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Yeah it is potentially a really bad situation right now in Louisiana. We have been getting our vax numbers up recently and the hospitalizations have started to

by cmpb 5y ago

Yeah it is potentially a really bad situation right now in Louisiana. We have been getting our vax numbers up recently and the hospitalizations have started to come down in the past week or so, but not by much. With catastrophic hurricanes, though, what I've noticed is that we have lots of refugees (and deaths, in the case of Katrina) compared to hospitalizations. New Orleans can also turn the large arena areas (e.g. Superdome, Zephyr Field) into mass casualty and refugee areas immediately following the storm, which should help with keeping the hospitals from getting overrun.

dredmorbius 5y ago
The problem with refugees is crowding, displacement, lack of resources, and lack of communications. These tend to exacerbate any extant public health situations. Given general incompetence concerning Covid in the Southern US generally, I've certain concerns. What was seen in 2020 was a winter wave which kicked off with Sturgis in South Dakota, then radiated outwards, toward the coasts and south, over the course of the winter, peaking around 10 Januare 2021. I've speculated that mass events, travel, return to school, and greater indoor activity (heating season in the north, as opposed to cooling season in the south) also contributed. This year the US might se a dual hotspot originating in Sturgis and Louisiana, both radiating outward. Something to keep tabs on.
- jdminhbg 5y ago
  > What was seen in 2020 was a winter wave which kicked off with Sturgis in South Dakota Is there any actual evidence for this?
  - dragontamer 5y ago
    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6947e1.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6947e1.htm Contact tracing + whole genomic sequencing proves that these infections in Minnesota came from the Rally, despite those individuals never attending the rally. Those individuals then passed COVID19 to others in Minnesota. Etc. etc.
    - jdminhbg 5y ago
      That's a pretty far cry from "the winter wave started at Sturgis." > Following a 10-day motorcycle rally in South Dakota attended by approximately 460,000 persons, 51 confirmed primary event-associated cases, 21 secondary cases, and five tertiary cases were identified in Minnesota residents. That's a drop in the bucket compared to the community spread in the US in 2020. I'm not saying Sturgis was a great idea, but I am saying that the winter wave would have happened regardless.
      - dredmorbius 5y ago
        I was going to make a similar comment, after having drawn the association above. What the study does show is that the Sturgis variant was epidemiologically detectable throughout Minnesota following the rally. Note that the total number of samples was drawn from identified interviewed patients only, though this appears to have covered all reported cases in MN during the period (August 1 -- August 31, 2021). My understanding is that the survey was as comprehensive as could be achieved, and not a limited sampling. During the same period, the 7-day average new-daily-case rate in Minnesota was 699--795 (rising slightly over the course of the month, observed from Worldometers). The Sturgis-linked cases were 0.4% or less of total confirmed cases. (I'm assuming the CDC tracing was comprehensive, the paper is less than clear on this, though that appears to be the case.) We could make numerous arguments that the study was flawed, missed cases, was incomplete, etc. All of that would be an argumment from ignorance. And though I feel there's some case to be made for suggesting the CDC undercounted, that leaves us with a weak basis for any further conclusions. Sometimes, though, in epidemiology, that's the best that can be done, and the precautionary principle kicks in: what course of action would provide the maximum benefit and least harm. Minnesota's Winter Wave really started spiking in October of 2020. It peaked on 20 November at 7,023 NDC (7-day average). Whether or not those cases are linked to Sturgis would require sequencing of a sample and drawing inferences. That said ... ... other evidence comes from looking at the spread of Covid-19 hot-spots throughout the US from August -- January of 2020--2021. And that did show the radiating pattern I described. I'm not certain it's associated with Sturgis, but it very much walks like a duck.
      - dragontamer 5y ago
- selimthegrim 5y ago
  Orleans Parish itself has been tough on COVID. I feel like you're belling the wrong cat here.
  - dredmorbius 5y ago
    Louisiana as a whole has not. And however good Orleans Parish has been, that efficacy is likely to get a whole lot worse come Sunday.
    - genewitch 5y ago
      I don't remember there being huge surges after Laura and whatever the one in october was, in 2020. I might be misremembering, but the primary issue was the incredible heat, and lack of water, radio, power, ice, food, etc. In the coastal regions they suffered for weeks - we only had a rough go of it for 3 days where i'm at, and it hit us Cat 3, plus tornadoes.
      - dredmorbius 5y ago
        Clearly it's a case of "we'll have to see". That said: - There's a clear risk. - Taking measures against the risk would be highly advisable. - Monitoring the aftereffects, over several months at least, is going to be necessary to draw conclusions. I'd also like to see a compilation of Covid (or other epidemics) and the interrelationship with other widespread disasters or disturbances. The situation in Afghanistan would be one such case, where there's a sudden breakdown of what limited order did previously exist. Wildfire evacuations in the Pacific Northwest of the US & Canada would be another. There's the long slow emergency of homelessness in California (about 100,000 individuals on any given day, not sure how many are long-term or not).

by cmpb 5y ago

dredmorbius 5y ago

The problem with refugees is crowding, displacement, lack of resources, and lack of communications. These tend to exacerbate any extant public health situations. Given general incompetence concerning Covid in the Southern US generally, I've certain concerns. What was seen in 2020 was a winter wave which kicked off with Sturgis in South Dakota, then radiated outwards, toward the coasts and south, over the course of the winter, peaking around 10 Januare 2021. I've speculated that mass events, travel, return to school, and greater indoor activity (heating season in the north, as opposed to cooling season in the south) also contributed. This year the US might se a dual hotspot originating in Sturgis and Louisiana, both radiating outward. Something to keep tabs on.

jdminhbg 5y ago
> What was seen in 2020 was a winter wave which kicked off with Sturgis in South Dakota Is there any actual evidence for this?
- dragontamer 5y ago
  https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6947e1.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6947e1.htm Contact tracing + whole genomic sequencing proves that these infections in Minnesota came from the Rally, despite those individuals never attending the rally. Those individuals then passed COVID19 to others in Minnesota. Etc. etc.
  - jdminhbg 5y ago
    That's a pretty far cry from "the winter wave started at Sturgis." > Following a 10-day motorcycle rally in South Dakota attended by approximately 460,000 persons, 51 confirmed primary event-associated cases, 21 secondary cases, and five tertiary cases were identified in Minnesota residents. That's a drop in the bucket compared to the community spread in the US in 2020. I'm not saying Sturgis was a great idea, but I am saying that the winter wave would have happened regardless.
    - dredmorbius 5y ago
      I was going to make a similar comment, after having drawn the association above. What the study does show is that the Sturgis variant was epidemiologically detectable throughout Minnesota following the rally. Note that the total number of samples was drawn from identified interviewed patients only, though this appears to have covered all reported cases in MN during the period (August 1 -- August 31, 2021). My understanding is that the survey was as comprehensive as could be achieved, and not a limited sampling. During the same period, the 7-day average new-daily-case rate in Minnesota was 699--795 (rising slightly over the course of the month, observed from Worldometers). The Sturgis-linked cases were 0.4% or less of total confirmed cases. (I'm assuming the CDC tracing was comprehensive, the paper is less than clear on this, though that appears to be the case.) We could make numerous arguments that the study was flawed, missed cases, was incomplete, etc. All of that would be an argumment from ignorance. And though I feel there's some case to be made for suggesting the CDC undercounted, that leaves us with a weak basis for any further conclusions. Sometimes, though, in epidemiology, that's the best that can be done, and the precautionary principle kicks in: what course of action would provide the maximum benefit and least harm. Minnesota's Winter Wave really started spiking in October of 2020. It peaked on 20 November at 7,023 NDC (7-day average). Whether or not those cases are linked to Sturgis would require sequencing of a sample and drawing inferences. That said ... ... other evidence comes from looking at the spread of Covid-19 hot-spots throughout the US from August -- January of 2020--2021. And that did show the radiating pattern I described. I'm not certain it's associated with Sturgis, but it very much walks like a duck.
    - dragontamer 5y ago
selimthegrim 5y ago
Orleans Parish itself has been tough on COVID. I feel like you're belling the wrong cat here.
- dredmorbius 5y ago
  Louisiana as a whole has not. And however good Orleans Parish has been, that efficacy is likely to get a whole lot worse come Sunday.
  - genewitch 5y ago
    I don't remember there being huge surges after Laura and whatever the one in october was, in 2020. I might be misremembering, but the primary issue was the incredible heat, and lack of water, radio, power, ice, food, etc. In the coastal regions they suffered for weeks - we only had a rough go of it for 3 days where i'm at, and it hit us Cat 3, plus tornadoes.
    - dredmorbius 5y ago
      Clearly it's a case of "we'll have to see". That said: - There's a clear risk. - Taking measures against the risk would be highly advisable. - Monitoring the aftereffects, over several months at least, is going to be necessary to draw conclusions. I'd also like to see a compilation of Covid (or other epidemics) and the interrelationship with other widespread disasters or disturbances. The situation in Afghanistan would be one such case, where there's a sudden breakdown of what limited order did previously exist. Wildfire evacuations in the Pacific Northwest of the US & Canada would be another. There's the long slow emergency of homelessness in California (about 100,000 individuals on any given day, not sure how many are long-term or not).