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The first principle for vaccines to be administered ethically is that the benefit must be outweigh the risk. As trials have not completed and more information o

The first principle for vaccines to be administered ethically is that the benefit must be outweigh the risk. As trials have not completed and more information on vaccine side-effects is yet to be accumulated, this risk/benefit can be assessed only speculatively. For instance, this[1] study suggests that the risk of Myocarditis from COVID in young men is six times higher from an infection than from a vaccination. If we assume a gratuitous infection risk of 100%, this may sound like a reasonable benefit. If we however consider that actual COVID infections may be undercounted by a factor of 10[2], the benefit turns negative. [1] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.23.21260998v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.23.21260998v... [2] https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0248946 https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal...

deleted 5y ago
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strenholme 5y ago
What the linked study [1] is saying is that unvaccinated people who get COVID-19 are even more likely to get Myocarditis than vaccinated people; it counters the allegation that people should not get vaccinated because of the risk of Myocarditis. Even if the vaccine increased the risk (it doesn’t), the risk of COVID-19 is orders of magnitude higher than the risk of the Myocarditis heart condition. There have been, from the total of 12,910,312 18-24 year-old people vaccinated, [2] about 229 cases of this rare heart disease (and, in almost all cases, the person was discharged from the hospital the same day with a clean bill of health) That means the vaccine has under a 0.002% chance of causing a very rare but not fatal heart condition. [3] COVID-19, on the other hand, has an overall 1.66% chance of killing someone (38,043,754 cases, 629,644 deaths). [4] I would rather take a 0.002% non-fatal risk than a 1.66% fatal risk. Sources: [1] i.e. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.23.21260998v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.23.21260998v... “Young males infected with the virus are up 6 times more likely to develop myocarditis as those who have received the vaccine.” [2] https://usafacts.org/visualizations/covid-vaccine-tracker-states/ https://usafacts.org/visualizations/covid-vaccine-tracker-st... [3] https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/evidence-grows-stronger-covid-vaccine-link-heart-issue-cdc-says-n1270339 https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/evidence-grows-st... [4] https://samiam.org/COVID-19/ https://samiam.org/COVID-19/ derived from https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data/ https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data/
- logicalmonster 5y ago
  > COVID-19, on the other hand, has an overall 1.66% chance of killing someone (38,043,754 cases, 629,644 deaths). An honest, apples to apples statistical comparison here would compare 18-24 year old death rates to 18-24 year old heart problems risk, not lumping all deaths regardless of age together. > I would rather take a 0.002% non-fatal risk than a 1.66% fatal risk. Statistical problems aside, I’m happy if you take a vaccine or boosters that you feel is necessary for your health. I think all the unvaccinated want is the same absolute right to decide the same for themselves.
  - jyounker 5y ago
    The unvaccinated are volunteering themselves as breeders for the next stronger and nastier version of covid, and they pose an active danger to those who cannot be vaccinated.
    - munk-a 5y ago
      And, honestly, those who have been vaccinated. Covid-19 has been observed to spread more easily in populations with large unvaccinated proportion and end up infecting (and killing) a larger number of vaccinated people. Additionally, I am extremely concerned that their irresponsible actions are going to let Covid-19 mutate enough that it can work out a variant that the vaccine will be ineffective against.
    - strenholme 5y ago
      Agreed. The main COVID-19 mutations of concern right now are happening in other countries where the vaccine is not widely available yet. The Delta variant was first seen in India, the Beta variant was first seen in South Africa, and the Gamma variant was first seen in Brazil. We need to make sure the entire world is vaccinated to stop these mutations from coming out of the woodwork. (See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 for sources and discussion)
    - incrudible 5y ago
      This is speculation. I might as well speculate that a vaccine that does not prevent infection or spread, but also puts selective pressure on the virus to escape vaccine immunity, is likely to lead to a vaccine-escape mutation when administered to a large population. This mutation then poses a risk to those who would need the vaccine that has now become ineffective. The fact that we currently see mutations coming out populations that aren't vaccinated is a number's game. Most of the world population is not vaccinated. Vaccinating the last 30% in developed nations will not change that.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

strenholme 5y ago

What the linked study [1] is saying is that unvaccinated people who get COVID-19 are even more likely to get Myocarditis than vaccinated people; it counters the allegation that people should not get vaccinated because of the risk of Myocarditis. Even if the vaccine increased the risk (it doesn’t), the risk of COVID-19 is orders of magnitude higher than the risk of the Myocarditis heart condition. There have been, from the total of 12,910,312 18-24 year-old people vaccinated, [2] about 229 cases of this rare heart disease (and, in almost all cases, the person was discharged from the hospital the same day with a clean bill of health) That means the vaccine has under a 0.002% chance of causing a very rare but not fatal heart condition. [3] COVID-19, on the other hand, has an overall 1.66% chance of killing someone (38,043,754 cases, 629,644 deaths). [4] I would rather take a 0.002% non-fatal risk than a 1.66% fatal risk. Sources: [1] i.e. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.23.21260998v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.23.21260998v... “Young males infected with the virus are up 6 times more likely to develop myocarditis as those who have received the vaccine.” [2] https://usafacts.org/visualizations/covid-vaccine-tracker-states/ https://usafacts.org/visualizations/covid-vaccine-tracker-st... [3] https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/evidence-grows-stronger-covid-vaccine-link-heart-issue-cdc-says-n1270339 https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/evidence-grows-st... [4] https://samiam.org/COVID-19/ https://samiam.org/COVID-19/ derived from https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data/ https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data/

logicalmonster 5y ago
> COVID-19, on the other hand, has an overall 1.66% chance of killing someone (38,043,754 cases, 629,644 deaths). An honest, apples to apples statistical comparison here would compare 18-24 year old death rates to 18-24 year old heart problems risk, not lumping all deaths regardless of age together. > I would rather take a 0.002% non-fatal risk than a 1.66% fatal risk. Statistical problems aside, I’m happy if you take a vaccine or boosters that you feel is necessary for your health. I think all the unvaccinated want is the same absolute right to decide the same for themselves.
- jyounker 5y ago
  The unvaccinated are volunteering themselves as breeders for the next stronger and nastier version of covid, and they pose an active danger to those who cannot be vaccinated.
  - munk-a 5y ago
    And, honestly, those who have been vaccinated. Covid-19 has been observed to spread more easily in populations with large unvaccinated proportion and end up infecting (and killing) a larger number of vaccinated people. Additionally, I am extremely concerned that their irresponsible actions are going to let Covid-19 mutate enough that it can work out a variant that the vaccine will be ineffective against.
  - strenholme 5y ago
    Agreed. The main COVID-19 mutations of concern right now are happening in other countries where the vaccine is not widely available yet. The Delta variant was first seen in India, the Beta variant was first seen in South Africa, and the Gamma variant was first seen in Brazil. We need to make sure the entire world is vaccinated to stop these mutations from coming out of the woodwork. (See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 for sources and discussion)
  - incrudible 5y ago
    This is speculation. I might as well speculate that a vaccine that does not prevent infection or spread, but also puts selective pressure on the virus to escape vaccine immunity, is likely to lead to a vaccine-escape mutation when administered to a large population. This mutation then poses a risk to those who would need the vaccine that has now become ineffective. The fact that we currently see mutations coming out populations that aren't vaccinated is a number's game. Most of the world population is not vaccinated. Vaccinating the last 30% in developed nations will not change that.