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US PR campaign against PRC finally digging itself into a corner. Wonder if polling will change post Afghanistan withdrawal shenanigans. Essentially all of PLA

US PR campaign against PRC finally digging itself into a corner. Wonder if polling will change post Afghanistan withdrawal shenanigans. Essentially all of PLA modernization is designed to mitigate US intervention in TW scenarios, especially near PRC shores. Current planning on both sides largely dismiss the possibility of US being able to defend TW on island proper or within the 1st island chain where force balance does not favor the US. The workable strategy is to blockade PRC at SLOC choke points and push confrontation to the 2nd island where PRC has relatively weaker projection capabilities. But even that advantage will diminish each year, especially until the 2030s where the USN procurement timeline is about to get very depressing. The TLDR is the US can still contain PRC, but the US cannot defend TW anymore. Hence strategic ambiguity / lack of security guarantee, because bluntly PRC has too much capability now for the US to make impossible promises. Recent shifts in policy / think tanks / blob circles outside the most fervent China Hawks are pushing the “porcupine” model where the US provides TW arms but does not commit explicitly to defense. Now US has riled up it's own domestic sentiment against PRC sufficiently that domestic politics could influence unwanted confrontations in PRC's favor. It's a recipe for potential disaster and embarrassment that could further undermine US interests / hegemony. If US had to intervene, PRC would like nothing more than a near shore slog with US where she is strongest. Keep in mind PRC fought a nuclear US and USSR when she wasn't a nuclear power over sovereignty issues much less significant than TW.

JumpCrisscross 5y ago
> planning on both sides largely dismiss the possibility of US being able to defend TW First I'm hearing of this. Occupying Taiwan would require massive Chinese troop transport. That, and every re-supply, are naval and aerial projects the U.S. is capable of making super, super costly in terms of materiel.
- dirtyid 5y ago
  PRC doesn't need to occupy TW to destroy it and demonstrate US security commitments are hollow. TW is an island 5% the size of Yemen off the coast of the PRC military umbrella. Mainland rocket and air forces can glass TW with impunity with assets on the mainland and the US likely wouldn't do shit because hitting PRC territory opens up US CONUS soil as well. Not to mention PRC nuclear forces are entangled with conventional forces, there's no way to hit Chinese assets without risking nuclear escalation, by design. PRC invading TW with an unprecedented amphib campaign is based on PRC capabilities from before the 90s. Before PLA modernization where Chinese military was weak by even WW2 standards. Times have changed, US blob is finally recognizing the PRC is looking at Desert Storm, not Normandy. Think blockades, and other forms of coercion short of direct invasion. PLA amphib acquisitions in the past 10 years have shown very little investment in sealift capabilities. Almost all resources dedicated to countering USN in blue water theatres. If an invasion were to happen, the island's defenses would already have been crushedand the PLA would be using civilian assets which are built to military standards.
  - metabagel 5y ago
    China has no interest in destroying Taiwan.
    - JumpCrisscross 5y ago
      > China has no interest in destroying Taiwan China doesn't. But Xi might. I agree that the U.S. has no way of defending Taiwan against Beijing deciding to obliterate it. But short of Xi needing to pull a Falklands, that is unlikely. If China moves on Taiwan, it would be to control the territory and--most likely--its people.
      - Apocryphon 5y ago
        Xi is an authoritarian, but he isn't a totalitarian. If he does anything to insane, like flatten a country of 24 million people and the 20th largest economy by GDP by PPP, he would get removed. This isn't some comic book movie where there are insane supervillains willing to commit wanton total destruction.
        philliphaydon 5y ago
        Mao wasn't removed for killing millions of people, what makes you think Xi would be removed?
    - kelnos 5y ago
      Right, and this is the thing I find frustrating about conversations like this. Could China completely destroy Taiwan without the US or anyone else being able to do anything about it? Sure, of course. But the odds of that being their goal, or even a backed-into-the-corner endgame are so low it's not even worth considering. China wants to govern Taiwan and its people. They certainly want to directly own Taiwan's economy. They can't do any of that if they burn it to the ground. And if they did commit an atrocity like that, they'd be signing their own death warrants on the global political stage. While I do believe China could successfully invade and occupy Taiwan, it would be incredibly bloody and costly to do so, and I don't think they're quite to the point where they want to take that leap.

JumpCrisscross 5y ago

> planning on both sides largely dismiss the possibility of US being able to defend TW First I'm hearing of this. Occupying Taiwan would require massive Chinese troop transport. That, and every re-supply, are naval and aerial projects the U.S. is capable of making super, super costly in terms of materiel.

dirtyid 5y ago
PRC doesn't need to occupy TW to destroy it and demonstrate US security commitments are hollow. TW is an island 5% the size of Yemen off the coast of the PRC military umbrella. Mainland rocket and air forces can glass TW with impunity with assets on the mainland and the US likely wouldn't do shit because hitting PRC territory opens up US CONUS soil as well. Not to mention PRC nuclear forces are entangled with conventional forces, there's no way to hit Chinese assets without risking nuclear escalation, by design. PRC invading TW with an unprecedented amphib campaign is based on PRC capabilities from before the 90s. Before PLA modernization where Chinese military was weak by even WW2 standards. Times have changed, US blob is finally recognizing the PRC is looking at Desert Storm, not Normandy. Think blockades, and other forms of coercion short of direct invasion. PLA amphib acquisitions in the past 10 years have shown very little investment in sealift capabilities. Almost all resources dedicated to countering USN in blue water theatres. If an invasion were to happen, the island's defenses would already have been crushedand the PLA would be using civilian assets which are built to military standards.
- metabagel 5y ago
  China has no interest in destroying Taiwan.
  - JumpCrisscross 5y ago
    > China has no interest in destroying Taiwan China doesn't. But Xi might. I agree that the U.S. has no way of defending Taiwan against Beijing deciding to obliterate it. But short of Xi needing to pull a Falklands, that is unlikely. If China moves on Taiwan, it would be to control the territory and--most likely--its people.
    - Apocryphon 5y ago
      Xi is an authoritarian, but he isn't a totalitarian. If he does anything to insane, like flatten a country of 24 million people and the 20th largest economy by GDP by PPP, he would get removed. This isn't some comic book movie where there are insane supervillains willing to commit wanton total destruction.
      - philliphaydon 5y ago
        Mao wasn't removed for killing millions of people, what makes you think Xi would be removed?
  - kelnos 5y ago
    Right, and this is the thing I find frustrating about conversations like this. Could China completely destroy Taiwan without the US or anyone else being able to do anything about it? Sure, of course. But the odds of that being their goal, or even a backed-into-the-corner endgame are so low it's not even worth considering. China wants to govern Taiwan and its people. They certainly want to directly own Taiwan's economy. They can't do any of that if they burn it to the ground. And if they did commit an atrocity like that, they'd be signing their own death warrants on the global political stage. While I do believe China could successfully invade and occupy Taiwan, it would be incredibly bloody and costly to do so, and I don't think they're quite to the point where they want to take that leap.