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He has timeliness on the optimistic side but people were skeptical of his claims in the 80s that a computer will win at Chess by 2000 or that the internet will
by Tenoke 5y ago
He has timeliness on the optimistic side but people were skeptical of his claims in the 80s that a computer will win at Chess by 2000 or that the internet will become ubiquitous. He did think a US company will reach 1 trillion $ by 2010 and that speech recognition will be more widely used but even in cases like that he wasn't massively off.
As far as I can tell for decades he's been consistently more right than his critics and often on issues that are a lot harder to get right than simple coin tosses.
- AnimalMuppet 5y agoHe's been right (approximately) on how fast the tech improves. That doesn't tell you anything about how likely he is to be right about the singularity, though, unless you think he actually has a handle on how much tech would have to improve to get us there, which means that he would have a handle on where "there" actually is, in technical terms. I don't see evidence that he (or anyone) has that.