4 ms·
I was initially concerned that the release of the model would diminish its efficacy but it seems the authors have already taken this possibility into considerat
by hendzen 15y ago
I was initially concerned that the release of the model would diminish its efficacy but it seems the authors have already taken this possibility into consideration.
From the conclusion of the actual paper:
"One might argue that analyses of this kind are useless once publicly known, because they can be invalidated by insurgents’ free will. However, we believe this will not happen for the same reason that all commuters know that a traffic jam will appear every day at rush hour on a certain route, yet many still end up joining it. External constraints of working hours, school schedules, and finite numbers of direct roads mean that such predictability is hard to avoid. Similarly, the spontaneity of fatal attacks by an insurgency is probably constrained by many factors, including the availability of troop convoys, explosive materials, and sympathy within the local population."