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> 2) the US would begin moving forces toward and to Taiwan within hours, if that happened—it's pointless, because they'd have already tipped their hand. It woul
by mullingitover 5y ago
> 2) the US would begin moving forces toward and to Taiwan within hours, if that happened—it's pointless, because they'd have already tipped their hand. It would confer no advantage for preparing a surprise invasion.
Those troops would either have to arrive on planes or in boats, and in either case they'd be heading toward an absolute hornets nest of missiles.
The most likely thing if things pop off in the western Pacific is the US fleets immediately turn tail and sail east as fast as they can to avoid ending up on the bottom of the ocean. The fleets haven't faced a modern opponent with a full armament of advanced anti-ship missiles.
The only realistic scenario where the US 'wins' in a major confrontation with China is to use nuclear weapons first, and we would still take many hits to our own cities in the process. There's no scenario where millions of Americans don't die in that war.
- handrous 5y agoI wasn't posting about the winability of a US/China war, but the likelihood of a surprise invasion. If the fighting's already started, it's not a surprise. [EDIT] that is, I don't think you can hide a build-up for a surprise invasion of Taiwan given modern surveillance, and fairly free travel to/from China, with no existing state of war. I think any actions likely to improve China's ability to hide invasion prep, would also make it very clear what they're doing and kick things off even earlier, so, still no surprise invasion.
- mullingitover 5y agoThat's a reasonable assessment. If military confrontations kick off, it's probably going to be at the tail end of a lot of buildup probably including diplomatic breakdown, major economic sanctions on both sides, etc. I would wager that before China invades they would've already cut the US off from any supplies that might help in a conflict, and vice versa, for example.
- ratsforhorses 5y agoHow about diverting war games....