3 ms·

That is wild. The situation in UK is nowhere near '99% unvaccinated suffer terrible outcome'. On 20th August, Public Health England published a report that is

That is wild. The situation in UK is nowhere near '99% unvaccinated suffer terrible outcome'. On 20th August, Public Health England published a report that is quite a bit more balanced. From Table 5, pp 22-23, Delta cases: overnight inpatient admissions (inclusion#) all ages unknown 99 <21 days post dose 1 260 ≥21 days post dose 1 689 ≥14 days post dose 2 2,204 unvaccinated 4,033 <50 age group ... ≥14 days post dose 2 366 unvaccinated 3,044 deaths within 28 days of positive specimen date all ages unknown 16 <21 days post dose 1 14 ≥21 days post dose 1 5 ≥14 days post dose 2 679 unvaccinated 390 <50 age group ... ≥14 days post dose 2 27 unvaccinated 72 For all adults percent fully vaccinated is 75%, whereas for <50, percent one dose vaccinated is somewhere between 60-75% https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1012644/Technical_Briefing_21.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/... https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55274833 https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55274833

fy20 5y ago
This may be explained by Simpson's Paradox. Something similar happened in Israel, if you look at the raw case numbers for the current wave, it looks like the vaccine only has a ~67% efficiency: https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-... The UK and Israel both have very high vaccination rates of older people, and lower fully vaccinated rates of younger people. Someone who is 75 most likely has a much weaker immune system than someone who is 25, to the point where someone who is 75 and fully vaccinated may have a much harder time fighting the virus than someone who is 25 and unvaccinated. The data from Israel if broken down by under and over 50s, shows the vaccine efficiency is 92% for under 50s and 85% for over 50s. Israel mainly used Pfizer though, where as the UK mainly AstraZeneca, so there could also be differences there.
- angelzen 5y ago
  Of course Simpson's is heavily at play, of course especially when lumping <25s with >75s. Not sure I see how one can get from the (UK) data to statements like 'more than 99% of recent deaths were among the unvaccinated', which seems off by at least an order of magnitude.

fy20 5y ago

This may be explained by Simpson's Paradox. Something similar happened in Israel, if you look at the raw case numbers for the current wave, it looks like the vaccine only has a ~67% efficiency: https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-... The UK and Israel both have very high vaccination rates of older people, and lower fully vaccinated rates of younger people. Someone who is 75 most likely has a much weaker immune system than someone who is 25, to the point where someone who is 75 and fully vaccinated may have a much harder time fighting the virus than someone who is 25 and unvaccinated. The data from Israel if broken down by under and over 50s, shows the vaccine efficiency is 92% for under 50s and 85% for over 50s. Israel mainly used Pfizer though, where as the UK mainly AstraZeneca, so there could also be differences there.

angelzen 5y ago
Of course Simpson's is heavily at play, of course especially when lumping <25s with >75s. Not sure I see how one can get from the (UK) data to statements like 'more than 99% of recent deaths were among the unvaccinated', which seems off by at least an order of magnitude.