4 ms·

Spy satellites didn't exist during WWII, for one thing (spy planes, sure, and I know elaborate ruses were made for that exact reason, but satellites are a diffe

Spy satellites didn't exist during WWII, for one thing (spy planes, sure, and I know elaborate ruses were made for that exact reason, but satellites are a different beast). For another, the Allies gained significant air superiority well in advance, over the channel and over northern France, for it to happen. Also, the German surface fleet was already mostly toast or otherwise neutralized, and even their submarines couldn't really operate in the channel with much success (see again: air superiority). Further, Germany couldn't focus only on repelling a naval invasion in one small area—they were fighting the Allies on the Italian front already, and supporting a huge front in Russia, and had to garrison large regions of Northern Europe against possible air or naval invasion (I mean, the Allies had already tried that once in Market Garden, so it was a real possibility), not to mention to suppress occupied territories. Plus, we're not at war and have relatively free travel. That, plus modern tech, makes spying much easier. Even if the satellites didn't spot it, a person would. We're talking about a lot of equipment, ships, and people moving around. I would agree that the pace of war has accelerated such that some of those steps might take hours rather than months to years, but I still think the build-up would be nearly impossible to hide. You need a lot of equipment to land a force and then supply & reinforce them such that they don't become sitting ducks, and it has to be nearby from the beginning. "But they could destroy the satellites, at least". OK sure, but 1) they better get them all, and 2) the US would begin moving forces toward and to Taiwan within hours, if that happened—it's pointless, because they'd have already tipped their hand. It would confer no advantage for preparing a surprise invasion.

mullingitover 5y ago
> 2) the US would begin moving forces toward and to Taiwan within hours, if that happened—it's pointless, because they'd have already tipped their hand. It would confer no advantage for preparing a surprise invasion. Those troops would either have to arrive on planes or in boats, and in either case they'd be heading toward an absolute hornets nest of missiles. The most likely thing if things pop off in the western Pacific is the US fleets immediately turn tail and sail east as fast as they can to avoid ending up on the bottom of the ocean. The fleets haven't faced a modern opponent with a full armament of advanced anti-ship missiles. The only realistic scenario where the US 'wins' in a major confrontation with China is to use nuclear weapons first, and we would still take many hits to our own cities in the process. There's no scenario where millions of Americans don't die in that war.
- handrous 5y ago
  I wasn't posting about the winability of a US/China war, but the likelihood of a surprise invasion. If the fighting's already started, it's not a surprise. [EDIT] that is, I don't think you can hide a build-up for a surprise invasion of Taiwan given modern surveillance, and fairly free travel to/from China, with no existing state of war. I think any actions likely to improve China's ability to hide invasion prep, would also make it very clear what they're doing and kick things off even earlier, so, still no surprise invasion.
  - mullingitover 5y ago
    That's a reasonable assessment. If military confrontations kick off, it's probably going to be at the tail end of a lot of buildup probably including diplomatic breakdown, major economic sanctions on both sides, etc. I would wager that before China invades they would've already cut the US off from any supplies that might help in a conflict, and vice versa, for example.
  - ratsforhorses 5y ago
    How about diverting war games....
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

mullingitover 5y ago

> 2) the US would begin moving forces toward and to Taiwan within hours, if that happened—it's pointless, because they'd have already tipped their hand. It would confer no advantage for preparing a surprise invasion. Those troops would either have to arrive on planes or in boats, and in either case they'd be heading toward an absolute hornets nest of missiles. The most likely thing if things pop off in the western Pacific is the US fleets immediately turn tail and sail east as fast as they can to avoid ending up on the bottom of the ocean. The fleets haven't faced a modern opponent with a full armament of advanced anti-ship missiles. The only realistic scenario where the US 'wins' in a major confrontation with China is to use nuclear weapons first, and we would still take many hits to our own cities in the process. There's no scenario where millions of Americans don't die in that war.

handrous 5y ago
I wasn't posting about the winability of a US/China war, but the likelihood of a surprise invasion. If the fighting's already started, it's not a surprise. [EDIT] that is, I don't think you can hide a build-up for a surprise invasion of Taiwan given modern surveillance, and fairly free travel to/from China, with no existing state of war. I think any actions likely to improve China's ability to hide invasion prep, would also make it very clear what they're doing and kick things off even earlier, so, still no surprise invasion.
- mullingitover 5y ago
  That's a reasonable assessment. If military confrontations kick off, it's probably going to be at the tail end of a lot of buildup probably including diplomatic breakdown, major economic sanctions on both sides, etc. I would wager that before China invades they would've already cut the US off from any supplies that might help in a conflict, and vice versa, for example.
- ratsforhorses 5y ago
  How about diverting war games....

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]