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Consider how quickly Afghanistan fell to the Taliban. Now consider that Afghanistan is like 10x larger than Taiwan, much less geographically diverse, and only

Consider how quickly Afghanistan fell to the Taliban. Now consider that Afghanistan is like 10x larger than Taiwan, much less geographically diverse, and only like 100mi from the coast of China. It's totally possible that Taiwan could fall in a day to an overwhelming force.

Apocryphon 5y ago
Completely different geography and logistics.
kelnos 5y ago
These two things are not even remotely comparable.
evilos 5y ago
Afghanistan is about as irrelevant of an example as I could think of in this case. I struggle to think of ways in which it is even remotely related. War is about supply chains. Even if (big if) you managed to land several tens of thousands of Chinese regulars onto a Taiwanese beach, they are toast if you cannot resupply them. To establish these supply lines you would have to basically eliminate all enemy submarines, surface fleet, aircraft, and nearby airbases. It is a near impossible task. If the Chinese managed to do this, it would easily be the greatest military achievement in human history. It would make D-Day look like amateur hour.
- mywittyname 5y ago
  This won't be a war. This will be a military showing up and declaring, "this territory is ours" when the established government leadership flees. This is effectively what the Taliban did. But since you struggle with that example, how about looking at Russia's take over of Crimea in 2014? My prediction is, there will be widespread protests in Taiwan, which Chinese sleeper agents will attempt to turn violent. Then Chinese commandos storm the presidential building taking Tsai Ing-wen and her cabinet hostage, the military will be ordered to stand down. Then the subsequent riots will be crushed.
  - evilos 5y ago
    You're saying Taiwan will essentially give up without a fight, which is laughable. If you think the Taiwanese and the Afghans were in similar situations, you clearly have no idea what you are talking about. If Taiwan were just a land border neighbor to China, you might have a point. But that 100 miles of water is literally the main factor that has kept Taiwan independent since the Chinese civil war. To ignore that is downright idiotic. It is called GEO-politics for a reason. Human history is mostly shaped by geography.

Apocryphon 5y ago

Completely different geography and logistics.

kelnos 5y ago

These two things are not even remotely comparable.

evilos 5y ago

Afghanistan is about as irrelevant of an example as I could think of in this case. I struggle to think of ways in which it is even remotely related. War is about supply chains. Even if (big if) you managed to land several tens of thousands of Chinese regulars onto a Taiwanese beach, they are toast if you cannot resupply them. To establish these supply lines you would have to basically eliminate all enemy submarines, surface fleet, aircraft, and nearby airbases. It is a near impossible task. If the Chinese managed to do this, it would easily be the greatest military achievement in human history. It would make D-Day look like amateur hour.

mywittyname 5y ago
This won't be a war. This will be a military showing up and declaring, "this territory is ours" when the established government leadership flees. This is effectively what the Taliban did. But since you struggle with that example, how about looking at Russia's take over of Crimea in 2014? My prediction is, there will be widespread protests in Taiwan, which Chinese sleeper agents will attempt to turn violent. Then Chinese commandos storm the presidential building taking Tsai Ing-wen and her cabinet hostage, the military will be ordered to stand down. Then the subsequent riots will be crushed.
- evilos 5y ago
  You're saying Taiwan will essentially give up without a fight, which is laughable. If you think the Taiwanese and the Afghans were in similar situations, you clearly have no idea what you are talking about. If Taiwan were just a land border neighbor to China, you might have a point. But that 100 miles of water is literally the main factor that has kept Taiwan independent since the Chinese civil war. To ignore that is downright idiotic. It is called GEO-politics for a reason. Human history is mostly shaped by geography.