4 ms·

I wasn't posting about the winability of a US/China war, but the likelihood of a surprise invasion. If the fighting's already started, it's not a surprise. [ED

I wasn't posting about the winability of a US/China war, but the likelihood of a surprise invasion. If the fighting's already started, it's not a surprise. [EDIT] that is, I don't think you can hide a build-up for a surprise invasion of Taiwan given modern surveillance, and fairly free travel to/from China, with no existing state of war. I think any actions likely to improve China's ability to hide invasion prep, would also make it very clear what they're doing and kick things off even earlier, so, still no surprise invasion.

mullingitover 5y ago
That's a reasonable assessment. If military confrontations kick off, it's probably going to be at the tail end of a lot of buildup probably including diplomatic breakdown, major economic sanctions on both sides, etc. I would wager that before China invades they would've already cut the US off from any supplies that might help in a conflict, and vice versa, for example.
ratsforhorses 5y ago
How about diverting war games....