6 ms·

I do not understand what the 5 year plan is. Even less what the 50 year plan is. On one hand: We are blessed to have access to mass genetic vector vaccines. G

I do not understand what the 5 year plan is. Even less what the 50 year plan is. On one hand: We are blessed to have access to mass genetic vector vaccines. Genetic vector vaccines are amazing at shaving off the sharp edge of the pandemic. Even after effectiveness drops against infection, they are still amazing at preventing severe infections. "VE for severe disease is *still high* after 6 months - 94% for ages 40-59, 86% for 60+.", https://twitter.com/_lewisy/status/1430291421085552641 https://twitter.com/_lewisy/status/1430291421085552641. On the other hand: * There is no path to ZeroCovid due to high airborne infectiousness, leaky genetic vector vaccines, immense human global population and reported animal reservoirs. * The genetic vector vaccine effectiveness appears to diminish after ~6 months, thus booster shots. * Leaky genetic vector vaccines are bound to give raise to vaccine-resistant variants, just like incomplete antibiotic courses give raise to antibiotic-resistant bacteria. * Every time a new genetic vector vaccine variant is developed, it takes a long time to pass the FDA tests and even then it carries a tiny, but not zero, risk of ADE. OK, we'll roll the Russian Roulette once. But we can't forever play Russian Roulette with a mutating virus.

websites2023 5y ago
Everyone’s going to get COVID eventually. Natural immunity + 3 rounds of the vaccine are probably enough to make it acceptable level of deadly. “Zero COVID” was never possible.
- Falandafa2021 5y ago
  Only for New Zealand who locked down an entire country over one case
  - hattmall 5y ago
    Unless they lockdown forever it's literally not going to matter. Additionally the longer they delay the acquisition of natural immunity the worse it will eventually be. The best course of action in the begining would have been to encourage only the vulnerable to isolate. Natural immunity is much better than the vaccines. COVID currently is worse for vaccinated people than it was for unvaccinated a year ago. The rate of severe infection with Delta among vaccinated is higher than the rate of severe infection of the general population a year ago with Original COVID. Natural immunity has less than 1% reinfection rate vs a nearly 40% infection rate for fully vaccinated. We talk about how all the current deaths of unvaccinated people could be prevented with vaccines, but skip that they could have also been prevented in 99% of cases by them simply catching COVID last year. Im all for vaccines and vaccine + COVID infection is currently the best protection, but that is an actually riskier proposition than simply having caught COVID in the begining for normal healthy people.
    - zeku 5y ago
      Last medical paper I read was using a cohort of 20,000 people. This paper concluded that natural covid immunity doesn't last forever. Median time to reinfection was 160+ days. Is there new research or something? I keep seeing people talk about this and no one ever provides a source. source: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.13.21249642v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.13.21249642v... Additionally here's a bunch of data that makes me doubt your point about naturally immunity being superior to vaccines: https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/covid-19-vaccine-breakthrough-cases-data-from-the-states/ https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/covid-19-vaccine-breakthrou...
      - angelzen 5y ago
        Appreciate your effort to link to sources. We fundamentally suffer from lack of data: what are the morbidity and mortality by age group, by comorbidity (obesity and diabetes), by unvax / unvax + covid / vax? Furthermore, being 'published' on medrxiv is not a guarantee for accuracy or reproducibility. Cue in the Ivermectin saga... I wish CDC would actually collect basic epidemiological data, but it seems completely disorganized and able to perform simple functions. Is there some alternative source, perhaps in some other country?
        zeku 5y ago
        Sure apologies for linking a preprint. The study I linked earlier went on to be published in Lancet which is a super top tier medical journal. Here is the link: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00675-9/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... Also I find that the NHS over in England collects great data and personally I use them as a primary learning body for covid.
        angelzen 5y ago
        Thank you!
      - peteradio 5y ago
zeku 5y ago
We pretty much can play with vaccines forever. Every healthy responsible person gets a flu shot every single fall, we already do this and no one complains about the long term flu plan. You might be allowing the current discourse to knock your reasoning off track. Not trying to attack you, it's easy to get carried away with something so impactful to all of us.
- criticaltinker 5y ago
  > Every healthy responsible person gets a flu shot every single fall The implication of your phrasing here is that people who do not get a flu shot every single fall are irresponsible - which seems pretty silly to claim given that seasonal influenza does not pose a significant risk to a majority of the population, especially healthy children and adults.
  - zeku 5y ago
    We get flu shots to reduce the incidence of the flu in the population so that we don't kill a bunch of old people a decade too early. You're purposefully ignoring a piece of the "critical thinking" so that you can be anti-science. I'm very disappointed in the anti science comments on HN as of late.
    - AndrewBissell 5y ago
      It's anti-science to say not everyone should necessarily be expected to get a flu shot now?

websites2023 5y ago

Everyone’s going to get COVID eventually. Natural immunity + 3 rounds of the vaccine are probably enough to make it acceptable level of deadly. “Zero COVID” was never possible.

Falandafa2021 5y ago
Only for New Zealand who locked down an entire country over one case
- hattmall 5y ago
  Unless they lockdown forever it's literally not going to matter. Additionally the longer they delay the acquisition of natural immunity the worse it will eventually be. The best course of action in the begining would have been to encourage only the vulnerable to isolate. Natural immunity is much better than the vaccines. COVID currently is worse for vaccinated people than it was for unvaccinated a year ago. The rate of severe infection with Delta among vaccinated is higher than the rate of severe infection of the general population a year ago with Original COVID. Natural immunity has less than 1% reinfection rate vs a nearly 40% infection rate for fully vaccinated. We talk about how all the current deaths of unvaccinated people could be prevented with vaccines, but skip that they could have also been prevented in 99% of cases by them simply catching COVID last year. Im all for vaccines and vaccine + COVID infection is currently the best protection, but that is an actually riskier proposition than simply having caught COVID in the begining for normal healthy people.
  - zeku 5y ago
    Last medical paper I read was using a cohort of 20,000 people. This paper concluded that natural covid immunity doesn't last forever. Median time to reinfection was 160+ days. Is there new research or something? I keep seeing people talk about this and no one ever provides a source. source: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.13.21249642v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.13.21249642v... Additionally here's a bunch of data that makes me doubt your point about naturally immunity being superior to vaccines: https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/covid-19-vaccine-breakthrough-cases-data-from-the-states/ https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/covid-19-vaccine-breakthrou...
    - angelzen 5y ago
      Appreciate your effort to link to sources. We fundamentally suffer from lack of data: what are the morbidity and mortality by age group, by comorbidity (obesity and diabetes), by unvax / unvax + covid / vax? Furthermore, being 'published' on medrxiv is not a guarantee for accuracy or reproducibility. Cue in the Ivermectin saga... I wish CDC would actually collect basic epidemiological data, but it seems completely disorganized and able to perform simple functions. Is there some alternative source, perhaps in some other country?
      - zeku 5y ago
        Sure apologies for linking a preprint. The study I linked earlier went on to be published in Lancet which is a super top tier medical journal. Here is the link: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00675-9/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... Also I find that the NHS over in England collects great data and personally I use them as a primary learning body for covid.
        angelzen 5y ago
        Thank you!
    - peteradio 5y ago

zeku 5y ago

We pretty much can play with vaccines forever. Every healthy responsible person gets a flu shot every single fall, we already do this and no one complains about the long term flu plan. You might be allowing the current discourse to knock your reasoning off track. Not trying to attack you, it's easy to get carried away with something so impactful to all of us.

criticaltinker 5y ago
> Every healthy responsible person gets a flu shot every single fall The implication of your phrasing here is that people who do not get a flu shot every single fall are irresponsible - which seems pretty silly to claim given that seasonal influenza does not pose a significant risk to a majority of the population, especially healthy children and adults.
- zeku 5y ago
  We get flu shots to reduce the incidence of the flu in the population so that we don't kill a bunch of old people a decade too early. You're purposefully ignoring a piece of the "critical thinking" so that you can be anti-science. I'm very disappointed in the anti science comments on HN as of late.
  - AndrewBissell 5y ago
    It's anti-science to say not everyone should necessarily be expected to get a flu shot now?