4 ms·

That was a reasonable back of the envelope calculation, and I notice that the criticism of my figures was done without providing better figures. However, I am

That was a reasonable back of the envelope calculation, and I notice that the criticism of my figures was done without providing better figures. However, I am willing to come up with more suitable figures. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-from-covid-by-age-us/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-... says there have been 2,630 deaths from COVID-19 for 18-29 year olds (never mind the suffering COVID-19 causes people in this age range). Something that causes 2,630 deaths is more risky than something causing 229 non-fatal hospital visits. > I think all the unvaccinated want is the same absolute right to decide the same for themselves. In terms of freedom of choice, I think we would be a lot better off just giving our extra vaccines to Mexico until that have a higher vaccination rate; Mexico has, last time I looked, a 25% vaccination rate compared to the 50% vaccination rate in the US. Once Latin America is well vaccinated, we can circle back to the vaccine hesitant here in the US. There was recently a rather morbid conversation on Reddit speculating about how much vaccine hesitancy might help Democrats in future elections: https://old.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/pbeigk/desantiss_poll_numbers_plummet_as_florida_deals/habvbcj/ https://old.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/pbeigk/desantiss_... Not to mention this graph: https://i.redd.it/4o4i7arucpj71.png https://i.redd.it/4o4i7arucpj71.png (Discussion: https://old.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/pbzaeg/oc_usa_covid_cases_per_100k_stratified_by_county/ https://old.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/pbzaeg/oc_... )

incrudible 5y ago
I have remarked upon your numbers in another comment. Why do your own math based on outdated newspaper articles and statistics websites when there are scientific publications and FDA documents to draw upon? Calculating the crude chance of death based on population averages is misleading, because those will have risk groups massively over-represented.
- strenholme 5y ago
  The CDC figure for number of COVID-19 deaths among 18-29 year olds is 2,761. https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Sex-and-Age/9bhg-hcku/data https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Sex... So, guess what, those “newspaper articles and statistics websites” have the same general numbers as more official sources like the FDA; indeed, the CDC’s own numbers are higher than the number I used for COVID-19 deaths among young adults. (And, oh, if you think the CDC’s figures are faulty, I have nothing more to say to you; you’re not looking too good after insinuating that https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.07.23.21260998 https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.07.23.21260998 didn’t attempt to measure total COVID-19 infections, when, in fact, a cursory reading of the paper shows they did) With something as fast moving as COVID-19, the press often times gets accurate figures before they’re formally published. If you want to convince me the numbers I used are wrong, please give me up to date numbers from reliable sources which contradict my figures. Not estimates from a paper written a few months ago. Finally, I need to flat out ask you: Have you gotten the COVID-19 vaccine yet? I got mine months ago. I will not respond to you again until I know your vaccination status.

incrudible 5y ago

I have remarked upon your numbers in another comment. Why do your own math based on outdated newspaper articles and statistics websites when there are scientific publications and FDA documents to draw upon? Calculating the crude chance of death based on population averages is misleading, because those will have risk groups massively over-represented.

strenholme 5y ago
The CDC figure for number of COVID-19 deaths among 18-29 year olds is 2,761. https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Sex-and-Age/9bhg-hcku/data https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Sex... So, guess what, those “newspaper articles and statistics websites” have the same general numbers as more official sources like the FDA; indeed, the CDC’s own numbers are higher than the number I used for COVID-19 deaths among young adults. (And, oh, if you think the CDC’s figures are faulty, I have nothing more to say to you; you’re not looking too good after insinuating that https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.07.23.21260998 https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.07.23.21260998 didn’t attempt to measure total COVID-19 infections, when, in fact, a cursory reading of the paper shows they did) With something as fast moving as COVID-19, the press often times gets accurate figures before they’re formally published. If you want to convince me the numbers I used are wrong, please give me up to date numbers from reliable sources which contradict my figures. Not estimates from a paper written a few months ago. Finally, I need to flat out ask you: Have you gotten the COVID-19 vaccine yet? I got mine months ago. I will not respond to you again until I know your vaccination status.