I think 10% is about right. Geoffrey Moore's technology adoption model says innovators+early adopters = 16%. But the chasm is happening somewhere in the early a

I think 10% is about right. Geoffrey Moore's technology adoption model says innovators+early adopters = 16%. But the chasm is happening somewhere in the early adopting stage. That's probably around the 10% number. If they cross the chasm, they get to change the opinion of the majority. But this happens only for game-changing products and paradigm shifts. It doesn't happen for direct competitors within the same paradigm. For example, just because Bing passes 10% market share, doesn't mean it will eventually replace Google. Direct competitors almost never beat the incumbent leader within the same paradigm, unless they radically change the rules of the game.