4 ms·

The gulf is HOT right now. And that heat goes pretty deep. I wonder if we'll see a Michael situation, where Ida just continues to intensify as it closes in on

The gulf is HOT right now. And that heat goes pretty deep. I wonder if we'll see a Michael situation, where Ida just continues to intensify as it closes in on land.

dylan604 5y ago
Isn't that precisely what the model shows it doing?
lsllc 5y ago
SSTs are 30-32°C (86-90°F) in the GoM right now: https://ocean.weather.gov/Loops/SST_GMex_SST/image_2021082701.png https://ocean.weather.gov/Loops/SST_GMex_SST/image_202108270...
- dustingetz 5y ago
  Sea Surface Temperature I'm sorry, you're saying the ocean surface is hotter than a heated pool right now? What is the baseline?
  - finiteseries 5y ago
    https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/regsatprod/gom/sst_ts.php https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/regsatprod/gom/sst_ts.php ~26C mean ranging from 23C in February to 30C in August.
  - lsllc 5y ago
    Pretty much. A couple of summers ago I stayed for a late August weekend at Hilton Head S.C. and going into the ocean was like getting into a hot tub. It was actually too warm, not at all refreshing from the 100+F day -- the Hotel pool was much cooler. It was really eye-opening actually.
  - brk 5y ago
    The GoM gets pretty warm (I live on the water just off the GoM proper (Boca Ciega Bay)). Late summer temps in the upper 80s or low 90s are common. Our pool used to heat to 95 before the shade palms grew up. I Don think I can recall the surface temp being less than 80 often, based on the data from my depth sonar on the boat at random times during the ‘winter’.
  - wcoenen 5y ago
    It's not unusual for this time of the year. The thing to look at is SSTA (sea surface temperature anomaly), that will tell you how much the current temperature is deviating from the long term average for this month. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/primary/waves/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-87.81,24.94,1192/loc=-89.091,25.105 https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/primary/waves/ov...
  - dredmorbius 5y ago
    Nullschool's SSTA (sea surface temperature anomaly) gives a good idea. Looks like +1.9C for the northern Gulf. Note the cooler temps in Ida's wake. Hurricanes pump heat from the ocean to the atmosphere. https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/08/25/1200Z/ocean/primary/waves/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-94.47,25.85,1165/loc=-92.362,28.434 https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/08/25/1200Z/ocean/primary... (Time-pinned to an hour ago.)

The gulf is HOT right now. And that heat goes pretty deep. I wonder if we'll see a Michael situation, where Ida just continues to intensify as it closes in on land.

dylan604 5y ago

Isn't that precisely what the model shows it doing?

lsllc 5y ago

SSTs are 30-32°C (86-90°F) in the GoM right now: https://ocean.weather.gov/Loops/SST_GMex_SST/image_2021082701.png https://ocean.weather.gov/Loops/SST_GMex_SST/image_202108270...

dustingetz 5y ago
Sea Surface Temperature I'm sorry, you're saying the ocean surface is hotter than a heated pool right now? What is the baseline?
- finiteseries 5y ago
  https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/regsatprod/gom/sst_ts.php https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/regsatprod/gom/sst_ts.php ~26C mean ranging from 23C in February to 30C in August.
- lsllc 5y ago
  Pretty much. A couple of summers ago I stayed for a late August weekend at Hilton Head S.C. and going into the ocean was like getting into a hot tub. It was actually too warm, not at all refreshing from the 100+F day -- the Hotel pool was much cooler. It was really eye-opening actually.
- brk 5y ago
  The GoM gets pretty warm (I live on the water just off the GoM proper (Boca Ciega Bay)). Late summer temps in the upper 80s or low 90s are common. Our pool used to heat to 95 before the shade palms grew up. I Don think I can recall the surface temp being less than 80 often, based on the data from my depth sonar on the boat at random times during the ‘winter’.
- wcoenen 5y ago
  It's not unusual for this time of the year. The thing to look at is SSTA (sea surface temperature anomaly), that will tell you how much the current temperature is deviating from the long term average for this month. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/primary/waves/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-87.81,24.94,1192/loc=-89.091,25.105 https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/primary/waves/ov...
- dredmorbius 5y ago
  Nullschool's SSTA (sea surface temperature anomaly) gives a good idea. Looks like +1.9C for the northern Gulf. Note the cooler temps in Ida's wake. Hurricanes pump heat from the ocean to the atmosphere. https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/08/25/1200Z/ocean/primary/waves/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-94.47,25.85,1165/loc=-92.362,28.434 https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/08/25/1200Z/ocean/primary... (Time-pinned to an hour ago.)