the cost of capital differs between individuals so you are always going to get volatility...but the point is that because people are trade their portfolios faster than fundamentals change, then there is always going to be a timing strategy that works...that is how HFTs make money most days over decades).
  - lottin 5y ago
    Thanks, I definitely don't understand the argument.