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Despite the strict lock-downs, the rate of confirmed new cases has been skyrocketing for the past week in NZ [1] (and many other countries), with no clear end i

Despite the strict lock-downs, the rate of confirmed new cases has been skyrocketing for the past week in NZ [1] (and many other countries), with no clear end in sight. Only ~20% of the NZ population has been fully vaccinated [2]. > In the next week our lockdown will be over and we’ll have no cases > Completely 100% normal prepandemic life all for the easy price of a momentary blip of inconvenience I honestly can't tell if your comment is satire or propaganda. Assuming you've commented in good faith - why do you believe there will be no cases next week? Don't you think it's likely that the prime minister extends the lock-down orders, again? [1] https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/new-zealand#daily-confirmed-cases-how-do-they-compare-to-other-countries https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/new-zealand#d... [2] https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/new-zealand#what-share-of-the-population-has-been-fully-vaccinated-against-covid-19 https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/new-zealand#w...

graderjs 5y ago
I don't want to hurt the feelings of the GP but if this was sincere but inaccurate, I've heard these sort of ideas called, being 'Stockholmed' or having 'Stockholm-syndrome' -- I'm sure that, being under 'lockdown' for a long time, the reality of some proportion of the population developing a Stockholm-syndrome like cultish adoration of their 'overlords' is a psychological probability, unfortunately. I sure hope this person is simply sincere and accurate, or even satirical. It would be mighty sad if this were something else like Stockholmed...:(
- erentz 5y ago
  You appear to just be a troll but in case you’re not and you want to actually think critically: go away and ask some questions, such as why you think this? Who told you? How long has New Zealand actually been in lock down? What has life been like in NZ during those lockdowns? What do you actually think outside of lockdown it has been like in NZ? Why? Go watch some travel vloggers who wound up in NZ (I’ve seen these come up on my feed: Alex the Vagabond, Danegar and Stacey, Gone with the Wynns), life is normal. It’s absurd what people overseas somehow are making up now.
  - graderjs 5y ago
    Thank you for engaging, but Wow! Now you don't have to take out your unhappiness on some poor internet commenter who sincerely meant you no harm. It is quite humorous to me, but I also feel sad for you that you've reacted in this way. The trouble with internet discourse is, if in person, I'm sure you would come around once I reassured you I meant no harm, but on the 'net you will basically be unable to admit you over-reacted on your misinterpretation, and will just have to double down or stay silent. It's rare, but incredibly inspiring online when people can say, "Sorry, my bad, I misread you and over-reacted. I'm sorry" Anyway, I will explain: That you want to read-in a bad intent to a comment that has none...that's just you projecting. Please don't do that--it is against the rules, but, especially don't try to blame someone else for your own feelings here, trying to attack me for how you misinterpreted my comment. OK, that would be nice, yes, mm? :) I said I don't want to hurt your feelings, and modalized my hypothesis with an 'if', and said I hoped it was not the case. Indeed that's exactly how I feel. If you mistook it differently, that's not my problem :) Plus I was talking more about how this could be a factor in general, rather than directly associating it with you, but on account of how I knew you might feel it was associated I lead with how I did not want to hurt your feelings so you knew I wasn't trying to. I'm sorry but if you're only reaction to this idea, that an element of Stockholm syndrome could manifest in populations in lockdown...is to call the speaker 'just a troll', say "go away" and and pretend they're not thinking critically...well it seems the only one resistant to a bit of critical inquiry, is you, in this case, wouldn't you say, hmm? :) Further to try to belittle someone's ideas as being 'just a troll' or not 'actually think[ing] critically' suggests you need to look down on someone with these ideas. Why would that be? Maybe because you fear the ideas have merit, but you have no response to the ideas per se, so you have to convince yourself the speaker is an idiot, so you can 'banish them' as it were from your mind. Problem solved? But it's so abusive to others who meant you no harm...Apart from being bad, in this case, the one resistant to critical inquiry, is clear :) Further your defensive over-reaction implies you think what I said has merit, which would seem to reveal a NZ reality that belies your earnest insistence that it is not the case. Had you not reacted in this way, I never would have suspected NZ was in some sort of majorly restrictive situation--but perhaps it's just your life that is majorly restrictive right now, and you're projecting that? Which is it? Because it seems the mere general suggestion that you may have been looking with rosy colored glasses at something which is more dire than you seem to want to admit...was so triggering for you, that you unloaded like this with zero justification--suggesting that there has to be some reality to the notion I propose. Or maybe your reaction has nothing to do with NZ, and is just simply how you misinterpreted my comment, and then went on a projection-fueled tirade, because you're holding some unprocessed anger wholly unrelated to me. Or maybe the only one trolling was you...a bully looking for a fight on a weak pretext? Either way, please don't mis-read bad intent where there is none and please don't blame others for your own feelings, mate! That's not good boundaries, nor a good way to develop excellent relationships, is it now? :) Don't be toxic! :) Besides... taking the point at hand, we should be open to multiple views, and not forget nuance. Let's not criminalize heterodoxy in the discourse. We should have a plurality of perspectives, particularly in these so-called Western liberal democracies. But granted, such an environment, does not ensure the tolerance of any one individual. Oh well... :)
erentz 5y ago
Time will tell, Delta is a new beast compared to what we dealt with during the first lockdown. But cases are so far following expected trajectory after initiation of level 4 lock down. They go up initially as you are uncovering more cases through testing and tracing contacts. But new spread is only occurring within bubbles, so this hits a peak and begins to decline as the virus burns through it’s reachable population. Outside of Auckland it’s just one new case today so most of the country will be out of lockdown in a week. Auckland will be in lockdown probably for four weeks is my guess based on the last time this happened. https://twitter.com/thoughtfulnz/status/1428840922536570881?s=21 https://twitter.com/thoughtfulnz/status/1428840922536570881?... I can’t speak well to what’s happening in Australia as I am not there, except what I do hear from folks is that NSW let the side down. Going back to the start of the pandemic Australia initially had a US style throw your hands in the air approach at the federal level, but it quickly became apparent NZs ZeroCOVID approach was better, and so the individual states adopted the same approach while the federal government did nothing. An initial pretty hard lockdown last year had to be put into effect because so much spread had been going on, after which they ran pretty good. And if you look outside of NSW they’re still doing pretty good. But NSW were slow to act with a newly confirmed case of Delta and allowed it to spread too far. You really need to go hard and fast for it to work or it just doesn’t. The proof is really in the pudding. 26 deaths since the pandemic started. And most of the time under completely free conditions less strict that the US or UK or just about anywhere: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-stringency-index?tab=chart&country=GBR~USA~NZL https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-stringency-index?ta... So emphatically yes life has been completely 100% normal here outside of the lockdowns. Where are you getting any idea different? What are you imagining is going on here? Why don’t you go browse the New Zealand subreddit to get an idea of life in NZ? Why not go watch one of the daily 1pm briefings on YouTube to get a feel for how a lockdown is managed? I spent the first year of the pandemic stuck in the US, it was a shit show, a disaster situation in which people should have come together, but were pushed apart over made up crap by sociopathic self serving politicians and media. You mention only 20% are fully vaccinated, it’s a bit better than that we are doing about 1% of the populations a day at the moment. I’m not sure why this has any bearing on the discussion though except your grabbing for things to criticize. The time will come to allow the virus to run its course here, hopefully once everyone has been vaccinated so the hospitals don’t get overwhelmed and we don’t have to deal with stories of people dying because hospitals are full as they are in parts of the US right now. It’s expected to have full vaccination by December, the question will be whether to wait for under 12s to be vaccinated and/or a 3rd booster to be given.

graderjs 5y ago

I don't want to hurt the feelings of the GP but if this was sincere but inaccurate, I've heard these sort of ideas called, being 'Stockholmed' or having 'Stockholm-syndrome' -- I'm sure that, being under 'lockdown' for a long time, the reality of some proportion of the population developing a Stockholm-syndrome like cultish adoration of their 'overlords' is a psychological probability, unfortunately. I sure hope this person is simply sincere and accurate, or even satirical. It would be mighty sad if this were something else like Stockholmed...:(

erentz 5y ago
You appear to just be a troll but in case you’re not and you want to actually think critically: go away and ask some questions, such as why you think this? Who told you? How long has New Zealand actually been in lock down? What has life been like in NZ during those lockdowns? What do you actually think outside of lockdown it has been like in NZ? Why? Go watch some travel vloggers who wound up in NZ (I’ve seen these come up on my feed: Alex the Vagabond, Danegar and Stacey, Gone with the Wynns), life is normal. It’s absurd what people overseas somehow are making up now.
- graderjs 5y ago
  Thank you for engaging, but Wow! Now you don't have to take out your unhappiness on some poor internet commenter who sincerely meant you no harm. It is quite humorous to me, but I also feel sad for you that you've reacted in this way. The trouble with internet discourse is, if in person, I'm sure you would come around once I reassured you I meant no harm, but on the 'net you will basically be unable to admit you over-reacted on your misinterpretation, and will just have to double down or stay silent. It's rare, but incredibly inspiring online when people can say, "Sorry, my bad, I misread you and over-reacted. I'm sorry" Anyway, I will explain: That you want to read-in a bad intent to a comment that has none...that's just you projecting. Please don't do that--it is against the rules, but, especially don't try to blame someone else for your own feelings here, trying to attack me for how you misinterpreted my comment. OK, that would be nice, yes, mm? :) I said I don't want to hurt your feelings, and modalized my hypothesis with an 'if', and said I hoped it was not the case. Indeed that's exactly how I feel. If you mistook it differently, that's not my problem :) Plus I was talking more about how this could be a factor in general, rather than directly associating it with you, but on account of how I knew you might feel it was associated I lead with how I did not want to hurt your feelings so you knew I wasn't trying to. I'm sorry but if you're only reaction to this idea, that an element of Stockholm syndrome could manifest in populations in lockdown...is to call the speaker 'just a troll', say "go away" and and pretend they're not thinking critically...well it seems the only one resistant to a bit of critical inquiry, is you, in this case, wouldn't you say, hmm? :) Further to try to belittle someone's ideas as being 'just a troll' or not 'actually think[ing] critically' suggests you need to look down on someone with these ideas. Why would that be? Maybe because you fear the ideas have merit, but you have no response to the ideas per se, so you have to convince yourself the speaker is an idiot, so you can 'banish them' as it were from your mind. Problem solved? But it's so abusive to others who meant you no harm...Apart from being bad, in this case, the one resistant to critical inquiry, is clear :) Further your defensive over-reaction implies you think what I said has merit, which would seem to reveal a NZ reality that belies your earnest insistence that it is not the case. Had you not reacted in this way, I never would have suspected NZ was in some sort of majorly restrictive situation--but perhaps it's just your life that is majorly restrictive right now, and you're projecting that? Which is it? Because it seems the mere general suggestion that you may have been looking with rosy colored glasses at something which is more dire than you seem to want to admit...was so triggering for you, that you unloaded like this with zero justification--suggesting that there has to be some reality to the notion I propose. Or maybe your reaction has nothing to do with NZ, and is just simply how you misinterpreted my comment, and then went on a projection-fueled tirade, because you're holding some unprocessed anger wholly unrelated to me. Or maybe the only one trolling was you...a bully looking for a fight on a weak pretext? Either way, please don't mis-read bad intent where there is none and please don't blame others for your own feelings, mate! That's not good boundaries, nor a good way to develop excellent relationships, is it now? :) Don't be toxic! :) Besides... taking the point at hand, we should be open to multiple views, and not forget nuance. Let's not criminalize heterodoxy in the discourse. We should have a plurality of perspectives, particularly in these so-called Western liberal democracies. But granted, such an environment, does not ensure the tolerance of any one individual. Oh well... :)

erentz 5y ago

Time will tell, Delta is a new beast compared to what we dealt with during the first lockdown. But cases are so far following expected trajectory after initiation of level 4 lock down. They go up initially as you are uncovering more cases through testing and tracing contacts. But new spread is only occurring within bubbles, so this hits a peak and begins to decline as the virus burns through it’s reachable population. Outside of Auckland it’s just one new case today so most of the country will be out of lockdown in a week. Auckland will be in lockdown probably for four weeks is my guess based on the last time this happened. https://twitter.com/thoughtfulnz/status/1428840922536570881?s=21 https://twitter.com/thoughtfulnz/status/1428840922536570881?... I can’t speak well to what’s happening in Australia as I am not there, except what I do hear from folks is that NSW let the side down. Going back to the start of the pandemic Australia initially had a US style throw your hands in the air approach at the federal level, but it quickly became apparent NZs ZeroCOVID approach was better, and so the individual states adopted the same approach while the federal government did nothing. An initial pretty hard lockdown last year had to be put into effect because so much spread had been going on, after which they ran pretty good. And if you look outside of NSW they’re still doing pretty good. But NSW were slow to act with a newly confirmed case of Delta and allowed it to spread too far. You really need to go hard and fast for it to work or it just doesn’t. The proof is really in the pudding. 26 deaths since the pandemic started. And most of the time under completely free conditions less strict that the US or UK or just about anywhere: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-stringency-index?tab=chart&country=GBR~USA~NZL https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-stringency-index?ta... So emphatically yes life has been completely 100% normal here outside of the lockdowns. Where are you getting any idea different? What are you imagining is going on here? Why don’t you go browse the New Zealand subreddit to get an idea of life in NZ? Why not go watch one of the daily 1pm briefings on YouTube to get a feel for how a lockdown is managed? I spent the first year of the pandemic stuck in the US, it was a shit show, a disaster situation in which people should have come together, but were pushed apart over made up crap by sociopathic self serving politicians and media. You mention only 20% are fully vaccinated, it’s a bit better than that we are doing about 1% of the populations a day at the moment. I’m not sure why this has any bearing on the discussion though except your grabbing for things to criticize. The time will come to allow the virus to run its course here, hopefully once everyone has been vaccinated so the hospitals don’t get overwhelmed and we don’t have to deal with stories of people dying because hospitals are full as they are in parts of the US right now. It’s expected to have full vaccination by December, the question will be whether to wait for under 12s to be vaccinated and/or a 3rd booster to be given.