3 ms·

Sounds like they don't want to base cost on actual driving ability so that they can keep using the models that make it seem like 7 years of increased rates are

Sounds like they don't want to base cost on actual driving ability so that they can keep using the models that make it seem like 7 years of increased rates are justified when it's pretty well known that reaction time peaks early in life - many professional F1 drivers go pro before age 20. Therefore, your program would call attention to the fact that young drivers with no accidents who are competent are heavily overpaying and they weren't interested because it would prove that they are discriminating against the young.

x3n0ph3n3 5y ago
Reaction times aren't everything when it comes to driving. You also have to factor in tendency to speed, tail-gate, drive drunk, or other dangerous driving habits. There may be correlation between those habits and age.
- thatcat 5y ago
  Sure, that is the justification used to continue basing prices off statistical modeling instead of individual testing.
  - x3n0ph3n3 5y ago
    Of course it is! What do you think actuaries do? Insurance is entirely about sharing risks across groups of people.
- iaw 5y ago
  After someone turns 30 (according to AAA [0]) their likelihood of entering an accident decreases until they reach ~70 years old. [0] https://aaafoundation.org/rates-motor-vehicle-crashes-injuries-deaths-relation-driver-age-united-states-2014-2015/ https://aaafoundation.org/rates-motor-vehicle-crashes-injuri...
  - thatcat 5y ago
    The variance overlaps from age 20-59 so you can't statistically differentiate anything conclusive about the difference between those groups. An alternative conclusion is that retired people (65+) don't drive as much and are able to avoid rush hour / high risk times to drive. https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm
    - iaw 5y ago
      Variance overlapping isn't a reason to discount this analysis. Also note that the variance narrows substantially for older age groups. So effectively what the variance says is that some younger people are vastly more responsible drivers than other young people but older people tend to be more responsible in general.
      - thatcat 5y ago
        There could be a number of factors that have nothing to do with responsibility, that's a narrative that gets added to explain the data. You need to do ANOVA test to verify any significant difference in data sets, not look at avg - esp when its not a controlled experiment.

x3n0ph3n3 5y ago

Reaction times aren't everything when it comes to driving. You also have to factor in tendency to speed, tail-gate, drive drunk, or other dangerous driving habits. There may be correlation between those habits and age.

thatcat 5y ago
Sure, that is the justification used to continue basing prices off statistical modeling instead of individual testing.
- x3n0ph3n3 5y ago
  Of course it is! What do you think actuaries do? Insurance is entirely about sharing risks across groups of people.
iaw 5y ago
After someone turns 30 (according to AAA [0]) their likelihood of entering an accident decreases until they reach ~70 years old. [0] https://aaafoundation.org/rates-motor-vehicle-crashes-injuries-deaths-relation-driver-age-united-states-2014-2015/ https://aaafoundation.org/rates-motor-vehicle-crashes-injuri...
- thatcat 5y ago
  The variance overlaps from age 20-59 so you can't statistically differentiate anything conclusive about the difference between those groups. An alternative conclusion is that retired people (65+) don't drive as much and are able to avoid rush hour / high risk times to drive. https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm
  - iaw 5y ago
    Variance overlapping isn't a reason to discount this analysis. Also note that the variance narrows substantially for older age groups. So effectively what the variance says is that some younger people are vastly more responsible drivers than other young people but older people tend to be more responsible in general.
    - thatcat 5y ago
      There could be a number of factors that have nothing to do with responsibility, that's a narrative that gets added to explain the data. You need to do ANOVA test to verify any significant difference in data sets, not look at avg - esp when its not a controlled experiment.