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I'm curious why you think previous infection is not better than Moderna. If we grant that Moderna is better than the vaccine used in the study in the OP, can it

I'm curious why you think previous infection is not better than Moderna. If we grant that Moderna is better than the vaccine used in the study in the OP, can it possibly be a factor of 6 better? a factor of 12? Those are the kinds of numbers they're seeing in this study. Admittedly it's not yet peer-reviewed and maybe those factors get watered down or thrown out, but if they don't, it would look like the difference between vaccine efficacies are down in the noise compared to the difference between any vaccine and natural immunity.

wahern 5y ago
> I'm curious why you think previous infection is not better than Moderna. I was trying to be conservative. I don't have any hard opinion on this one way or another. It seems like a degree of precision we'd be lucky to achieve in the best of times--i.e. when the virus and demographics aren't constantly evolving. And it's a degree of precision that is unnecessary to establish in this particular debate, even if we could. It feels like bike shedding. The question isn't which is better--infection or vaccination. The question is, do we demand that the infected be vaccinated even though the substantial and consistent weight of scientific evidence gives us little reason to believe the previously infected put the population at more risk than the vaccinated, especially relative to vaccines that we affirmatively accept as sufficiently efficacious? The only scientifically justified answer is an unqualified, "No". There are innumerable other questions people can debate, but from a pandemic policy perspective there's no need to venture there. And, frankly, it seems imprudent considering the level of uncertainty surrounding everything--not just the quality and relevance of data, but even if you're technically correct one moment, things can go sideways the next moment, necessitating a change in policy.
- spfzero 5y ago
  Thanks, good points.
- tedunangst 5y ago
  I think you're stuck on the word "previously" infected. If the government says you must be vaccinated or pass an antibody test by Sept 15 to keep your job, what are people going to do?
  - LurkingPenguin 5y ago
    Well, given how many people have already dropped out of the labor market, I suspect some people will use this as another justification not to work.

wahern 5y ago

> I'm curious why you think previous infection is not better than Moderna. I was trying to be conservative. I don't have any hard opinion on this one way or another. It seems like a degree of precision we'd be lucky to achieve in the best of times--i.e. when the virus and demographics aren't constantly evolving. And it's a degree of precision that is unnecessary to establish in this particular debate, even if we could. It feels like bike shedding. The question isn't which is better--infection or vaccination. The question is, do we demand that the infected be vaccinated even though the substantial and consistent weight of scientific evidence gives us little reason to believe the previously infected put the population at more risk than the vaccinated, especially relative to vaccines that we affirmatively accept as sufficiently efficacious? The only scientifically justified answer is an unqualified, "No". There are innumerable other questions people can debate, but from a pandemic policy perspective there's no need to venture there. And, frankly, it seems imprudent considering the level of uncertainty surrounding everything--not just the quality and relevance of data, but even if you're technically correct one moment, things can go sideways the next moment, necessitating a change in policy.

spfzero 5y ago
Thanks, good points.
tedunangst 5y ago
I think you're stuck on the word "previously" infected. If the government says you must be vaccinated or pass an antibody test by Sept 15 to keep your job, what are people going to do?
- LurkingPenguin 5y ago
  Well, given how many people have already dropped out of the labor market, I suspect some people will use this as another justification not to work.