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Why would a mere 2 week quarantine be sufficient to prevent someone coming in from spreading it domestically? AFAIK 2 weeks is only good enough to catch around

Why would a mere 2 week quarantine be sufficient to prevent someone coming in from spreading it domestically? AFAIK 2 weeks is only good enough to catch around 99.99% of cases. That's plenty of cases getting through.

postingawayonhn 5y ago
I don't believe Australia or NZ has had anyone leave quarantine after 2 weeks and then test positive. The only exception might be where there was transmission inside a facility.
- grecy 5y ago
  Actually the famous case that escaped in Adelaide quarantine was exactly that. Guy tested negative before the flight, and on days 2, 7 and 14 of quarantine. Then drives around and spreads it. They assume he caught it on his last or second last day in quarantine. Which is why I had to have tests 72 hours before my flight, then on days 2, 7 & 14 of quarantine, then yet another test on day 16
  - postingawayonhn 5y ago
    I am aware that has happened on a couple of occasions. "might be" was probably the wrong choice of words, "have been" would probably have been better.
- godmode2019 5y ago
  This happened in NZ, so they started separating into cohorts. Old don't mix with new arrivals, previously anyone could go to the common room
- silverpepsi 5y ago
  Well that's just pure luck. Incubation periods of 34 days for this thing are not unknown
Teever 5y ago
I think a generous interpretation of my comment regarding 2 week quarantine would be "the period that is sufficient to catch 100% of active infections of COVID-19." Perhaps that is 2.5 or 3 weeks? Either way, the fact remains that Australia's decision to leave thousands of their citizens stranded abroad and to lock their citizens in their country is both peculiar and unreasonable.
- silverpepsi 5y ago
  I was actually taking that generous interpretation - that you might mean 21 days since that's what HK demanded for example. But my point is that nature doesn't work that way as far as I know. There is no 100% point, just increased 9s on the end of 99.9. Scientists have identified 34 days as what seems like the upper end now, but that doesn't mean we'll never see a case of an infection showing up only after a longer period. Meanwhile if 10,000 people enter the country, 1 makes in to the community and incubates on the 34th day, and things aren't detected immediately with amazing contact tracing it can turn into 1000 cases in no time. All at the incredible cost of already having put 9,999 unnecessarily through a ridiculously long 34 days quarantine. So there is a certain impracticality in this type of thinking, since a human lives for only so long. A human has only so many years of his life with which to develop his career and save for his old age. A lot of 0 covid policy countries are seriously going to spiral into territory where the sacrifice of individual human lives by "portion" is no longer insubstantial if we don't see some 180 degree reversals (perhaps by violent revolt). Like if NZ and AZ carry on for 5 years like I expect them to.

postingawayonhn 5y ago

I don't believe Australia or NZ has had anyone leave quarantine after 2 weeks and then test positive. The only exception might be where there was transmission inside a facility.

grecy 5y ago
Actually the famous case that escaped in Adelaide quarantine was exactly that. Guy tested negative before the flight, and on days 2, 7 and 14 of quarantine. Then drives around and spreads it. They assume he caught it on his last or second last day in quarantine. Which is why I had to have tests 72 hours before my flight, then on days 2, 7 & 14 of quarantine, then yet another test on day 16
- postingawayonhn 5y ago
  I am aware that has happened on a couple of occasions. "might be" was probably the wrong choice of words, "have been" would probably have been better.
godmode2019 5y ago
This happened in NZ, so they started separating into cohorts. Old don't mix with new arrivals, previously anyone could go to the common room
silverpepsi 5y ago
Well that's just pure luck. Incubation periods of 34 days for this thing are not unknown

Teever 5y ago

I think a generous interpretation of my comment regarding 2 week quarantine would be "the period that is sufficient to catch 100% of active infections of COVID-19." Perhaps that is 2.5 or 3 weeks? Either way, the fact remains that Australia's decision to leave thousands of their citizens stranded abroad and to lock their citizens in their country is both peculiar and unreasonable.

silverpepsi 5y ago
I was actually taking that generous interpretation - that you might mean 21 days since that's what HK demanded for example. But my point is that nature doesn't work that way as far as I know. There is no 100% point, just increased 9s on the end of 99.9. Scientists have identified 34 days as what seems like the upper end now, but that doesn't mean we'll never see a case of an infection showing up only after a longer period. Meanwhile if 10,000 people enter the country, 1 makes in to the community and incubates on the 34th day, and things aren't detected immediately with amazing contact tracing it can turn into 1000 cases in no time. All at the incredible cost of already having put 9,999 unnecessarily through a ridiculously long 34 days quarantine. So there is a certain impracticality in this type of thinking, since a human lives for only so long. A human has only so many years of his life with which to develop his career and save for his old age. A lot of 0 covid policy countries are seriously going to spiral into territory where the sacrifice of individual human lives by "portion" is no longer insubstantial if we don't see some 180 degree reversals (perhaps by violent revolt). Like if NZ and AZ carry on for 5 years like I expect them to.