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> know that we'd get our shit absolutely rocked in a war with China over Taiwan This is at best debatable, it’s definitely not a forgone conclusion. A war for

> know that we'd get our shit absolutely rocked in a war with China over Taiwan This is at best debatable, it’s definitely not a forgone conclusion. A war for Taiwan would be a largely naval and aerial confrontation, and the US holds an incredibly significant qualitative lead in those two areas.

aksss 5y ago
If you believe the military on this, and I’m not saying you necessarily should, none of the war games paint a good picture for our success in Taiwan. There are many reasons for that - response time being a big one. China could physically occupy the territory rapidly before we could show up to present a serious defense. Then you’re not repelling them from the island but rooting them out. Next to their logistical home base. With significant trade interruption. It’s not a sparsely populated Falkland Island scenario. So given that the military says it would suck, I’m would not agree that it’s at best debatable. A good outcome is doubtful to start with based on war game exercises to test out this specific subject. It’s an upward fight to get it into “debatable” territory, though I’d be interested in hearing more about your reasoning.
- evilos 5y ago
  I've seen material saying the opposite. The buildup necessary to properly invade Taiwan would take several weeks at least, and would be impossible to hide. Taiwan would be as ready as they could be for an amphibious invasion. Amphibious invasions are incredibly hard to pull off, and rely heavily on the element of surprise.
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    Given that we have a pretty good example of such an invasion in living memory I'd say it is doable, and China would be in a pretty good position to attempt this compared to that other example where the attacking force had to go against a heavily fortified position.
    - lostlogin 5y ago
      > the attacking force had to go against a heavily fortified position. It mostly wasn’t. The Atlantic wall was mainly a fevered Hitler dream. Parts were impressive and incredibly strong. However even strong parts were mostly taken in a few hours. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_Wall https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_Wall
      - jacquesm 5y ago
        At a tremendous cost in lives.
        lostlogin 5y ago
        It was devastating, but was less than the Allies estimated before launching. The actual deaths on the day were less than it was feared the airborne alone would suffer, and utterly dwarfed by those from the battle of Normandy as a whole. A lot of the problems were also not universal to the landings, with Omaha and Juno taking far more casualties than the other 3 beaches combined. https://edition.cnn.com/2014/06/05/opinion/lauder-eisenhower-d-day-anguish/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2014/06/05/opinion/lauder-eisenhower...
        jacquesm 5y ago
        I've visited the war graves there on multiple occasions helping people to locate graves of family members. The numbers are astounding, and the battles went on for far longer than just that first day. But on that first day alone the casualties are well into the thousands. So on D-day it was less than predicted, but once the beachhead was established it was far from over. The total number of dead is in excess of 200,000 on the allied side alone in the battle of Normandy. I highly doubt that retaking Taiwan after a successful invasion would be something that the general public would have the stomach for, I also highly doubt that putting the required number of troops to defend Taiwan in harms way if it came to that would be an option. On the Chinese side there would not be any question about whether or not public opinion would be behind such a move.
  - mywittyname 5y ago
    Consider how quickly Afghanistan fell to the Taliban. Now consider that Afghanistan is like 10x larger than Taiwan, much less geographically diverse, and only like 100mi from the coast of China. It's totally possible that Taiwan could fall in a day to an overwhelming force.
    - Apocryphon 5y ago
      Completely different geography and logistics.
    - kelnos 5y ago
      These two things are not even remotely comparable.
    - evilos 5y ago
      Afghanistan is about as irrelevant of an example as I could think of in this case. I struggle to think of ways in which it is even remotely related. War is about supply chains. Even if (big if) you managed to land several tens of thousands of Chinese regulars onto a Taiwanese beach, they are toast if you cannot resupply them. To establish these supply lines you would have to basically eliminate all enemy submarines, surface fleet, aircraft, and nearby airbases. It is a near impossible task. If the Chinese managed to do this, it would easily be the greatest military achievement in human history. It would make D-Day look like amateur hour.
      - mywittyname 5y ago
        This won't be a war. This will be a military showing up and declaring, "this territory is ours" when the established government leadership flees. This is effectively what the Taliban did. But since you struggle with that example, how about looking at Russia's take over of Crimea in 2014? My prediction is, there will be widespread protests in Taiwan, which Chinese sleeper agents will attempt to turn violent. Then Chinese commandos storm the presidential building taking Tsai Ing-wen and her cabinet hostage, the military will be ordered to stand down. Then the subsequent riots will be crushed.
AYBABTME 5y ago
I'm not expressing any position here but it should be noted that the strait between Taiwan and China's mainland is not that wide and any navy would be hard pressed to defend itself against land based anti-ship missiles. It's just very asymmetrical.
- yann2 5y ago
  The plan is to use Dragons after eggs were found in Henan.

aksss 5y ago

If you believe the military on this, and I’m not saying you necessarily should, none of the war games paint a good picture for our success in Taiwan. There are many reasons for that - response time being a big one. China could physically occupy the territory rapidly before we could show up to present a serious defense. Then you’re not repelling them from the island but rooting them out. Next to their logistical home base. With significant trade interruption. It’s not a sparsely populated Falkland Island scenario. So given that the military says it would suck, I’m would not agree that it’s at best debatable. A good outcome is doubtful to start with based on war game exercises to test out this specific subject. It’s an upward fight to get it into “debatable” territory, though I’d be interested in hearing more about your reasoning.

evilos 5y ago
I've seen material saying the opposite. The buildup necessary to properly invade Taiwan would take several weeks at least, and would be impossible to hide. Taiwan would be as ready as they could be for an amphibious invasion. Amphibious invasions are incredibly hard to pull off, and rely heavily on the element of surprise.
- jacquesm 5y ago
  Given that we have a pretty good example of such an invasion in living memory I'd say it is doable, and China would be in a pretty good position to attempt this compared to that other example where the attacking force had to go against a heavily fortified position.
  - lostlogin 5y ago
    > the attacking force had to go against a heavily fortified position. It mostly wasn’t. The Atlantic wall was mainly a fevered Hitler dream. Parts were impressive and incredibly strong. However even strong parts were mostly taken in a few hours. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_Wall https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_Wall
    - jacquesm 5y ago
      At a tremendous cost in lives.
      - lostlogin 5y ago
        It was devastating, but was less than the Allies estimated before launching. The actual deaths on the day were less than it was feared the airborne alone would suffer, and utterly dwarfed by those from the battle of Normandy as a whole. A lot of the problems were also not universal to the landings, with Omaha and Juno taking far more casualties than the other 3 beaches combined. https://edition.cnn.com/2014/06/05/opinion/lauder-eisenhower-d-day-anguish/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2014/06/05/opinion/lauder-eisenhower...
        jacquesm 5y ago
        I've visited the war graves there on multiple occasions helping people to locate graves of family members. The numbers are astounding, and the battles went on for far longer than just that first day. But on that first day alone the casualties are well into the thousands. So on D-day it was less than predicted, but once the beachhead was established it was far from over. The total number of dead is in excess of 200,000 on the allied side alone in the battle of Normandy. I highly doubt that retaking Taiwan after a successful invasion would be something that the general public would have the stomach for, I also highly doubt that putting the required number of troops to defend Taiwan in harms way if it came to that would be an option. On the Chinese side there would not be any question about whether or not public opinion would be behind such a move.
- mywittyname 5y ago
  Consider how quickly Afghanistan fell to the Taliban. Now consider that Afghanistan is like 10x larger than Taiwan, much less geographically diverse, and only like 100mi from the coast of China. It's totally possible that Taiwan could fall in a day to an overwhelming force.
  - Apocryphon 5y ago
    Completely different geography and logistics.
  - kelnos 5y ago
    These two things are not even remotely comparable.
  - evilos 5y ago
    Afghanistan is about as irrelevant of an example as I could think of in this case. I struggle to think of ways in which it is even remotely related. War is about supply chains. Even if (big if) you managed to land several tens of thousands of Chinese regulars onto a Taiwanese beach, they are toast if you cannot resupply them. To establish these supply lines you would have to basically eliminate all enemy submarines, surface fleet, aircraft, and nearby airbases. It is a near impossible task. If the Chinese managed to do this, it would easily be the greatest military achievement in human history. It would make D-Day look like amateur hour.
    - mywittyname 5y ago
      This won't be a war. This will be a military showing up and declaring, "this territory is ours" when the established government leadership flees. This is effectively what the Taliban did. But since you struggle with that example, how about looking at Russia's take over of Crimea in 2014? My prediction is, there will be widespread protests in Taiwan, which Chinese sleeper agents will attempt to turn violent. Then Chinese commandos storm the presidential building taking Tsai Ing-wen and her cabinet hostage, the military will be ordered to stand down. Then the subsequent riots will be crushed.

AYBABTME 5y ago

I'm not expressing any position here but it should be noted that the strait between Taiwan and China's mainland is not that wide and any navy would be hard pressed to defend itself against land based anti-ship missiles. It's just very asymmetrical.

yann2 5y ago
The plan is to use Dragons after eggs were found in Henan.